Football Betting - Using Statistics

Much tends to be made about the value of statistics in betting, 

Many of the most popular articles on OLBG talking very positively about betting statistics in relation to football form

However is it feasible it is to place bets solely based on statistical analysis, strike rates, and LSPs when it comes to systematic statistical betting?

And in my mind most importantly, which statistics are actually relevant?

In a time where we now seem to be inundated with various football statistics - be it through commentary during the game, punditry after a game, or social media feeds and websites of stat compilers, it's fairly easy to get caught in a mindset whereby statistics may be the only thing that matter when it comes to placing your bets.

Having trialed a few different statistic models to help my football betting in particular, and someone who will almost always find reasoning in statistics when placing my bets (oftentimes to either back up my initial thoughts or simply change my mind and prevent me from betting on a game).

I think there's a pretty good discussion to be had about how useful they are and, more to the point, which ones I tend to use and how I aggregate them.

Overall Form

Firstly, overall form. This is likely the base point for almost anyone involved in football betting. Even your average accumulator punter who puts a fiver on a selection list on a Saturday will quantify teams that have a better chance with their league position relative to the opponents league position.

It's clearly an important stat but often it can be misleading and I've found the overall discrepancy in prices to be more regular simply because of this, rather than what I consider more relevant form. Relevant form is something of a muddled term, but I'd qualify it as home form vs. away form and recent form. 

I generally have a rule to myself not to back against clubs with new managers in charge for 3 games because of the impact they may have on the dressing room, and this is one of the ways in which I find the overall form (or seasonal form) can be a bit skewed. Statistics don't take into account injuries, managerial changes, opponent strength, etc. and that is simply where they fall short.

Relevant Form (Home vs. Away)

Home and away form, in my mind, is fairly key to my betting. 

Perhaps the strongest example that comes to mind from this season in Premiership games in QPR, who at the time of writing have lost all their away fixtures (10), but only 3 at home.

 Again, the bare reflection of those statistics is somewhat misleading - QPR may have only lost 3 games at home so far this season, and lost all 10 away from home, but they are yet to play 5 teams occupying the top 7 spots in the league at home, and of the 7 sides around them at the foot of the table, have only faced 1 away from home. 

Generally when looking into a game in which QPR are involved, I would find it more accurate to provide both sides as stated above in any reasoning, and think it could be fitting to add that 16 of QPR's 19 points have come against bottom-half teams, while all 19 points have come at home. 

Considering the stage at which we are at in the season, it's a bit more obvious that they, therefore, haven't played the clubs around them in the league on the road, although I would generally try to mention such things anyway. A quick mention should also be made of the effect of playing on a short break (for example, after European matches) - where both Everton and Tottenham have seemed to struggle this season.

Recent Form

Having touched on recent form and its faults (they share those similar to seasonal form in terms of injuries, managerial changes, transfers, etc.) it's one that can certainly be useful in longer-term betting and I like to make use of it. However, upsets do happen as we all know - how many times has an accumulator failed because of the one team you thought was almost certain to win?

Obviously there is the old saying about betting on derby matches, but despite being a Tottenham fan I didn't really see any way of us beating Chelsea on New Years' day and bet accordingly. 

Likewise, the weekend just passed I was fairly confident of Derby beating Nottingham Forest at home. Again it was a derby, but all the form pointed to a Derby win. I wonder how many accumulator slips were torn up because of that early kickoff. Or in Spain recently when coming back from the winter break, but Barcelona and Real Madrid lost away from home.

Relevant Form (vs. Teams of x Performance)

Relevant form also comes outside of home and away betting and again, I touched on it earlier. The quality of the opponent is difficult to measure exactly because all the failings of the system in the short term are multiplied when comparing with another team for whom those same failings are in effect. 

Obviously over the course of a season the table will eventually even itself out, but there are always instances of outliers. West Ham, for example, have been having a very good season but how likely are they to keep it up? Again, much like QPR they are still to play 5 of the top 8 away from home and have lost 5 of 6 matches against teams above them in the table (they currently sit 7th). 

While this is an abstract comment and honestly, less important in West Ham's case unless they go through a distinctly poor run of form and drop away, it's worth noting. 

They've done exceptionally well against teams below them in the league - in particular at home - but there are often instances where teams have muddled form against teams they'd be expected to beat but seem to get the wins against those rivaling them for the area of the table in which they'd expect to finish.

So with those main factors in mind, and flaws being found in general with statistics, where do they tend to thrive? Especially given prices for the 1x2 market rarely tend to be all that inviting.

The answers tend to lie predominantly in the Asian Handicap markets, or Goals Markets (Both Teams to Score and Over/Under x Goals). The latter is generally the second type of regular accumulator you'll see, again most regularly with someone cursing their luck at one of the teams not scoring and letting down a large return.

Again, I tend to look the all the factors listed above when deciding on my bets, but to go into such detail for every game without a marker to start is extremely time-consuming. 

It's by no means the best way but a quick browse at a league table in full will show goals scored and conceded and I tend to find that a good place to start. Luckily, because we have such broad access to statistics nowadays, there are plenty of options to locate tables which show only form of teams when away from home, which is often where I start with these sort of selections. 

A high scoring road team is my first port of call simply because the majority of teams are better playing in front of their own fans and away teams tend to be more likely to set up in a more defensive manner. 

Obviously this is a vast generalisation, and even when seeing high figures it's always best to discount outliers and take averages without them (how likely, for example, is a 1-8 scoreline, yet it skews the numbers heavily).

The above isn't by any means ideal and systematic bettors would be advised to create models rather than having to go through such a painstaking process for every game, but when I write games up it makes for a nice starting point. 

Having made a shortlist, the next obvious filter is how many goals those teams concede on the road, the strength of the teams they score and concede to and against (again, often using relevant form), and then, finally, head to head.

Head to head can be one of the worst statistics in my mind when it comes to football betting, but can also be one of the most useful. The reason I say worst is because oftentimes the results won't be relevant as squads, managers, etc. have changed significantly, but the reason it can be useful is the mental stigma attached to some grounds for some teams. Leagues I have found it to be very useful in terms of goal markets betting are La Liga and the MLS, and I'm sure there are more with strong trends I don't know about.

Football Statistics Conclusion

A concise conclusion to demonstrate the statistics I find most valuable in my football betting, then. 

This list doesn't contain the only statistics I use, but those I tend to use as go-to's for identifying shortlisted bets.

• Seasonal Form
• Relevant Seasonal Form (Home vs. Away)
• Recent Form
• Recent Relevant Form (Home vs. Away)
• Relevant Form (vs. teams of x performance, including Home vs. Away)
• Relevant Head to Head Results (no longer than 3 years previous)

So there you have it - those tend to be the main statistics I use when I'm looking at a game on which to bet in the three main markets. 

Personally I think there's a lot to be said about compounding any statistical basis for betting with research into the teams themselves, and in the long run, the knowledge gained from reading about those teams will enhance your betting opportunities, but to not use such a valuable resource could be considered foolish for anyone serious about making money from betting. 

Further reading on how to assess football form and statistics is available here.