Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency may face a by-election before the next election
- Returning to Henley may appeal to Johnson
- Johnson remains 7/1 second favourite to be next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak
Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency may face a by-election before the next election
Betting is still open for a potential by-election in Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency as the debate over party-gate rages on into April.
There remains a possibility that Johnson is ousted from his current constituency as his investigation into whether or not he misled MPs over the Downing St parties in lockdown still continuing.
The privileges committee could well vote to suspend him from Commons which could then lead to the constituency having a by-election in which Johnson would be free to run in.
The latest odds from UK betting sites say that there's a 66% chance that a by-election takes place in Johnson's constituency before the next General Election.
| Will Uxbridge and South Ruislip have a by-election before next General Election? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| No | 1/4 | 80.0% |
Returning to Henley may appeal to Johnson
Despite announcing his intention to run for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip once again at the next election we may well see Johnson run for his old seat in Henley again.
Tory MP John Howell confirmed that they will not stand as a candidate for the party in the next general election and Johnson could go back to the Henley constituency for the first time since 2008.
Johnson left the role in 2008 when he became London Mayor in the same year and the Henley seat looks like it would be much stronger than the Uxbridge and South Ruislip one.
By Election Betting Odds
Johnson remains 7/1 second favourite to be next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak
Despite the potential for Boris Johnson to not even be an MP by the time of the next General Election he is still the second favourite in the next Prime Minister betting market.
Current Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is odds-on at 1/3 to take over from Rishi Sunak next but Boris is 7/1 behind him in the betting.
The current prediction from Electoral Calculus says that Labour's current majority would be 264 seats with a 95% chance of a Labour Majority.
