I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- A decision on Manchester City’s alleged financial breaches is expected during the November international break
- Betting sites make a fine the most likely outcome at 4/6, ahead of a points deduction at 2/1
- City are accused of up to 130 breaches dating back to 2009, with a verdict to follow a 10-week hearing in late 2024
Betting Odds Suggest Fine Most Likely Outcome
As football fans await the Premier League’s ruling on the long-running case involving Manchester City’s alleged financial breaches, betting sites have now priced up the possible outcomes and the betting markets suggest the club is more likely to face a fine than a points deduction.
Sources close to the process indicate that a decision from the Independent Commission panel could be announced during the upcoming international break in November, marking the end of a saga that began nearly two years ago.
These alleged breaches span areas including financial reporting, cooperation with investigations, and compliance with UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations.
Manchester City Charges Outcome Odds
| Manchester City Charges Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Fined | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Points Deduction | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Expelled from Premier League | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Trophies Rescinded | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Relegated This Season | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Club Folds | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Guardiola Imprisoned | 100/1 | 1.0% |
The market leaders, a fine (4/6) or a points deduction (2/1), reflect a growing consensus that the Independent Commission is unlikely to impose the most severe punishments, such as expulsion or enforced relegation.
While City deny any wrongdoing, the scale of the alleged breaches have kept pressure on both the Premier League and the Commission to deliver a strong and transparent verdict.
What Are the Charges?
• 54x Failure to provide accurate financial information 2009-10 to 2017-18.
• 14x Failure to provide accurate details for player and manager payments from 2009-10 to 2017-18.
• 5x Failure to comply with Uefa's rules including Financial Fair Play (FFP) 2013-14 to 2017-18.
• 7x Breaching Premier League's PSR rules 2015-16 to 2017-18.
• 35x Failure to co-operate with Premier League investigations December 2018 - Feb 2023.
The hearing, held in September 2024, lasted nearly 10 weeks and involved legal teams from both the club and the Premier League.
Could City Really Be Relegated or Expelled?
While technically possible under Premier League rules, both expulsion (16/1) and relegation this season (20/1) are considered highly unlikely by both legal experts and betting sites.
The league’s integrity committee has never handed out punishments of that scale for financial breaches.
Even the potential of stripping past trophies (16/1), a widely debated suggestion among rival fans, would face enormous legal challenges.
More extreme outcomes, like the club folding (33/1) or Pep Guardiola facing prison time (100/1), are included in some novelty markets but are priced at joke-level odds to reflect their absurdity.
