7:20 Tipperary Tips

It was good to see Jack Kennedy return to action on Tuesday after a lengthy spell out injured. If he fails to win on either of his two earlier rides today he looks to have a solid chance of getting a winner aboard this handicap debutant, who has posted some solid efforts in four maiden hurdle races.

FOLLY BEACH is still just a seven year old , so she should be capable odf making an impact switching back into the NH code in handicap hurdles division. Interestingly she has been sharpened up with a couple of runs on the level and with a first-class jockey booked today she could surprise.

The blinkers worked the trick for Kieran Purcell's YOU DONE WELL under Danny Gilligan LTO in Limerick, and it might pay to stay onside with the Kilkenny handler's 4 y/o who could be on the rise. Danny Gilligan retains the ride. Slight jump in class, hopefully the 5lb penalty won’t stop him improving. The extra furlong should help. Loads in with a chances here, so a tentative ew poke from me.

Needed the run after months off last time and didn't have the best run through. His best form has come when making the running and is worth an each-way bet here with forceful tactics employed.

The model I run suggests Way Down South can win this one. This result has been driven by Way Down South having the highest OR of this larger 16 horse race. Looks reasonably well treated in the weights and is certainly not penalized for having a higher RPR. 15s is a big price and is probably based on form. Has won in the last 5 outings but not much shown since. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Won easily on handicap debut and upped in weight for that performance. But if running like last time, could well be good enough against these. Slightly further today, but should not be a problem.

Cabaret Prince is a former winning pointer who has shown up well in three maiden hurdle races before fading late on and his opening mark looks fair for this handicap hurdle.

At current 33/1 odds, I think Eoin Griffin's 8-year-old gelding NAVIGATOR JACK is a tad high as he drops in trip, weight, and class. This son of FAME AND GLORY was running his race 25 days ago at Punchestown and was bang there about 2f out but faded and then slipped. Looking at this charge’s best efforts, 20f is clearly his preferred trip, and he now races off his last winning mark. It’s also interesting to note that the majority of this lad’s better form has come at sharper tracks, more precisely left-handed, sharp tracks such as Wexford, Bellewstown, Listowel, and here at Tipperary. The conditional jockey is replaced by pro Ricky Doyle, who has a 21.05% place strike rate here over the past five years, while the trainer boasts a very impressive 50% place strike rate at the course over the same period. A drop back to a favourable trip, back on his last winning mark, and returning to a sharp track - there are simply too many positives for me to ignore, especially at this price. This Charge could represent a touch of value and is certainly worth a second look.