I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Betting odds heavily favour Keir Starmer leaving office in 2026.
- Angela Rayner leads the market to replace him as Labour leader.
- Staff resignation specials reflect ongoing instability inside No 10.
Political Betting Markets React to Turbulent Week for Starmer
Political betting specials across UK betting sites have intensified following a turbulent week inside Downing Street, despite Sir Keir Starmer publicly vowing to continue as Prime Minister.
Speaking to No 10 staff, Starmer struck a defiant tone, insisting: “We go forward from here.”
He framed his leadership around “public duty” and highlighted Labour’s commitment to lifting half a million children out of poverty, presenting the mission as a moral imperative for his government.
However, behind the scenes, pressure has been mounting and betting markets have responded swiftly.
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When Will Keir Starmer Be Replaced as Labour Leader?
Against this backdrop, Ladbrokes have updated their political betting markets, making 2026 the standout favourite year for Starmer’s departure as Labour leader.
| What Year Will Keir Starmer Leave? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1/7 | 87.5% |
| 2027 | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| 2029 or later | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| 2028 | 11/1 | 8.3% |
The 1/7 price on 2026 implies an 87.5% probability, underlining just how strongly betting sites now view Starmer’s survival as Prime Minister.
Next Permanent Labour Party Leader Odds
If Starmer were to step aside, attention would quickly turn to his successor.
The betting market with Ladbrokes already has a clear favourite.
| Next Permanent Labour Party Leader | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Wes Streeting | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Ed Miliband | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Al Carns | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Andy Burnham | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Short-Term Drama: Will Starmer Resign This Week?
While a 2026 exit is heavily favoured, betting experts see a far lower chance of an immediate resignation.
| Will Keir Starmer Resign This Week? | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| No | 1/3 | 75.0% |
At 1/3, the market suggests Starmer is likely to ride out the immediate storm.
What the expert says...
Who Could Be the Next No 10 Departure?
With resignations stacking up, another popular political betting special focuses on who leaves next from Starmer’s inner circle.
| Next Member of Starmer’s Staff to Resign | Odds* | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Powell | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| David Lammy | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Rachel Reeves | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Yvette Cooper | 4/1 | 20.0% |
*As betting sites currently aren't taking bets on this event, odds have been compiled as theoretical probability from an entertainment perspective only and come from an industry expert
Final Thoughts
Despite Sir Keir Starmer’s confident public messaging, betting markets tell a different story.
With resignations mounting and odds heavily weighted towards a 2026 departure, political betting specials suggest uncertainty at the heart of government is far from over.
Whether Starmer stabilises his leadership or becomes another short-lived Prime Minister, one thing is clear: the betting markets are braced for change.
