I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Andy Burnham cut to 6/1 to become next Labour leader after Gorton candidacy row
- Green Party now favourites to win the Gorton and Denton by-election
- Boris Johnson 7/2 to join Reform UK before next General Election
Labour In Crisis? Burnham’s Odds Cut As Reform & Greens Gain Ground
Political betting markets are alive with movement this week as Andy Burnham’s failed attempt to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election has sent shockwaves through the Labour Party and caused major shifts in election betting odds.
The Greater Manchester Mayor was blocked from standing by Labour HQ, despite polling suggesting he was the favourite to win the seat.
That move fuelled talk of Burnham’s long-term ambitions for national leadership.
As a result, bookmakers have cut Burnham to 6/1 in the market for the next Labour leader, with Wes Streeting (3/1) and Angela Rayner (4/1) still leading the field.
Let's go through some of the biggest markets with the best political betting sites for the upcoming months, with big moves expected in the political landscape.
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Next Permanent Labour Party Leader Odds (via Ladbrokes)
| Next Permanent Labour Party Leader | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Angela Rayner | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Andy Burnham | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Ed Miliband | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Lucy Powell | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| Al Carns | 28/1 | 3.4% |
What the expert says...
Gorton and Denton By-Election: Greens Lead in Burnham’s Absence
With Burnham unable to stand, the by-election for Gorton and Denton, expected in February, has seen Green Party surge to 11/10 favourites.
Reform UK are just behind at 6/5, while Labour have drifted to 7/2.
This is a dramatic reversal for what was traditionally seen as a safe Labour seat.
Burnham's popularity in Greater Manchester was expected to carry the contest and his absence may hand an opportunity to outsider parties.
| Gorton and Denton By-Election Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 11/10 | 47.6% |
| Reform UK | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Labour | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| Conservatives | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| Liberal Democrats | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Will Boris Johnson Join Reform?
Following Suella Braverman’s high-profile defection to Reform UK this week, the betting markets have opened a special on who could be next and Boris Johnson is priced at 7/2 to join Nigel Farage's party before the next General Election.
Although still considered unlikely, with the market favouring ‘No’ at 1/5, it’s a sign that betting sites are watching the Johnson story closely.
| Will Boris Johnson Join Reform UK Before the Next Election? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1/5 | 83.3% |
| Yes | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Next General Election: Reform Still Favourite for Most Seats
Perhaps the most significant political betting shift in recent weeks has been the rise of Reform UK in the “Most Seats” market.
Ladbrokes now make Reform odds-on at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next General Election, ahead of Labour (5/2) and Conservatives (7/2).
This may surprise casual observers, but it reflects growing public support, increased media attention, and multiple defections helping boost the Reform narrative.
| Next General Election Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Green Party | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Advance UK | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Your Party | 200/1 | 0.5% |
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
#ad. 18+, gambleaware.org, T&Cs Apply
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