Value Betting In Running
I was looking to gain an advantage in Championship Football by studying what has previously happened to the odds when a match goes in play.
Pre-match football prices often offer little betting value as the information now available to the odds compilers is so comprehensive.
English football favourites tend to be so short that there is little to get excited about.
However, in running betting can offer excellent value prices as traders react when a goal is scored.
The team leading CAN BE very poor value, and the team losing CAN BE excellent value.
For those readers new to in-running opportunities please check out the betting school in running betting basics article.
In Running Value
If you think there is little value pre-match on a favourite then check their in running odds when they go a goal behind - you will be pleased!
In Running Championship Betting
From 216 Championship matches so far this season the team that took the lead were pegged back 77 times to 1-1.
That is around 35%.
And is around 4.3 matches per week.
Here is a set of results from week 11 with teams equalising highlighted.
|Match||1st Goal||2nd Goal||3rd Goal||4th Goal||5th Goal|
|Birmingham v Bournemouth||0-1||0-2||0-3||1-3||
|Blackburn v QPR||1-0||(1-1)||2-1||3-1||
|Brentford v Middlesbrough||0-0||
|Derby v Barnsley||0-1||0-2||
|Huddersfield v Luton||0-1||(1-1)||
|Norwich v Swansea||1-0||
|Notts Forest v Wycombe||1-0||2-0||
|Rotherham v Preston||1-0||(1-1)||2-1||
|Sheffield Wednesday v Millwall||0-0||
|Watford v Coventry||1-0||(1-1)||1-2||2-2||3-2|
|Reading v Stoke||0-1||0-2||0-3||
|Cardiff v Bristol City||0-1||
Sometimes the favourite scores first and sometimes it’s the outsider.
- Favourites Scoring First 38
- Outsiders Scoring First 39
It is better from a profitable point of view if the fav scores first as the price of the favourite becomes even smaller, but even if the outsider scores first there will be a laying opportunity on the team that scored first.
You could if you wish just lay/trade the favs as those prices will shrink appreciably, and the odds on offer small.
In this group of matches so far this season in the Championship, teams leading 1-0 were pegged back to 1-1 the following number of matches.
|Week 18||2 Matches|
|Week 17||4 Matches|
|Week 16||3 Matches|
|Week 15||6 Matches|
|Week 14||5 Matches|
|Week 13||4 Matches|
|Week 12||4 Matches|
|Week 11||4 Matches|
|Week 10||5 Matches|
|Week 9||3 Matches|
|Week 8||6 Matches|
|Week 7||7 Matches|
|Week 6||5 Matches|
|Week 5||5 Matches|
|Week 4||4 Matches|
|Week 3||3 Matches|
|Week 2||4 Matches|
|Week 1||2 Matches|
In Running Example
- Watford were 2.75 pre-match they scored in the 12th minute and went into 1.7.
- The longer the game goes on at 1-0 the shorter the team-leading becomes.
- That is when I laid them NOT TO WIN.
- A draw or a Bournemouth win and I by laying them would profit if Bournemouth equalised.
- In the end, Bournemouth equalised in injury time, and the game finished 1-1.
As the season progresses I will add more examples of both winning trades and those that didn't work.
In Running Trading Strategy
I prefer to lay the team that scored, but if the price of the losing team becomes very attractive (Bournemouth were available with 5 minutes to go at 7.8) then that is an option.
Obviously, at what minute of the game the goals is scored has a bearing on prices, a goal scored in the 1st minute by a rank outsider may not shift the odds as much.
You do of course need to decide on which games the leading team can be taken on when they score.
The team that is behind who may have decided to try and be secure pre-match will now have to attack if they want to get something from the game, their motivation, because they are behind, will be different.
I would not suggest a blanket approach to laying teams when they take the lead, knowing the teams and the form they are in will be valuable to you when clicking the lay button.
There are also other betting exchange markets that can be utilised in play when a team has taken the lead such as
- Correct Score
- Next Goal
- Asian Handicap
Ultimately you have to decide where the best value lies on the betting exchange,
I prefer to keep it simple and just lay the leading team in the 1x2 market in the matches I have selected.
1-0 Laying Example
On 22/11/2020 I traded the following two games, in both cases, the away team was leading (perfect opportunity).
I like it when away teams score first because the home team does not need to change their style of play, they started the game wanting to attack so will continue.
The away team who are leading will now change their original plan and become more defensive, looking to hang on to their lead.
Laying teams who are leading at such short odds means your liability is not huge
Remember the idea is to lay the team that scores first, and when/if the team equalises green up for a profit.
The draw in both cases was available around 4/1.
This match went against me as Middlesbrough did not score, the lay bet was a loser.
|Match||Norwich||Norwich Odds||Draw Odds|
|Middlesbrough v Norwich
This match went in my favour when QPR equalised in the 77th minute.
You can view the draw odds before QPR scored
|Match||Watford||Watford Odds||Draw Odds|
|QPR v Watford