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- Israel lead the betting at 7/2 to win the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest despite widespread calls for their exclusion.
- Five countries including Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands have withdrawn in protest at Israel’s participation amid the ongoing Gaza conflict.
- Eurovision 2026 will be held in Vienna from May 12–16, with 35 nations competing
Israel 7/2 Favourites as Vienna Hosts Amid Boycotts
The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is already shaping up to be one of the most politically charged editions in the event’s long history.
While anticipation builds for the music and performances that define Europe’s biggest televised event, it’s the headlines around boycotts and controversy that have dominated the lead-up.
Despite the turmoil, betting markets are active, with Israel currently leading the outright winner odds at 7/2, ahead of Eurovision stalwarts Sweden (11/2) and Ukraine (7/1).
Set to take place from May 12–16, 2026, in Vienna, Austria, this will be the 70th edition of the contest but it will do so under the cloud of the largest coordinated boycott since 1970.
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Eurovision 2026 Winner Odds
| Eurovision 2026 Winner | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Israel’s Favourites Tag Overshadowed by Geopolitical Tensions
Israel’s 7/2 price tag is reflective of the country’s consistent Eurovision performances in recent years, including Netta’s 2018 win, and early buzz around their expected national final entry.
However, this year’s lead-up has been defined by backlash, not ballots.
Following the European Broadcasting Union’s (EBU) confirmation that Israel would be allowed to participate, five countries chose to withdraw from the 2026 contest, citing concerns over the country’s ongoing role in the Gaza conflict.
The withdrawing nations are:
🇮🇸 Iceland
🇮🇪 Ireland
🇳🇱 Netherlands
🇸🇮 Slovenia
🇪🇸 Spain
This marks the largest coordinated Eurovision boycott in over 50 years, and reduces the number of participating countries to 35 which is the lowest since 2003, before semi-finals were introduced.
Sweden, Ukraine and Italy: Reliable Eurovision Betting Picks
If controversy puts punters off backing Israel, there are several strong Eurovision betting alternatives in the 2026 market:
🇸🇪 Sweden (11/2): Eurovision royalty. With seven past victories and a reputation for modern staging and crowd-pleasing pop, they’re always near the top.
🇺🇦 Ukraine (7/1): Consistently strong and buoyed by diaspora voting across Europe. Their entries tend to blend cultural resonance with commercial appeal.
🇮🇹 Italy (12/1): Known for their musical credibility and big performances. Italy has consistently finished in the top 10 since returning to the contest in 2011.
All three nations boast large fanbases and proven voting networks, making them solid betting sites favourites for top placings if not outright victory.
What the expert says...
Vienna Hosts as Austria Returns to Glory
This year’s contest is being staged at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, thanks to Austrian artist JJ’s win in 2025 with the track “Wasted Love.”
It marks Austria’s second time hosting since 2015 and is expected to bring a return to classic Eurovision pageantry.
While the field is reduced, organisers have promised a show of unity and celebration and Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania return to the fold after missing recent contests, offering fans a few surprise additions to the line-up.
The semi-finals will take place on 12 and 14 May, with the Grand Final scheduled for Saturday, 16 May 2026.
Where to Bet on Eurovision 2026 Odds
Eurovision remains one of the most wagered-on TV events of the year, with markets often moving significantly between now and rehearsals in May.
For those looking to bet on Eurovision 2026, UK Betting Sites are offering outright winner odds and are expected to launch Top 5, Top 10, and semi-final qualification markets closer to the date.
You can compare betting offers and Eurovision specials using OLBG’s top-rated lists:
