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- Green Party odds-on at 8/11 to win the Gorton and Denton by-election
- Labour drift to 11/2 after internal issues and Gwynne’s resignation
- Reform UK second favourites with rising support across Greater Manchester
Greens 8/11 Favourites to Win Shock Seat
A political upset could be on the cards in Greater Manchester, as betting sites now price the Green Party as 8/11 favourites to win the Gorton and Denton by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne.
The by-election, set for Thursday 26 February, follows Gwynne stepping down on medical grounds having already been suspended from the Labour Party in 2025 over reported offensive WhatsApp messages.
Gwynne had secured a 13,000+ majority for Labour in July 2024, but the fallout has opened the door for an unexpected challenger to take the seat and bookmakers now make Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer the frontrunner.
Bet365's latest market gives an implied probability of 57.9% that Green Party win here.
Gorton and Denton By-Election Latest Betting Odds
| Gorton and Denton By-Election Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| Reform UK | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Labour | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Conservatives | 600/1 | 0.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 600/1 | 0.2% |
| Social Democrats | 600/1 | 0.2% |
The collapse in Labour’s odds from odds-on in early 2025 to now 11/2 third favourites reflects growing uncertainty over the party's local appeal following Gwynne's exit and national trust issues.
Meanwhile, Reform UK continue their push across northern England with Matt Goodwin on the ticket, trading at 6/4 as a serious threat.
But it’s the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer who has taken control of the betting, with a growing activist base and local environmental momentum behind her.
Confirmed Candidates
The ballot is shaping up with a broad spectrum of parties:
- Charlotte Cadden – Conservative Party
- Matt Goodwin – Reform UK
- Sebastian Moore – Social Democratic Party
- Joseph O'Meachair – Rejoin EU Party
- Jackie Pearcey – Liberal Democrats
- Hannah Spencer – Green Party
- Angeliki Stogia – Labour Party
Despite the diversity of options, betting sites see this as a three-horse race with Greens, Reform and Labour leading the way.
Expert Insight
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on UK By-Elections
Markets for parliamentary by-elections like Gorton and Denton are available at select UK bookmakers offering political specials.
For access to the most competitive odds, trusted brands, and free bets, check out our expert-reviewed list of betting sites.
For more unusual and political novelty betting opportunities, visit our curated guide to the best political betting sites.
