5:35 Tipperary Tips

The Banger Doyle has finished 2nd in his last two chases for which he is much higher rated at 140 than his hurdles mark of 109. He has not been better than 3rd in any of his eleven runs over hurdles but this is a decent chance for his first hurdles win.

From one of the top Irish stables, I will be surprised if this horse does not make the frame. It was in fine form this time last year, and although the long absence is a concern, connections are more than capable of readying a horse to win after a long time off the track.

The jockey booked on this one has won 3 of his last 12 rides for the stable, and the horse has slipped to his lowest mark since finishing 3rd of 19 at Punchestown last year. Straight after that, he was sent off as short as 7/2 for this jockey when unseating him early. That was off 105, so he's 2lb lower now, and rather than getting 7/2, we are getting 40/1. So, I think it's fairly easy to make a case for the horse being the value here.

The model I run suggests an upset from Star Official. This result has been driven by Star Official having an RPR that is the second highest in this larger 16-horse race. A mid-ranking official ranking leaves this horse looking reasonably well treated off this mark. Shown glimpses of good form and coupled with the jockey claiming seven lbs off could go close. A total weight being carried near the bottom and looks to come on from the 4th place finish last time out. Trip before that was a win at this distance. Model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.