4:18 York Tips

Colts by Too Darn Hot tend to be right out of the top drawer and this unexposed one could be another. He was up against a future Group placed horse when 2nd on debut and has won his 2 starts since. He'll strip fitter after winning on the Aw last time out on seasonal debut and a return to turf is a positive since his easy win on decent ground at Goodwood has produced a stack of future winners. Stall 3 should be a positive and he fits the profile of many previous winners of this race.

Lightly raced and looks the type to improve this season in handicaps, especially with Moore booked. The easy novice win at Kempton looked decent, and the second has run well since in a handicap.

Best Rate, from the in-form Richard Hannon yard, is an intriguing contender. The stable has made a strong start to the turf season, with 10 winners in the last 14 days at a 16% strike rate. Still lightly raced, Best Rate has run five times, winning a Wolverhampton Novice over Christmas, earning a handicap mark of 83. Since then, he has shown promise at Kempton and on his turf debut at Newmarket, where he was positioned on the far side in a race that saw the winner come from last to first. Despite that, he shaped well over a mile. Now dropping back to seven furlongs, in what's likely to be a strongly run race, he remains unexposed on fast turf. Sean Levey is booked to ride, a significant choice given other options. If he gets a clear path, Best Rate could be a strong late challenger at a double-figure price.

A very consistent runner, especially on AW, but more recently on turf. Has run into a place or the top spot every race this year and is used to the winners enclosure. I suggest a place, but if Red Sand can be overcome, a win is a strong possibility.

Showed some decent progress this year with two places on the all-weather tracks and a win the last time out. Bit of an ask to keep going here, but a good each-way option.

Lightly raced 3yo filly. Two runs this year. Excuses last time out when not firing on her AW debut. Only beaten 2L on her return during March, in a very strong looking Listed contest against older runners. She wasn’t beaten far at this track last summer, on fast ground, in a Group 2 contest. She now drops into a class 3 handicap, her mark of 94 looks very handy and she’s now helped by a capable apprentice who is taking a useful 7lb off her back.

The model I run suggests the value play here is an each way bet on Tattie Bogle. Four places up for grabs on some platforms offer additional placings. The result of the model has largely been driven by Tattie Bogle having the highest RPR of the field and the second lowest official ranking. This leaves him carrying the second lowest weight for this 7f trip. He has shown some promise, finishing second in a class 4 handicap only four days ago, so clearly has race fitness. There are question marks around whether the turnaround is too quick. Drawn in stall 5, which is a bonus. On these shorter 5-7f trips, lower stall draws are statistically advantageous.

Won debut run at Hamilton last May and also gained valuable experience at this course when 3 of 8 last October. Had been off 7 months prior to LTO effort where rustiness was evident when only 9 of 12 at Newmarket earlier this month. Going down in class which should help.

Was finally rewarded by a big win after a series of promising runs when she landed the win at Pontefract last month. This is only her 2nd handicap run, and the mark has dropped by 3 lbs, but she still needs to improve as she is going up 2 classes.