4:40 Ascot Tips

Shout and Native Warrior are vying for market leadership in the Balmoral with CROWN OF OAKS looking to be forgotten about. The Wootton Bassett 3yo has barely put a hoof wrong on his 6 career starts; finishing 1.25l 3rd of 12 in a C2 maiden at HQ on his only start as a juvenile and returned with the same result + distance at Newbury in April. He looked to have taken a step backward at Redcar NTO when finishing 3l 3rd of 4 but was given a couple of months off and returned with aplomb at Ayr when winning on handicap debut. The gelding backed that up with a demolition job at Ascot NTO (6.5l) and put in a fair enough display at the Curragh last month (2.75l 3rd of 21) where he was carrying a 7lb penalty. The drop back to a mile is a question mark but WB’s 38% SR (A/E 1.6) with fancied runners at Ascot and the owner’s 50% SR (A/E 1.56) with fancied runners in handicaps boosts claims.

Native Warrior won his last two races quite convincingly. Both were 7f races here at Ascot. Given that Native Warrior's sire is Wootton Bassett, it is reasonable to assume that Native Warrior will be just as successful over 1m. In general, the chances of finishing among the winners look quite substantial

The Crisfords have probably had their best season yet in 2023, and it could be topped nicely by taking this hugely valuable handicap. He was very impressive here last time and looks to have more improvement in him. He hasn't been over-raced so far this season, and this will almost certainly have been a target for some time. As a bonus, he has a great draw on the stands rail, which has been the place to be at Ascot on the straight course all year.

Cerulean Bay has come to life since going up in trip to a mile with two 2nds, including here from 17 runners in the Shergar, and then two wins at Goodwood. He is attempting a hat-trick today. He is reunited with Danny Tudhope, who has three wins and a 3rd from his six rides. He is in the stall next door to his last race here and is only up by a pound from his last win.

There doesn't look to be a lot of pace on offer, with Hafleet Alain drawn high and Holloway Boy drawn low. Low numbers have tended to do well in this race, and although he's still rising up the handicap, I fancy Ebts Guard can go close at a track he clearly enjoys (2 wins, 2 placed from 5 starts over C&D). He beat Cerulean Bay when giving away 6 lbs at the Shergar Cup and meets that rival here on 5 lbs better terms. He grabbed the rail and made most that day from stall 3, and with the lack of forward-going types in the field, I think a repeat isn't off the cards from stall 1. Ground versatile and can win this even from a career-high mark of 102.

They've been racing this horse over too short a trip in recent races, but the last time he had this trip in a big field resulted in a nose defeat to Godwinson in a 22 runner handicap. He gets an 8lb swing in the weights with that one now and prior to that he was runner up in a Listed race which was also over a mile. Clearly these are his ideal conditions and this 5yo has a lot going for him considering he's as big as 25/1.

The value has gone as earlier this week Arisaig was trading at odds of 25/1. Has had 8 starts in 2025 and all have been good. Likes to come from off the pace and there's no one better than the head waiter, Jamie Spencer. With a trouble-free run, he can hit the frame.

Fifth Column is ideally suited by one mile and fast going. He found the extra furlong at Newmarket last time too far and faded late on. He had wins at both York and Newmarket over a mile on good to firm this season.

Tribal Chief was a little disappointing last time out. Previous to that, he won well at Goodwood and, if in similar form, can reward each-way support.

Has only won twice from 20 starts but has finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd on 6 occasions. Each way chance if producing best form.

Kept on very well behind Native Warrior here Lto, when coming 5/20 beaten 5 lengths in a decent class 2 handicap. Going to be suited by the step up to this mile, decent draw, good jockey retains ride and in hands of a top class trainer, making current 22/1 very good Ew value here.

This is highly competitive but it could be worth taking a chance that Godwinson can come back to his best. He was 3/1 favourite last time for a similar type race at the Curragh where he couldn't get a run and was reported to be coughing post race. He has had a good break since then and should be fully recovered to run a good race here for his shrewd trainer Willie Haggis.

No comment made

Kept on well to go fourth over this trip at York 8 days ago. Remains on the same mark and likely to be produced late again here for place potential, with 5 places mostly available.

High class performer who has run well in some hot handicaps and was 4th in the Royal Hunt Cup over course and distance in June. Well beaten the last twice so needs to bounce back but cheekpieces go on and he'll surely land one of these big pots soon.

Went into the notebook after a unlucky run here at Ascot in September over today's distance of a mile but found plenty of traffic and finished 7th. Flattered to deceive since when also finishing the race off well after finding problems. Obviously needs a clear run but trainer has good record in this race and is drawn nicely in stall 6.

Witch Hunter finished a very good third in this last season off a mark of 109. He runs from 101 this time, has a high draw, and should get the strong pace he needs to be seen to best effect. He looks to be in form following a good win at Newcastle last time. I can see him running into a place again.

Hafeet Alain looks a new player to me. Likes straight courses, and the form of its last race is tough to knock. It has been absent since, although it did miss an engagement last week. 7 lb claimer up makes it look competitive.