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- Green Party 8/15 favourites in Gorton and Denton by-election.
- Labour drift to 4/1 despite 13,000 majority in 2024.
- Sir Keir Starmer warns of anti-Reform vote split.
Greens Lead as Gorton and Denton Head to Polls
UK betting sites have installed the Green Party as 8/15 favourites ahead of Thursday’s Gorton and Denton by-election.
The contest has quickly become one of the most closely watched votes of the year, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer visiting the constituency to campaign in the final days.
Starmer described the vote as a “battle of values”, warning that backing the Greens could split the anti-Reform vote.
He also criticised what he described as the Green Party’s “disgusting” drugs policy and labelled Reform UK as “toxic”.
Bet365's latest market gives an implied probability of 65.2% that the Green Party top the voting.
Gorton and Denton By-Election Odds
| Gorton and Denton By-Election | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 8/15 | 65.2% |
| Reform UK | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Labour | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Liberal Democrats | 250/1 | 0.4% |
| Advance UK | 350/1 | 0.3% |
| Conservatives | 350/1 | 0.3% |
| Social Democrats | 1000/1 | 0.1% |
The Greens’ 8/15 price implies a 65% probability of victory, placing them firmly ahead of Reform at 5/2 and Labour at 4/1.
Labour’s Majority Under Threat?
At the 2024 General Election, Labour secured the seat with a majority of 13,000.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne due to ill health. Gwynne had previously served as Health Minister before being suspended over offensive WhatsApp messages.
Despite the sizeable majority last time out, bookmakers have eased Labour to 4/1 which is a notable shift for what was once considered a safe seat.
A defeat would represent a significant setback for Starmer’s party.
Reform Positioned as Main Challenger to Greens
Reform UK sit at 5/2 in the latest betting.
The Prime Minister’s warning about a split anti-Reform vote highlights the perceived threat Reform poses in the constituency.
If the Greens draw substantial support from progressive voters, Reform could benefit from a divided field which is a dynamic clearly reflected in the market.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on By-Election Markets
Political markets like this are available across major UK betting sites including Bet365.
For broader political and novelty betting coverage, explore the best political betting sites.
All markets will likely remain live until polls close.
