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- USA are the 5/4 favourites to win Group D at the 2026 World Cup
- USA are the 5/4 favourites to win Group D at the 2026 World Cup
- Australia are favourites to finish bottom of the group
USA Slight Favourites In One Of The Most Competitive World Cup 2026 Groups
World Cup bookmakers are expecting a fiercely competitive battle in Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The section features co-hosts United States alongside Paraguay, Australia and Turkey, with all four nations believing qualification to the knockout stages is achievable.
BetVictor currently give the USA a narrow edge thanks to home advantage, though Turkey and Paraguay remain firmly in contention in what could become one of the tightest groups of the tournament.
The group schedule also includes several intriguing recent head-to-head meetings, with the United States facing all three opponents in friendly matches during the past few years.
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Group D Winner Odds
| Group D Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Turkey | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Paraguay | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Australia | 9/1 | 10.0% |
The odds suggest bookmakers expect a genuine three-way battle for top spot between the USA, Turkey and Paraguay.
USA Hoping Home Advantage Delivers Group Victory
As co-hosts, the United States enter the tournament carrying considerable expectation.
Playing key matches in California and Seattle should provide a major boost for the Americans, who have steadily improved under a younger and increasingly experienced squad.
The USA open against Paraguay in Inglewood before later facing Australia and Turkey in what could become decisive encounters.
What the expert says...
The final group game between Turkey and the USA could ultimately determine who finishes top.
Turkey Emerging As Dangerous Challengers
Turkey’s short odds at 2/1 underline growing confidence around their international project.
The Turkish side have developed an exciting squad packed with technical quality and attacking depth, with bookmakers clearly believing they can challenge the Americans directly for first place.
Their opening fixture against Australia presents a major opportunity to establish early momentum before facing Paraguay and the USA.
Paraguay Could Become Surprise Package
Paraguay may sit slightly behind the leading pair in the market at 10/3, but they remain more than capable of upsetting expectations.
Historically known for defensive organisation and tournament resilience, Paraguay often thrive in tightly balanced groups where fine margins become crucial.
Australia are currently the outsiders to win the group and favourites to finish bottom.
| Group D To Finish Bottom | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| Paraguay | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Turkey | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| USA | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Group D To Finish Bottom
United States vs Paraguay
12 June 2026 – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Australia vs Turkey
13 June 2026 – BC Place, Vancouver
United States vs Australia
19 June 2026 – Lumen Field, Seattle
Turkey vs Paraguay
19 June 2026 – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara
Turkey vs United States
25 June 2026 – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Paraguay vs Australia
25 June 2026 – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara
Where To Bet On World Cup Markets
Bookmakers are expected to offer extensive World Cup betting markets throughout the tournament including group winners, qualification specials and player props.
Many football betting sites will also provide enhanced odds, accumulators and free bets during the competition.
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