Coming up with a strategy on the goal scorers market

In recent weeks, I endeavored on a quest to see if I can get some sort of logic behind goal scorers as this market has always been very intriguing with its solid odds.

Understandably it is also extremely difficult to create some sort of strategic approach that can provide both security and value.

I came up with several points on how to at least try and make money out of goal scorers and most importantly, find value rather than just backing the obvious star-forwards, who often ride odds under 2/1 for anytime or under 4/1 to score first.

If this is an area of interest for you as a punter please check out the betting school article titled betting systems. 

Good players in weak teams value bets

I must confess that this approach is not scientific in any way, but has helped me a lot in smaller European leagues, 

In these European leagues, we see a clear difference in class and quality between teams. 

As we know, when a favorite face an outsider, the players on the top of the goal scorer list come from the favorite in all cases, therefore offering us no value or at least not a bet risk-worthy that offers returns worth risk-taking.

 In such situations comes the good players on weak teams approach which basically takes the probability of the outsider eventually scoring a consolation goal. 

Here is a game between Wolves and Sevilla where Sevilla were the favourites

• Wolves 3.7
• Sevilla 2.25
• Draw 3.2

The best prices FGS for the weaker team was Raul Jimenez at odds of 6.75 with 888sport and his AGS odds were 3.55. 

We need to look at players, who score often enough for this weaker team, and there we have our value, worth risk-taking. 

The same could be implemented in any similar situation, where we have a good in-form player on a team that is expected to lose, or has been losing frequently as more often than not a favorite concedes when a game is decided.

Non-forward penalty-takers and team captains 

Another important factor that can lead to value is the probability of penalities being awarded and who usually takes them. 

While forwards take penalties more often than not, with certain teams captains and midfielders step up. 

Manchester United were awarded a record 14 penalties in the 2019/20 EPL season, and that season in all competitions was awarded 20 in total. 

Marcus Rashford scored 6 in the EPL and missed 2, Bruno Fernandez in the EPL scored 4 and missed none.

Had you noticed early enough plenty of winning bets on AGS could have been placed.  

The second and third line of offense

Recently on the OLBG forums, I came up with this cute little term “lines of offense”. 

What I mean by that is just the simple formation of a team and the possible rotations of players from game to game. 

Since forwards will always be forwards and them scoring will always offer us less value, it is worth monitoring when certain midfielders are being given smaller or bigger role in the attacking strategy of a team. 

We were discussing the goals Yaya Toure scored earlier in the season for Manchester City and I came to realize that his dry spell that followed the 6 goals in 8 games line, was attributed to the different responsibility he is given by the manager. 

When Toure was scoring at will, he was often playing right behind the center forward and had a ton of chances created for him by the forwards simply winning the ball and playing it back or him just moving closer to the penalty area off the ball. 

Coincidently Toure stopped scoring the moment Negredo moved behind the forward; hence Negredo started scoring the goals, which were going to Toure before. I

 have spoken to numerous people, who generated losses on this market because they failed to understand how the formation actually dictates the likelihood of a player scoring.

 For that reason alone it is worth waiting to see how the manager starts a game and make notes of any changes in positioning and overall strategy of the particular team week after week.

The obvious connection between the goals market and the goalscorer market

Lastly, it is vital when we look for value on goal scorers to always do our homework on the easier over/under market and research the leagues that generate a higher percentage of “overs”. 

It is not science that a league where teams score more goals will offer more possibilities on different players scoring. 

Liverpool when winning the 2019/20  EPL had 17 different goalscorers. 

Also, look to the top scorers that represent teams in the relegation zone with Danny Ings scoring 22 times foe Southampton who early in the season flirted with relegation. 

Over 2.5 goals Stats

When looking for AGS OR FGS its best to focus on leagues with the most goals. 

You can see in the 2109/20 season that the Germany Bundesliga and the Norwegian Eliteserien of the major leagues would have been the best chance of finding a bet on the over 2.5 markets.