Betfair Laying - Taking it further

What Makes A Good Lay

There is no hard and fast rule here, but consider that there is a huge difference between the thought processes required when backing a winner and those required when laying a loser.   

Obviously, we do not want the lay odds too high. From a personal point of view, I never lay anything above 5/1. Remember, we are talking of laying and not trading. 

Each race day, you have, on average, 90 horses to choose from who are under 6/1 (7.0).

The skill is going through the list or race and finding possible lays. 

Here is an example of a week day in October 2024 of all the horses under 7.0. 

Those creating their own tissue rather than a system will have this part automated as anything better than the tissue maybe deemed a value lay. 

 If not creating a tissue, it simply becomes a case of what is perceived to be a ‘good lay price for any selected horse or horses.

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You will need to retrain your brain to look for horses that will not win and find races that give you the best chance of finding losers.

Your first task is to study the cards and betting and look for races where there are:

• 1. A weak favourite
• 2. A race packed with possible winners 

Many races can be discarded as unsuitable quite quickly by doing this. Some will have much bigger fields, where the favourite is, say, 6/1. Your risk at 6/1 is obviously much greater than if the favourite is, say, 2/1. 

Some races will have a rock-solid favourite who continues to shorten in the betting market. 

If you do this first, you should be able to narrow down the races to study. 

Even a cursory glance through a race card often identifies several that you consider will fail to win. 

They will usually be outsiders and may be too big a price to risk laying them, you need to find underpriced horses at the head of the market who you consider will not win.  

Several things can happen to a well-fancied horse you back that ultimately prevent it from winning.

It may be stating the obvious, BUT the same things can happen to a horse you lay 

A  crucial lesson is that just as you will be BACK losers, you will certainly LAY winners.

Laying a winner is no more of a criminal offence than backing a loser. However, some inexperienced layers will react differently to losing money in this manner compared to backing one of their inevitable losers.

Your Study

The following sections need to be studied in your laying quest, all will help point you towards possible lays. 

Odds

The bookmakers know their stuff, they also have way more resources than the average layer. 

To win money we need as much on or side as possible. 

Below is the percentage breakdown of winning horses in 2023.

The figures quoted stay roughly the same year after year, if you are laying the outright favourite you have around a 35% chance of it being a winner. 

The shorter price the favourite the more likely it is win, with around 58% of odds on favourites winning in 2023. 

But as you can read  65% of outright favourites lose and 42% of odds on favs lose. 

Study the odds and markets, in time you will be able to pinpoint weak/strong favourites. 

Race Percentages

Every race has odds available, these odds are created by the bookmakers giving them a profit whatever the result. 

Some races allow them a huge percentage profit such as the Grand National, other races have much smaller bookmaker profit (the overround).

Working out an individual meetings percentages on each race can pinpoint a particular race where a lay will become more obvious. 

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Class

In general terms, horses in better class races are used to winning races. 

The vast majority in lower class races are equally used to losing them. 

So that is a good place to start, but not all lower grade races merit the same consideration.

I steer clear of Group races and sellers on the flat, and in the winter game National Hunt Flat races and Hunter Chases. 

However, apart from the logic behind it, this is mainly a personal preference.

Jumping Ability

Some horses will have a string of F's and U's in their form line indicating falls and unseated rider.

Whilst there is a difference between standard and brush hurdles, the main differences here are the type and severity of fences at various courses.

Be wary of horses with an apparently poor record at one track and now running where the fences are easier.

Similarly. if a horse has a dodgy record of jumping it may be worth opposing even if many factors would encourage you to back it.

Jockeys

Has the jockey been specifically booked for the horse, the top jockeys are in demand  and the trainers often seek out a marquee jockey if they think "today is the day for their horse".  

Has a claiming jockey been booked to take off weight? Some amateurs and claimers are excellent value and are only getting that allowance due to them not having had sufficient rides and winners. 

If it looks like a jockey has gone to a meeting for a specific ride take note and be cautious of laying that horse. 

Trainers

Check the trainers strike rate at the course, anything above 25% should be noted and caution taken with laying their horses. 

On the reverse of this those trainers with high strike rates at the course are often overbet and their animals can start at short odds, something we as layers are looking for. 

The top trainers obviously have more winners than most but they also have losers. 

Rating

Handicappers have an Official Rating (OR) allotted by the BHA. 

The layer needs to be aware of their historical (OR) and the grade of race they have been competing in.

If a horse is rated 75 and is running in a 75-90 handicap at a Grade 1 track then he is at the bottom of the ratings, if the race is packed with animals rated much higher then the task may be beyond him

There are many that will come close to winning but always just fail once their mark gets too high or the standard of race is beyond them. 

Trip and Going

When looking to back a horse it is advisable to see how it has performed over a certain trip or on certain types of ground. 

Although this is a good measure of a horse's winning chances, solely laying a horse on account of trip or distance should be treated with caution. 

Reliability And Consistency

One may like to back reliable, consistent horses expecting to get a run for your money. 

Perversely this is also a good point when laying. 

This type of horse can and will have an off day. 

What is far less likely is that they will suddenly run to a much better standard.

Speed Ratings

A factor that should be considered is can the horse run fast enough? 

Speed ratings are available from a host of sites including the Racing Post.

If a horse has never run as fast as many of its rivals then this should be noted. 

Left or Right Handed Courses

Some horses have a marked preference for running in one direction. 

This is accentuated when a horse jumps predominantly to the left or right as a lot of ground can be gained or lost.

All of the above will assist you in finding possible lays, the more you know the better chance you have of finding winning lays. 

Laying Conclusion

Laying horses skilfully takes time to master. You need to fully understand how odds, both from the bookmakers and on betting exchanges, work. 

Liabilities need always to be managed and monitored. As always you should always gamble responsibly.

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