
Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
The fact remains and will always remain that betting blindly on one club to win each time they play is not a good betting strategy, however, as one might expect, some teams will perform better over the course of a period of time than others, and throw in a couple of shocks and you might find profit to be had with bookmakers.
Backing Scottish Football Teams Blind!
We have taken a look at results and odds in the Scottish Premiership to come up with some data sets showing just what return you would have gotten from backing a team to win blind in every game.
2024/25 SEASON RESULTS
Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
---|---|---|---|---|
St Mirren | 38 | 55.05 | 17.05 | 44.87% |
Motherwell | 38 | 52.36 | 14.36 | 37.79% |
St Johnstone | 38 | 43.05 | 5.05 | 13.29% |
Hibernian | 38 | 40.72 | 2.72 | 7.16% |
Dundee United | 38 | 38.89 | 0.89 | 2.34% |
Celtic | 38 | 35.72 | -2.28 | -6.00% |
Dundee | 38 | 35.53 | -2.47 | -6.50% |
Rangers | 38 | 34.13 | -3.87 | -10.18% |
Ross County | 38 | 33.13 | -4.87 | -12.82% |
Kilmarnock | 38 | 32.19 | -5.81 | -15.29% |
Aberdeen | 38 | 31.09 | -6.91 | -18.18% |
Hearts | 38 | 28.76 | -9.24 | -24.32% |
Here we can see that the usual Glasgow duopoly has been broken, and it is St Mirren who have earned the crown of being the most profitable club from a betting point of view. The Paisley outfit managed to finish sixth in the final table and although they missed out on European football, they do have reason to celebrate.
Celebrations that come with having recorded a ROI of 44.87% across the season. £38 spent backing Stephen Robinson's side and that £38 would be converted into £55.05 - a profit of £17.05.
While the bulk of that profit would have come at the expense of Rangers. With both a home win and a draw recorded against the Ibrox outfit, you can begin to understand why St Mirren top the 12-team table of profitability.
Breaking the Glasgow Duopoly
St Mirren finding themselves top of the pile, then followed by Motherwell in second. The Fir Park outfit being one of five that recorded profitability at the end of the season.
Their record at the end of the season was an overall return of £52.36 - leading to a profit of £14.36 and an overall ROI of 37.79%
Motherwell finished bottom of the table and St Johnstone in third finished bottom of the Scottish Premiership ladder.
The Perth-based club having to deal with demotion to the Scottish Championship and the only thing that goes some way to softening the blow is the 13.29% profit they recorded over the course of the campaign.
£5.05 profit and almost double that of Hibernian in fourth at a profit of £2.72. That also ended up being £1.83 more than Dundee United in fifth.
Motherwell: Profitability Runner Up
While we cannot overlook the Glasgow giants and in what was another season of playing second best, shock results that would lead to the eventual sacking of former Rangers boss Philippe Clement and see them fail to generate a profit at the end of the season.
The Ibrox outfit were only eighth in the list with a loss of £3.87 and a negative ROI of 10.18%
By comparison, their nearest neighbours also failed to turn a profit across the duration of the season and although Celtic scooped league honours once again, a few bumps stopped them being in the black.
Brendan Rodgers' men returning £35.72 from the £38 outlay - a negative ROI of 6%
HOW TO LOSE MONEY QUICKLY
Of course, for every winning the story some have lost out and when you look at Hearts, they are the club that are propping up the other 11 on the list.
A dissapointing season for the Jam Tarts as although they were expected to be the best of the Glasgow rest, they failed to land a blow on either Rangers or Celitc and found themselves registering a bottom half finish.
A £38 outlay would only return £28.76 and with your pockets being £9.24 lighter, this would represent a 24.32% loss for anyone who decided they wanted to back the struggling Tynecastle side week in and week out.
Hearts: A Lesson in Losses💔
Things were not a great deal better of Aberdeen either. Not quite on the scale of Hearts deficit but in a season where they started so brightly, the Pittodrie outfit had to make do with a loss of £6.91 and a negative ROI of 18.18%
As for Kilmarnock and Ross County, both teams failed to register a profit and at some cost to each.
For the former their downturn in performance would eventually see Derek McInnes trade Kille for Hearts.
For the latter their stint in the Premiership would finally come to an end after a playoff defeat at the hands of Livingston.
Kilmarnock recording a negative ROI of -15.29% after £38 spent, Ross County recording 12.82% by comparison.
DRAWING THE COMPARISONS
Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
St Johnstone | 13.29% | 3 | 12 | -9 |
Motherwell | 37.79% | 2 | 8 | -6 |
St Mirren | 44.87% | 1 | 6 | -5 |
Dundee | -6.50% | 7 | 10 | -3 |
Ross County | -12.82% | 9 | 11 | -2 |
Hibernian | 7.16% | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Dundee United | 2.34% | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Kilmarnock | -15.29% | 10 | 9 | 1 |
Celtic | -6.00% | 6 | 1 | 5 |
Hearts | -24.32% | 12 | 7 | 5 |
Rangers | -10.18% | 8 | 2 | 6 |
Aberdeen | -18.18% | 11 | 5 | 6 |
While another way to measure the success of these clubs or the lack thereof, is by looking at how the ranks in the end-of-season profit table compare against the final positions in the 2024/25 Scottish Premiership.
Both Rangers and Aberdeen are the teams that have the biggest disparity between where they finished and how profitable they were across the course of the season. The Gers and the Dons both being six positions worse off in probability than their actual league placing.
Next up is the pair of Celtic and Hearts. Wide disparity for the pair, each of them five places worse off in terms of profit when compared to where they finished in the ScottIsh Premiership table.
From there, a trio of clubs all found themselves a position worse off. That trio consisted of Hibernian, Dundee United and Kilmarnock.
While rhe team with the most positive swing between league placing and profit ranking was St Johnstone. They may have only finished bottom in last season’s Scottish Premiership, as we now know they were the third most profitable club when using our betting methodology.
Top of the comparitive pile but bottom of the table that really counts - how much would they pay to swap positions with Motherwell who are second in this chart?
This means if you were to follow this system, then the key to profitability is hoping that the giants of the Scottish game have an off day and if they do, the road to end-of-season profit becomes very much on.
Methodology and Editorial Information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
Data from https://www.football-data.co.uk/
METHODOLOGY
- £1 stakes
- £1 goes on each team to win their Scottish Premiership fixture, of which they are 228 in total
- If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up
- If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded
- With each team playing 38 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.