I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Robert Jenrick has been sacked by Kemi Badenoch for allegedly plotting to defect to Reform UK.
- Odds on Jenrick becoming the next Reform leader have plunged from 20/1 to 4/1.
- Nigel Farage denies any deal has been made, but confirms talks have taken place about “what the future might look like.”
Robert Jenrick Odds Cut for Next Reform UK Leader
Political betting markets have been thrown into turmoil following the shock sacking of Robert Jenrick by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Once viewed as a stable figure within the Tory ranks, Jenrick’s rapid fall from grace and possible switch to Reform UK has triggered a major shift in the Next Reform Leader betting.
Bookmakers have slashed Jenrick's odds from 20/1 into just 4/1, as speculation intensifies that he could become the figurehead of Reform UK in the near future.
Bet365's latest market now gives a 20% implied probability that Jenrick takes over from Nigel Farage as Reform UK leader next.
Jenrick’s Fall Sparks Leadership Buzz
Jenrick had most recently served as shadow justice secretary, but was abruptly removed from the Conservative Party after accusations that he was preparing a defection designed to “inflict maximum damage.”
Kemi Badenoch accused him of “plotting in secret,” and reports suggest Jenrick left “material lying around” that contributed to his dismissal.
The fact that Jenrick came second in the 2024 Tory leadership contest and his growing media presence only adds weight to suggestions he may now find a home elsewhere.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Farage Denies “4.30pm Reveal” But Admits Conversations
Reform UK’s current leader Nigel Farage quickly denied any imminent announcement involving Jenrick, joking, “I was not going to be unveiling Robert Jenrick at 4.30pm this afternoon.”
That said, he did admit to having “absolutely” spoken to Jenrick about “what the future might look like.”
"I'll give him a ring this afternoon. I might even buy him a pint," Farage added in trademark fashion.
While there’s no formal agreement in place, the comments haven’t stopped punters from piling into the market, with Jenrick now second-favourite to take over the Reform UK leadership.
What the expert says...
Tice Still Leads the Market, But For How Long?
Richard Tice, Reform’s former leader and current party chairman, remains the 3/1 favourite to reclaim the top job.
However the sudden swing in market support for Jenrick could put pressure on Reform to refresh its leadership ahead of a likely general election in late 2026.
Zia Yusuf (9/2) and Danny Kruger (5/1) are also seen as outside contenders, while Rupert Lowe (11/1), the businessman and former MEP, remains a wildcard pick.
Where To Bet on UK Political Leadership Markets
While most UK betting sites aren’t currently offering odds on the next Reform UK leader, theere are a few that are offering the market.
Keep an eye on major platforms like Bet365, who are one of those and frequently have markets during periods of political volatility.
You can explore our guide to the best political betting sites and claim free bets from trusted UK betting sites
