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- France are the 4/9 favourites to win Group I
- Norway are second favourites ahead of Senegal
- France open the tournament against Senegal in a repeat of the famous 2002 upset
France Out To Avoid Repeat Of Senegal Shock In Competitive Group I
There may not be a more emotionally charged opening fixture in the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage than France against Senegal.
Twenty-four years after Senegal stunned the defending champions 1-0 in one of the greatest World Cup upsets ever, the two nations meet again in Group I with bookmakers expecting another fiercely competitive section.
France lead the betting to top the standings, but Norway’s emerging golden generation and Senegal’s tournament pedigree mean qualification could become far tighter than the odds initially imply.
The group also sees Norway return to the World Cup spotlight carrying one of Europe’s most exciting attacking squads.
Group I Winner Odds
| Group I Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| France | 4/9 | 69.2% |
| Norway | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Senegal | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Iraq | 40/1 | 2.4% |
France’s position at the top of the market reflects their consistency at major tournaments over the past decade.
However, both Norway and Senegal possess enough quality to make Group I one of the most dangerous draws for a top seed.
France Looking To Dominate Group
Few World Cup matches remain as iconic as Senegal’s stunning victory over reigning champions France in 2002.
That result immediately became one of the defining upsets in tournament history and gives this opening fixture extra intrigue heading into 2026.
France arrive once again among the favourites for the entire competition, backed by one of the deepest squads in world football.
Norway’s odds of 5/2 underline growing confidence around their current generation of talent.
The Scandinavians have developed into one of Europe’s most exciting attacking sides and many believe they are capable of making a deep tournament run if momentum builds early.
Their opening fixture against Iraq presents a strong opportunity to begin with three points before a potentially decisive clash against Senegal.
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Senegal Continue To Thrive On Big Stage
Senegal’s reputation as one of Africa’s strongest tournament sides continues growing.
The Lions of Teranga remain physically imposing, technically dangerous and tactically organised, qualities that consistently translate well to World Cup football.
Iraq enter Group I as clear outsiders but will hope to produce the type of surprise results that often emerge during expanded World Cup formats.
| Group I To Finish Bottom | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 2/7 | 77.8% |
| Senegal | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Norway | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| France | 33/1 | 2.9% |
Group I Fixtures
France vs Senegal
16 June 2026 – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Iraq vs Norway
16 June 2026 – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
France vs Iraq
22 June 2026 – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Norway vs Senegal
22 June 2026 – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Norway vs France
26 June 2026 – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Senegal vs Iraq
26 June 2026 – BMO Field, Toronto
