Premier League Statistics from different angles

Premier League Statistics from different angles

Introduction

For each of the last 12 seasons, I have kept records of  EPL results. 

premier league

One extra piece of data that I have maintained is the odds available at kick-off. 

To keep these as meaningful and consistent as possible, only a few of the leading bookmakers' odds are used.

The data has then been split both by results and odds in order to see whether any 'unusual' trends develop. 

These are the findings with 2018/19 included. 

Circumstances have led to time being on the short side, but it is hoped that more narrative can be added in the lead up to next season.

As ever, any comments or suggestions added to the blog will be answered.

For those readers interested in data, stats, and football form analysis please check out the betting school article - how to assess football form.

RESULT OF THE MATCH Based on HOME DRAW AWAY

Season Home Draw Away
2007/08 355.89 371.79 292.53
2008/09 372.41 359.13 338.84
2009/10 430.36 361.44 272.06
2010/11 392.46 415.75 348.20
2011/12 374.86 363.50 413.31
2012/13 349.24 405.72 344.88
2013/14 395.60 311.82 400.03
2014/15 384.85 354.52 383.24
2015/16 353.63 411.28 428.54
2016/17 414.18 344.57 309.21
2017/18 395.48 404.37 326.18
2018/19 411.82 282.83 375.62

The above table shows the returns to a 1 pt stake for every match by season. In general, the returns for home wins are far more consistent than those for draws and away wins.

The average return by season has been HOME 385.90 DRAW 365.56 AWAY 352.72.

RESULT OF THE MATCH Based on FAVOURITE DRAW UNDERDOG

Season Favourite Draw Underdog
2007/08 396.78 371.79 251.64
2008/09 370.46 359.13 340.79
2009/10 372.86 361.44 329.56
2010/11 362.08 415.75 378.58
2011/12 367.28 363.50 420.89
2012/13 374.39 405.72 319.73
2013/14 420.67 311.82 374.96
2014/15 368.46 354.52 399.63
2015/16 335.21 411.28 446.96
2016/17 420.44 344.57 302.95
2017/18 369.28 404.37 352.38
2018/19 380.65 282.83 406.79

The above table shows the returns to a 1 pt stake for every match in each season. Again, the favourite returns are more consistent. 

It is possibly no coincidence that the season with worst returns for favourites, best for underdogs, and only just short of best for draws was when Leicester unexpectedly won the title with several fancied teams under-performing.

The average return by season has been FAVOURITE 378.21 DRAW 365.56 UNDERDOG 360.41.

ODDS ON favourites

This survey commenced life as an attempt to see how closely odds related to goal difference (supremacy) and while that continues, obviously the data for any subsection is rather small. However, it has thrown up the unexpected. Backing all ODDS ON favs would have shown a profit, and this can be explored further. As this was so unexpected, there is currently no split between home and away, or specific ranges.

Season Bets Returns
2007/08 213.00 232.21
2008/09 190.00 197.43
2009/10 209.00 206.13
2010/11 197.00 171.60
2011/12 200.00 198.43
2012/13 190.00 198.19
2013/14 201.00 214.87
2014/15 201.00 210.50
2015/16 185.00 172.31
2016/17 223.00 239.49
2017/18 216.00 208.29
2018/19 214.00 230.11
Average 203.25 206.63

I did not anticipate this section would show any sort of profit and it has yet to be split into the results of home favourites and away favourites. I may also be able to find if there is a range of odds hat consistently returns a profit. 

Searching for DRAWS

Season Homes Draws Aways
2007/08 175
101
104
2008/09
173
97
110
2009/10
193
96
91
2010/11
179
111
90
2011/12
170
93
117
2012/13
166
108
106
2013/14
179
78
123
2014/15
172
93
115
2015/16
157
107
116
2016/17
187
84
109
2017/18
173
99
108
2018/19
181
71
128
Total
2105
1138
1317
Average
175.4
94.8
109.8

The shortage of draws this season (71) can’t entirely be put down to the gulf in class between the top few teams and the rest. However, only two of the previous eleven seasons saw fewer than 90 draws, 78 in 2013/14 and 84 in 2016/17.

Any clues to CORRECT SCORES

I now have statistics for the previous 12 seasons, so the calculation may be done covering 4560 matches, a reasonable sample. These figures show the number of draws by frequency of home and away favourites, along with the respective annual season %.

Draws Home Fav Season % Away Fav Season %
0-0 259 8.18% 100 7.18%
1-1 331 10.45% 153 10.99%
2-2 175 5.52% 68 4.89%
3-3 28 0.88% 15 1.08%


That does not look significant at first glance, but on closer inspection, there is a slight bias in favour of score draws with an away favourite and a massive difference in favour of 0-0 draws with home favourites. Other scores are detailed later.

Have statistics / trends changed much over 12 seasons?

With a template in place for each season's statistics, I took the opportunity to check this season’s figures against those for the previous 11 seasons. These are my findings.
This blog now covers 380 matches per season over 12 seasons, so 4560 in all.
To call it a blog may be slightly distorting the situation though. The object of this particular exercise remains to offer as much information in as small a space as possible. It can then be an easy reference point without a load of clutter.
On the downside, the onus will be more on any reader to interpret the statistics relevant to themselves.

BOKO (Best Odds at Kick Off), These are compiled using just a few of the leading bookmakers.

Season Odds Overround %
2007/08 103.26
2008/09 102.95
2009/10 102.83
2010/11 102.07
2011/12 101.62
2012/13 100.77
2013/14 100.80
2014/15 100.77
2015/16 100.88
2016/17 100.96
2017/18 101.13
2018/19 101.27

After 5 seasons where the % overrounds had steadily shrunk, they were constant for 2 seasons, before each of the last 4 have shown an increase on the previous year.

UNDER / OVER 2.5 Goals

Season Over 2.5 Goals Under 2.5 Goals
2007/08 171 209
2008/09 182 198
2009/10 200 180
2010/11 207 173
2011/12 204 176
2012/13 212 168
2013/14 196 184
2014/15 184 196
2015/16 200 180
2016/17 205 175
2017/18 194 186
2018/19 204 176
Average 196.58 183.42

 

The number of overs grew steadily and reached a peak in 12. They have dropped since but generally remain at a higher level than several years ago.

The overall figure is 51.73% over 2.5 goals for 12 seasons.

BTTS

This has been completely random as far as I can see. The two lowest figures were found in the season with fewest goals and a season with one of the highest totals.
For the record, these were the average figures for the 12 seasons.

07/08 to 18/19 Average Percentage
BTTS 193.00
50.79%
Home Only
99.83
26.27%
Away Only
57.25
15.05%
Bore Draw
29.92
7.87%

 

This season:

2018/19 Actual Percentage
BTTS 195 51.31%
Home Only 97 25.52%
Away Only 66 17.37%
Bore Draw 22 5.79%

 

GOALS in a SEASON

Overall number of goals:

Season Goals Scored
2007/08 1000
2008/09 943
2009/10 1054
2010/11 1064
2011/12 1061
2012/13 1063
2013/14 1052
2014/15 975
2015/16 1026
2016/17 1064
2017/18 1018
2018/19 1072

 

GOALS in a MATCH

These are the averages per season since 2007/08:

Goals In A Match Average Per Season
0 29.92
1 64.67
2 88.67
3 83.92
4 61.00
5 30.25
6 13.00
7 4.83
8 2.42
9 0.75
10 0.50
11 0.08


The totals for 6+ goals in a match over the 12 years have been 22 12 26 26 23 25 24 16 23 23 16 23.

Exact Goals in a Match (2007/08 to 2010/11):

Goals Per Match 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
0 27 42 32 25
1 74 72 59 54
2 108 84 89 94
3 67 85 87 94
4 58 56 59 61
5 24 29 28 26
6 12 7 12 19
7+ 10 5 14 7

 

Exact Goals in a Match (2011/12 to 2014/15):

Goals Per Match 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
0 27 35 27 31
1 53 61 75 77
2 96 72 82 88
3 93 91 70 85
4 57 64 63 56
5 31 32 39 27
6 12 13 17 9
7+ 11 12 7 7

 

Exact Goals in a Match (2015/16 to 2018/19):

Goals Per Match 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
0 32 27 32 22
1 70 59 67 55
2 77 88 87 99
3 85 83 83 84
4 67 73 53 65
5 26 27 42 32
6 16 13 10 16
7+ 7 10 6 7

 

Here's a breakdown of Over 1.5, 2.5 & 3.5 goals per match over the past 12 seasons:

Season Over 1.5 Goals Over 2.5 Goals  Over 3.5 Goals
2007/08 279 171 104
2008/09 266 182 97
2009/10 289 200 113
2010/11 301 207 113
2011/12 300 204 111
2012/13 284 212 121
2013/14 278 196 126
2014/15 272 184 99
2015/16 278 200 116
2016/17 294 205 123
2017/18 281 194 111
2018/19 303 204 120

LEVEL STAKES returns

Returns for HOME DRAW AWAY

Level stakes of 1 pt on all Home teams would have returned an average of 385.90 but this was due to a large degree on a very high figure in one year. The last 3 seasons have produced 3 of the top 5 returns.
Level stakes on the Away team varied enormously from 272 to 413 leaving an average of 352.72.
Level stakes on the draw returned an average of 365.56. This was a particularly bad season, returning just 282.83 pts. The previous lowest was 344.57.

Returns for FAVOURITE DRAW UNDERDOG

Blindly backing all favourites would have returned 378.21, the draw 365.56 and the underdog faring worst of all at 360.41.

ODDS ON FAVOURITES

As stated earlier, I do not currently have a split for Home v Away favs. Part of the reason for that is I am still in shock about the profit shown at level stakes over 12 years!
An average per season of 203.25 bets with a return of 206.63: virtually the same as when recorded after 8 seasons. This included a 25.40 pts loss in one season that somewhat put a dent in the overall figure.

Matches with Home favourites

These consistently outnumber the matches with Away favourites roughly in the ratio of Home 70% Away 30%
The seasonal average is 264/380 (69.47%) and the return for backing Home is 263.79 Draw 259.65 Away 238.30.

Matches with Away favourites

The seasonal average is 116/380 (30.53%) and the returns being Home 122.10 Draw 105.91 Away 114.42.

BACKING the DRAW

While backing draws blindly would have produced an average loss of about 11 pts per season from 380 bets, backing the draw where there was a big priced underdog in the hope that the outsider could manage a draw would have been significantly worse.
Draws are rather unsurprisingly more common when the sides are more evenly matched but of course, this is reflected in shorter odds for the draws.
To reduce the number of bets, the relative home and away odds can be used instead of the draw odds.

#1 Backing the draw when both sides are priced at evens or higher would have yielded an average annual profit of 6.48 pts from 176.42 bets @ ROI 3.70%
#2 Backing the draw when both sides are priced between 2.50 and 3.00 would have yielded an average annual profit of 2.01 pts from 37.60 bets @ ROI 5.34%.
#3 Backing the draw when both sides are priced between 2.50 and 3.50 would have yielded an average annual profit of 3.87 pts from 60.80 bets @ ROI 6.38%.

In the table these show as:-

#1 Narrow #2 Tight #3 Odds Ag

  Narrow Tight Odds Ag
Bets 729 451 2117
Wins 232 141 647
Returns 775.48 475.10 2194.43
P/L 46.48 24.10 77.43
Per Year 3.87 2.01 6.45
ROI 6.38 5.34 3.66

All three ranges had an LSP loss this season and in 4 of the 12 overall. #2 and #3 had 6 consecutive winning seasons prior to this.

CORRECT SCORES

The 12 most common scores, along with a home/away favourite split are as follows. The numbers represent the average occurrence per season over the whole period under review: all other scores have less than 10.

Match Score Average Home Fav Away Fav
1-1 40.33 27.58 12.75
1-0 38.50 30.83 7.67
2-1 32.42 24.67 7.75
2-0 31.92 28.17 3.75
0-0 29.92 21.58 8.33
0-1 26.17 13.83 12.33
1-2 25.67 13.83 11.83
2-2 20.25 14.58 5.67
3-1 18.33 15.50 2.83
3-0 16.75 15.67 1.08
0-2 16.42 6.42 10.00
1-3 10.83 4.67 6.17


Perhaps the stand out figure is the 2-0 score which is so rare with an away favourite.

PERFORMANCE by RETURNS

For teams that have played in the Premier League since the 2007/08 season, here are their average returns per season:

Team Home Away Total
Arsenal 19.35 16.91 36.25
Aston Villa 14.85 21.61 36.45
Birmingham 17.35 11.90 29.25
Blackburn 16.33 17.49 33.83
Blackpool 16.09 36.19 52.28
Bolton 18.39 14.14 32.53
Bournemouth 18.80 17.69 36.49
Brighton 21.42 10.70 32.12
Burnley 25.99 16.18 42.18
Cardiff 3.17 3.34 6.51
Chelsea 18.65 18.37 37.02
Crystal Palace 17.80 29.78 47.58
Derby 5.00 0.00 5.00
Everton 20.86 15.11 35.97
Fulham 20.48 11.18 31.66
Huddersfield 16.20 11.88 28.07
Hull 23.16 18.32 41.48
Leicester 22.48 19.89 42.36
Liverpool 18.33 18.35 36.68
Man City 21.73 17.71 39.44
Man Utd 20.49 18.33 38.82
Middlesbrough 14.10 8.30 22.40
Newcastle  21.59 17.08 38.68
Norwich 18.79 18.16 36.95
Portsmouth 15.54 14.42 29.96
QPR 17.45 15.22 32.67
Reading 17.39 8.79 26.18
Southampton 15.95 15.44 31.39
Stoke 23.18 15.33 38.51
Sunderland 16.44 18.44 34.88
Swansea 20.07 22.75 42.82
Tottenham 20.46 18.83 39.30
Watford 21.14 20.16 41.30
WBA 18.10 21.64 39.74
West Ham 20.53 17.91 38.44
Wigan 18.38 20.38 38.76
Wolves 19.87 18.65 38.52

Certain teams seem better value to back blind than others. Blackpool actually lead the way with a return of more than 52 pts over 38 matches but I am going to concentrate on teams that have played at least 5 of the last 12 seasons at this level.

HOME

12 teams are in profit: from the top.

Burnley (av 25.99), Stoke, Leicester, Manchester City, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, Manchester United, Fulham, Tottenham, Swansea, and Arsenal (19.35)

AWAY

7 teams are in profit: from the top.

Crystal Palace (av 29.78), Swansea, West Brom, Aston Villa, Wigan, Watford, and Leicester (19.89).

COMBINED

12 teams are in profit: from the top.

Crystal Palace (av 47.58), Swansea, Leicester, Burnley, West Brom, Manchester City, Tottenham, Manchester United, Wigan, Newcastle, Stoke, and West Ham (38.44),

PERFORMANCE by POSITION

Trends suggest that the top teams represent little value due to the number of matches they must win to make a profit.

The 2018/19 season shows the following leading the way in each section. As you will see, they are mainly mid-table sides.

HOME Newcastle, Wolves, Leicester, Bournemouth, Burnley, Arsenal.

AWAY Crystal Palace, Leicester, Cardiff, West Ham, Wolves, Tottenham.

COMBINED Crystal Palace, Leicester, Newcastle, Wolves, West Ham, Cardiff.

Only Chelsea who topped the list won the title in 2016/17 but did not top either the home or away list. No other team has topped the list and finished in the top 5.

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this blog

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!

We detected you are connecting from United States. We have a different section in our site for users from your country.

You are not logged in.
__user_name_placeholder__ avatar Hi, username! Logout