I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Paul Thomas Anderson is 1/25 favourite for Best Director.
- One Battle After Another leads Best Picture betting at 1/4.
- Bet365’s market suggests the major Oscars races are nearly settled.
Golden Globes Win Sends Anderson Odds Crashing
UK betting sites have reacted to Paul Thomas Anderson’s Golden Globes triumph, slashing his Best Director odds ahead of the 98th Academy Awards.
Anderson picked up the Best Director award at the 2026 Golden Globes for One Battle After Another and the ripple effect across betting sites has been dramatic.
The latest market from bet365 now prices him at an extraordinary 1/25 to win Best Director at the Oscars implying a 96.2% probability of success.
At that price, bookmakers are signalling that this category is effectively over.
Oscars 2026 Best Director Odds
| Director | Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another | 1/25 | 96.2% |
| Chloe Zhao | Hamnet | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Ryan Coogler | Sinners | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Josh Safdie | Marty Supreme | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Joachim Trier | Sentimental Value | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Chloe Zhao and Ryan Coogler sit joint second at 11/1, but even those prices underline the gulf between Anderson and the chasing pack.
Historically, nominees trading at 1/25 this close to the ceremony almost always convert barring extraordinary late shifts in industry sentiment.
Best Picture Market Also Firming Up
The dominance doesn’t stop there.
One Battle After Another also leads the Best Picture market at 1/4, implying an 80% chance of taking home the night’s biggest prize.
That makes it one of the strongest Best Picture favourites in recent Academy Awards betting history.
Ryan Coogler’s Sinners at 7/2 remains the only realistic challenger in the betting, while Hamnet sits further back at 12/1.
But at 1/4, the market is clearly pointing toward a dominant night for Anderson’s film.
| Oscars 2026 Best Picture | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | 1/4 | 80.0% |
| Sinners | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Hamnet | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Marty Supreme | 28/1 | 3.4% |
| Sentimental Value | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Bugonia | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Frankenstein | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| Train Dreams | 80/1 | 1.2% |
| The Secret Agent | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| F1 | 100/1 | 1.0% |
Could It Be a Sweep?
With Anderson odds-on at 1/25 for Best Director and his film priced at 1/4 for Best Picture, betting sites are effectively forecasting a major sweep at the Dolby Theatre on March 15, 2026.
The Oscars often reward films that combine critical acclaim with awards-season momentum and One Battle After Another appears to have both.
A combination of Golden Globes recognition and sustained industry support has solidified its frontrunner status.
For more awards and novelty markets, visit our guide to the best entertainment betting sites.
