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- Reform are 3/10 favourites to win the 2026 UK Local Elections.
- Nigel Farage has pledged over £5m in campaign spending before May 7.
- Labour and Conservatives trail at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively.
Reform Lead 2026 Local Elections Betting Market
UK betting sites have installed Reform as overwhelming 3/10 favourites to emerge as the winning party in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections, scheduled for Thursday 7 May 2026.
With 4,348 council seats across 106 English local authorities up for grabs, including all 32 London borough councils, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 15 unitary authorities, two county councils and 25 district councils, the scale of the vote makes it one of the biggest electoral tests before the next General Election.
The latest market points strongly towards Reform making major gains with bookmakers pricing them at an implied probability of over 75%.
Labour and the Conservatives sit some distance behind in the early outright market, suggesting punters believe momentum currently lies firmly with Nigel Farage’s party.
UK Local Elections 2026 – Winning Party Odds
| UK Local Elections 2026 Winning Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 3/10 | 76.9% |
| Labour | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Conservative | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Liberal Democrats | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Green | 9/1 | 10.0% |
Reform’s 3/10 price reflects dominant market confidence with Labour priced at 5/1 and the Conservatives at 6/1 to top the results nationally.
While local elections are often fragmented and region-specific, betting markets typically price the party expected to secure the most overall gains or strongest national performance.
Farage’s £5m “Double or Quits” Strategy
Earlier this year, Nigel Farage announced his intention to go “double or quits,” pledging to spend more than £5 million in the four months leading up to polling day.
Farage stated he was prepared to spend “every single penny in the bank account” on a mass direct mail and social media campaign, describing the upcoming elections as the “single most important event” before the next General Election.
That declaration appears to have resonated strongly with bettors with Reform well clear of the rest of the pack in the latest market.
What the expert says...
Market Outlook
At this stage, Reform sit in a commanding position at 3/10. Labour and the Conservatives face an uphill battle according to current pricing, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are considered longer shots at 9/1.
As campaigning intensifies in the weeks leading up to 7 May, bettors should expect potential volatility particularly if national polling tightens or high-profile endorsements shift public perception.
For now, however, the betting market tells a clear story: Reform are the party to beat in the 2026 UK Local Elections.
Where To Bet on the 2026 Local Elections
Punters interested in political markets can find UK Local Elections odds across leading UK betting sites.
For a comparison of the best political betting sites and the latest free bets offers, visit our dedicated pages.
