Tom Segal's Pricewise tips - how to use them for profit

Tom Segal and Pricewise. Punters either love him or hate him. Bookies just hate him. Well, they probably don't hate him, just his knack of picking big-priced winners.
Tom Segal's Pricewise tips - how to use them for profit
Darren Brett
Darren Brett Tipster Competition Manager

Horse Racing, greyhounds and snooker specialist with thirty years experience of writing about sport across multiple platforms. A QPR and Snooker fan

Pricewise - Do You Follow?

Tom Segal and Pricewise have been with us since OLBG was created in 2002. Many members swear by his selections and the bookies fear him.

So, how can punters make the best of Pricewise? 

There's no doubting the extraordinary success, but that success has come at a cost. It is such a high-profile column that bookies are extremely wary of it.

How Bookmakers Work and Create Odds
ALSO READ

How Bookmakers Work and Create Odds

Therefore, it sits on top of their risk priorities every weekend or major meeting, so much so that it is extremely difficult to get on with best betting sites at the recommended prices. 

In recent times the way that the Pricewise tips are released has changed. It used to be that there was a mad scramble to get a physical copy of the Racing Post as early as possible first thing on the morning of a big race meeting. 

Then the event of digital newspapers meant that the selections were accessible online from 3am. 

Now though, Segal's best Pricewise Tips tips are released as part of the top-level subscription package (Ultimate Members' Club) of the Racing Post at around 6pm the previous evening. 

Segal does still tip up additional horses in the digital newspaper but these appear to be no longer given at a recommended price. 

For example, On Saturday 11th February 2023, Segal gave two tips in the Betfair Hurdle via the Ultimate Members' Club pages, each WITH a recommended price. 

Newbury Handicap Hurdle Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends
ALSO READ

Newbury Handicap Hurdle Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

He then gave two additional tips via the digital newspaper which were given WITHOUT a recommended price. 

As it happens, one of the selections given without a suggested price won at 16/1!.

When odds are recommended, they only last for minutes, if at all in some cases, and punters are left with the choice of taking shorter odds or simply not betting - not ideal when one wins and the Racing Post trumpet announces in bold type yet another bookie-basher for the column.

First, you have to understand the reason behind a Pricewise selection. 

Tom Segal doesn't approach a race looking for the winner.

Bookmakers Reaction
Along with many high profile tipsters, the bookmakers are aware when the tips are placed and often react by cutting the odds.

If that sounds strange, then join the many who feel that way and probably don't follow the column as a result. 

That said, his column isn't simply about highlighting big prices. 

A selection has to have a relative chance to win, but that is most importantly allied to a price bigger than Segal thinks it should be. 

The whole ethic of the column is based around value, and that's the key to what we can consider here. 

Master the Art of Value Betting and Maximize Your Winnings
ALSO READ

Master the Art of Value Betting and Maximize Your Winnings

When Pricewise puts up a horse at 25/1, then that's the value. 

If, by the time you get round to betting, the horse has dropped to 14/1 (yes, that's what happens), the option of betting the horse isn't really an option at all.

"Why," you may ask since he's tipped it?"

It's simple, really. If 14/1 was the original price for the horse, it is almost guaranteed it would not have been put up as a selection. 

That's the golden rule in value-betting, when there is no value, there is no bet.

Laying Pricewise Selections

Yes, that's right. You could lay them on the exchanges instead. 

Apart from extremely rare occasions, the odds on Pricewise picks tumble rapidly. 

They'll get to a point where laying becomes an option. 

The losing runs of Pricewise picks mean that - numerically at least - you'll win by laying more often. 

Betfair Laying - Taking it further
ALSO READ

Betfair Laying - Taking it further

Care needs to be taken to make sure that the odds you lay don't still offer value to the backer.

If we take our 25/1 example again, that price will contract rapidly and quickly. 

If we're correct in the assumption that the true odds could be around 16/1, then anything below that could be valuable for a lay.

It's not uncommon at all for a PW 25/1 pick to be as low as 10/1 come the off, and that is definitely a lay option.

The same advice about a betting bank also applies here, although the approach is slightly different.

Laying Selections
When a price contracts this gives the shrewd punter the opportunity to be against the horse and a lay bet can be an option.

You will not have long losing runs when laying PW picks, but you do need to have enough to cover wins. 

Tom Segal rarely has two wins in one day, and it is also not common for him to have two winning weekends. 

However, he did have one famous winning run several years ago which saw him pick a winner on TEN consecutive Saturdays. 

That was nothing short of extraordinary and will probably never be repeated, but it does show the importance of having a betting bank, even when laying.

Conversely, it has been suggested that Segal once went with over fifty selections before he hit a winner, although this is hard to substantiate due to the lack of proofed record from the Racing Post. 

Like all tipsters, Pricewise will have both good runs and bad runs.

Trading Pricewise Selections

This is an option for those who can't quite get on early enough but the prices haven't yet contracted as much as they will. 

How To Trade A Horse On A Betting Exchange
ALSO READ

How To Trade A Horse On A Betting Exchange

It also appeals to some punters even if they DO get the recommended odds. 

The method is simple enough: bet the PW pick at the best odds available, then wait till it shortens a little further and lay off on Betfair or any of the exchanges. 

Except for rare occasions, PW picks shorten in the betting.

The initial drop from 8.30 am online/shop opening times is noticeable, but they will still contract further as the late-morning punters get on at whatever prices they can. 

Some PW selections will continue to shorten throughout the day till the off. The potential definitely exists to bet first, then lay off later at shorter odds for a small profit. 

The returns are smaller but frequent, and once you get the hang of it, you'll come on top virtually every time. 

Selections Shortening
The opportunity to back at 25/1 and lay at 16/1, thus creating a winning trade can be available for the early riser

The beauty of this method is the knowledge that virtually every horse will shorten in odds from the recommended column odds.

You can even use this method to get a 'free' bet on PW picks.

Let's say we back our 25/1 recommended odds, for £10. That's a potential profit of £250. 

Later on Betfair the odds are down to 16/1.

How to Effectively Use a Betting Exchange: The Ultimate Guide
ALSO READ

How to Effectively Use a Betting Exchange: The Ultimate Guide

You lay £160 to win £10 on the exchanges, thereby giving you a free bet to win £90 on a Pricewise horse. 

The shorter the odds the greater the potential 'free' profit. 

A slight adjustment to the lay will also cover any exchange commission if you want to be particular about that. 

Betting Exchanges UK - The best sites in the UK
ALSO READ

Betting Exchanges UK - The best sites in the UK

This can negate the effect of a long losing run on Pricewise picks on your betting bank.

There's little doubt that Tom Segal and Pricewise provide a wealth of information, and the sheer popularity and faithful following the column has ensured something rare in betting - an almost guarantee of shortening of odds and the prospect of playing for profit.

N.B Since writing this article the timing of bookmakers releasing odds has changed, odds are now available on horse racing even earlier. (4.00 PM the night before from some firms)

You need to be even more on the ball when betting or laying or trading Pricewise or any high profile tipster advice. 

No Comments

There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...

Please login or register to reply to this news article
KEEP READING
What Do Brits Do After A Big Win?

What Do Brits Do After A Big Win?

What do Brits do after a big win? We asked people around the UK what they would do if they won the lottery. Find out what they would spend their winnings on.
Continue Reading
Climate Change and Sport (AI depicts stadiums of the future)

Climate Change and Sport (AI depicts stadiums of the future)

We explored with AI how climate change could reshape major sports venues.
Continue Reading
The Ultimate Guide to the 101 Best Sports Documentaries on Netflix

The Ultimate Guide to the 101 Best Sports Documentaries on Netflix

Explore our list of top 101 sports documentaries on Netflix and get insights into the best stories in sports history.
Continue Reading