Introduction to Laying - part 3

Introduction To Laying - Part 3

This is longer than intended but I could find no sensible place to split it. 

One market I venture into every season with reasonable success is the Premier League Relegation market. 

You can view the long term Premier League Betting Odds on the tipping pages. 

This may be a season-long investment if bets are struck before the season commences, or can be treated as an in-play market and entered into ( and of course, exited from ) at any point during the season.

That can make it an excellent low-risk opportunity for anyone wishing to get the feel of laying ( or as an introduction to trading )

This due to the relative lack of urgency involved, compared to the speed of decision making required with racing, or even a single football match.

Straight Bets Pre-Season

There will be a very wide range of odds to choose from. 

These may vary from as little as 1.40 up to the Betfair maximum of 1000. 

When laying in this market bear in mind you will need to pay out if the team finishes in any of the three relegation places, not just bottom. 

Treat it as you would a PLACE market in racing and you will not go far wrong. 

Short Term Fixtures

During the season, look out for teams with an unusually difficult or easy batch of games.

If you feel a side is entering a period of difficult games ( and that they will NOT upset the odds too much ) it is often a poor time to lay them as they will shorten if results go according to plan. 

Effect Of Surprise Results.

A single match can make a big difference to a team's odds. 

Taking QPR's win at Chelsea earlier in the season as an example would show that their odds for relegation drifted dramatically as they picked up about 2.5pts more than the match odds would have predicted. 

Had they lost the match, it would have had little bearing on their relegation price as it was a match they were expected to lose. 

The later it is in the season, however, the greater this effect will be.

With a little practice, you may be able to predict the effect of a series of matches ( as a whole rather than individually ) and either back or lay a team in anticipation of the team's odds moving in line with their results.

When you achieve that, you would ( albeit without possibly realising the fact ) be in a position to close your first successful trade by making the opposite bet to the original at more favourable odds.

If things go against you, a decision has to be made as to whether to let the bet run and hope the tide turns or take a guaranteed slight loss by making the second bet at unfavourable odds. 

Use The Correct Side On The Exchange And The What If feature.

A mistake that novices often make is to enter their bets on the wrong side of the Betfair screen. 

Particularly if used to BACKING horses on Betfair.

It may be automatic to go to that side of the screen when wishing to place a lay bet. 

Use the What If option to display the potential effect of placing your bet. 

If this is not what you intended, cancel the bet and start again. After confirming the bet it will be too late. 

LSP v LTL.

Whether you prefer to use LSP ( a level stake bet ) or LTL ( a level liability bet ) is a matter of choice.

Laying a string of short-priced winners is worse on LTL.

A string of medium / long priced winners ( even within your favoured range ) can be crippling for LSP. 

Combining the two is more work but will minimise the fluctuations on your bankroll.

Beware Back Fitting.

When formulating a system, back fitting results is a sure way to lose when BACKING selections, it can have even more serious consequences if LAYING. 

Any rule incorporated into a LAY system MUST be justified, similarly removing something from a ‘ proven ‘ system should have a logical as well as historical foundation.

Beware Of Historic Odds.

This can be a minefield for the unsuspecting. 

A winning horse with an LSP of 5/1 should not always have been 5/1.

 If a BACKING system can show a profit treating it as 5/1 that is fine but the same does not necessarily apply to a LAYING system.

The strength of the market, the number of runners and other factors could mean that instead of your anticipated BSP being in the region of 7.00 it may well be approaching double figures. 

The effect on favourites may be less, with bigger priced horses the effect is likely to be much greater. The safest ( but not infallible ) way around this one is to use BSP when initially devising a system.

I mentioned the Premiership Relegation market earlier as an in-play option, which is after the first match of the season has kicked off. 

After every round of matches, you will have the same information as virtually everyone else with which to judge the current value of your bets and have time to act on it before the next fixtures. 

With horse racing, it is a totally different matter. 

With TV pictures being a few seconds delayed and a second or two to hit a button on the keyboard, a lot can happen between what you see and what you can do about it. 

If that wasn't bad enough, there will be people ( on course or with very fast BOTs working for them ) that already know what you are about to find out! 

An excellent example was the 15.20 at Sedgefield on Friday 5th ‘ what happened next ‘ would have got it wrong TWICE. Imagine being in a position to see the end of the race before EITHER of those race changing moments and be in a position to react to BOTH before the general public saw EITHER! 

Again on Sunday 7th, there was a horse that traded at 1000 and it did not appear on the TV screen until far too late to react to its sudden presence. At this stage laying in running on racing MUST be left to those who know what they are doing.

The only exception to this is should you wish to leave an in running LAY to trade any pre-race BACK bet you may have made. 

In this case, you must remember to press the KEEP button at the time of placing the bet, otherwise, it will be cancelled at the off if unmatched. 

When laying horses you should look at it as a long-term proposition. 

Making steady gains rather than spectacular profits. 

As a punter, you may back an occasional 20/1 winner.

As a layer, the chances of laying a 1/20 loser are very small. 

Not just because they don't lose very often, they simply don't exist!

Overall Liability.

Not everyone will agree with me on this one, but if I have laid England to win the World Cup to a liability of £2000,

If people THEN want to back Iceland to win at 1000, I would be delighted to relieve them of £2. 

The reasons are simple: it would not affect my overall liability ( at least until such time as I traded out on England ) and if I didn't accept the bet, someone else would and THEY would be £2 better off instead of me. 

I do NOT readily advocate laying to such extreme odds in other situations.

However, opportunities do exist. 

If someone had asked this time last year ‘ will they find Richard III under a car park in Leicester during 2012, nobody in their right mind would lay a bet at 1000/1. 

If the question was ‘ would they find him alive whilst digging ‘ I for one would be at the front of the queue to lay that IF it was a very short turnaround! 

Remember that although you will win the bet, £1000 will be tied up for every £1 ( before commission ) that you will eventually make. That is the exposure factor mentioned previously.

Express Settlement.

Exposure, the amount reserved by Betfair in case you need to pay out, has to be taken into account in all long term markets. 

Some markets now have EXPRESS PAYOUT which means bets on the season-long football markets will be settled once a team can no longer win, or equally when a player gets knocked out of a tennis tournament or misses the cut in golf.

What Can Go Wrong ?

Results, greed and complacency but not necessarily in that order.

LAYING is no more immune to these ailments than when backing horses.

If anything, complacency can be a bigger enemy when laying as after getting accustomed to laying a few losers, the winners come as a shock to the system. Panic may set in and all rational thinking flies out of the window, swiftly followed by your cash!

Cancel At Start Of The Event

Betfair has three options when laying for a horse race. 

They are KEEP, CANCEL, and TAKE SP. 

Cancel is the default, and unmatched bets will be cancelled at the off unless either of the other options is selected.

For most Football matches the options are CANCEL and KEEP.

But for events such as the Premiership Winner and Relegation, unmatched bets will normally be void at kick-off in the first match of the season and bets will need to be placed again. 

Except in most unusual circumstances, Ante-Post bets on non-runners or teams that did not enter/qualify will be treated as LOSERS on Betfair.

Betting Exchange Resources.

That concludes a fairly in-depth analysis of the basics of laying. 

Even so, there will be points I have omitted or may not have explained clearly. 

Please feel free to ask any questions and they will be answered as time permits. 

Further reading is available via the betting school articles below:

Laying and Exchange Advice

Advanced Laying And Exchanges