Dutch football - knowing the league, knowing your bets

I have been watching Dutch club football for as long as I can remember and one of the reasons probably is that I grew up when the Dutch national team was one of the best in Europe in the early 90s and their approach to football with the new modern academies, was always admired by media and specialists alike. I confess that I enjoy Dutch matches more than even English or Spanish ones and as I grew up more aware of different betting markets, I realised enjoyment actually has a lot to do with the entire philosophy of Dutch teams and that philosophy is incredibly helpful to punters looking for easy money. In this short blog I will bring to your attention my observations on that Dutch philosophy and how it translates into stats, which in the end make one very specific market a real treat to those paying enough attention.

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WHAT IS DUTCH CLUB FOOTBALL ABOUT?

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Instead of slowly building towards my conclusion, I will hit you from the start. Dutch club football is all about export at the moment. Not that this wasn't the case years ago when the likes of Ruud Gullit, Frank de Boer, Dennis Bergkamp, Frank Rijkaard and Marco van Basten were dominating the biggest European leagues, but those superstars used to spend sufficient time with their local clubs before endeavouring to conquer the big game in Italy, Spain or England. Bergkamp for example has scored more goals for Ajax than Arsenal and same goes for van Basten, de Boer and the others. That is what made Ajax one of the most successful clubs in European football in the late 80s and early 90s. They were a team that won the European Cup, the UEFA Cup and the Cup Winners' Cup in a matter of a decade, which will probably never happen again given how football has changed in just 20 years' time. The other former powerhouses such as Feyenoord and PSV also slowly but certainly lose out their European profile and more often than not concentrate all their efforts on the league or local cup rather than some ground-breaking European campaigns. The absolute low for PSV probably was last year when they were losing games to teams such as Ludogorets and Odessa. Making it past the Europa league group stages has become something of an achievement for Dutch teams and the occasional Ajax win in the Champions league is never accompanied by a trip to the knock-out stages. The reason for all that apart from the commercialisation of modern football is the aforementioned policy of export. Players in their early 20s who are obviously talented enough to make it through the demanding academies of the top clubs often leave for the greener pastures of top European leagues and facing the likes of Arsenal and Leverkusen is much more challenging to them than facing Willem II and Dordrecht.
The policy of export is not exclusive to the top clubs alone. Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord do not only produce talented players that are shipped abroad after a season or two anymore, but take the very best youngsters from basically every other club in the country. The Dutch league and the majority of the top flight teams, are just not competitive enough financially to be able to retain the services of talented players. The most recent example I can think of is with FC Groningen 17-year old star Richairo Zivkovic who was headed for Ajax merely one season into his professional career. The reason behind such moves - funds, needed for the functioning of the club. Without big time TV rights income or much European success, 80% of the clubs must sell in order to survive and are willing to accept any remotely respectable offer. The teams outside the top three of four are so desperate at times that even Bulgarian teams find it cheap to shop in Holland. While Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord obviously have the flexibility to keep their teams intact for a little while longer, they also give in under the financial pressure of the big spenders. That in itself makes continuity a serious problem for Dutch club football as teams could go as far as having seven or eight new starters in the beginning of a season compared to a year ago.
While that obviously makes the local league not at all competitive and obviously downgrades it to the mid-level of European football, it actually helps the national team a lot. Like mentioned, players who at the age of 21 or even younger go abroad and compete against the likes of Arsenal and Leverkusen on a weekly basis mature much quicker than those who dominate Willem II and the less talented of their countrymen time after time. Looking at the most recent line-up of the national team, we see that there no players from local teams outside the big three and guys such as Martins Indi, de Vrij, Fer and Blind already well established names abroad merely in their early 20s. In fact, this formula is so solid that even Belgium are implementing it with early export of their most valuable players, which ultimately equals sacrificing the local league in favour of a strong national team.

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KNOWING THE LEAGUE, KNOWING YOUR BETS

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My very first rule when looking for good bets is to know what I bet on. Just recently I spoke with a person who blindly bets on hundreds of leagues, markets and teams, without ever even watching most of them and my advice was simple - SPECIALISE! When it comes to the Dutch club football, all these somewhat gloomy, depressing observations I presented above, culminate in what I consider one of the most giving general betting conclusions, which on top of it is supported by trends and stats. Dutch football suffers from lack of continuity, players move around constantly, new players are introduced. Those more perceptive of you probably know what I am about to say already, namely that Dutch football is all about goals. Imagine half the teams in a league having to sell four of five of their regulars just so they can exist and the replacements coming either from the academy or the lower leagues are thrown into the deep right away. That is the perfect recipe for mistakes and the only logical way to address them is obviously by playing more open football where you can cancel out the conceded goals by trying to score more goals. This has been the case for years when it comes to Eredivisie or the Jupiler League for that matter. I firmly believe that the totaalvoetbal in its modern state is what distinguishes Dutch club football from those rich, money-first leagues which get all the attention. Not that I have kept complete record or anything, but at one point early this season, I watches around a dozen Dutch games and not even one of those had less than 10 clear cut chances for goal. Teams from “all walks of life” were observed and to be honest, I have never had that much fun even with the Champions league and the national teams. The only time I have seen Dutch teams go out with defending in mind was when they play some of the big three on the road or when the game is actually determining whether or not a team gets relegated and even then it is not set in stone that they will chase a specific score.
As I mentioned, the actual stats and trends support these theories of mine and it has been the case at least for the past three seasons in the top two Dutch divisions. They are always near the top of all European leagues in the numerous goal markets. In 2014/2015, the Jupiler League (second level) is averaging a little over 3.3 goals per game while Eredivisie is not that far behind with 3.1 goals per game. In terms of specific markets, the one that comes to mind immediately is the so popular OLBG strategy, presented by Micko70 about finding the Over 0.5 bets (Turning £10 Into A Small Fortune Within 3 Months). If you are looking for suitable leagues to implement that, Holland is the place to go as while I struggled to find specific stats about 0.5, those about 1.5 goals say it all. Close to 85% of the games in the Jupiler League go over 1.5 and 81.3% of the Eredivisie games follow suit. I took the time to quickly check some of the last rounds in those leagues, just so I can offer something to help out that 0.5 goal strategy and I discovered that in the Eredivisie only one of the last 45 games has ended 0:0 while in the Jupiler League that number is one in 55. A further research into the specific teams will surely help you out limit the possibility of getting that 0:0 game as it took me basically a minute to single out the teams most likely to finish 0:0 in the Jupiler League for example. To those, who prefer to play big, the stats for over 2.5 and even over 3.5 goals are also very giving. The Jupiler League rides a 66% over 2.5 strike-rate while the Eredivisie is at 59%. There are teams who are way above that rate and while bookies obviously know that too, odds in the excess of 1.50 to 1.67 on certain overs are not a rare occurrence.
Both teams to score, individual teams goals, total time of goals…the markets which could be exploited based solely on the nature of Dutch club football are limitless. Of course, keeping track of player movements, especially defenders is crucial too in order for us to not deviate from the “scientific” side of betting but that is not too challenging to do if one is committed to knowing those leagues and let's not forget that while not centre of attention or media hype, teams who have more than a handful of 3:2s and 4:3s in a season are if not anything, at least entertaining to watch. I would say why not entertain ourselves a bit more by making good money out of those goals? It is all about that totaalvoetbal, isn't it? ------------------------------------------------------
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