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- 1/8 that no EU referendum happens before 2035.
- 100/1 for a referendum as early as 2026.
- Year-by-year betting market now live via Ladbrokes.
Bookmakers Price Up Next EU Referendum
UK betting sites are now offering odds on when, or if, the UK will hold another official referendum on EU membership.
Ladbrokes have released a year-by-year market stretching from 2026 through to 2034, alongside a strong favourite outcome that no vote will take place before 2035.
With Brexit continuing to shape political debate, novelty markets like this offer insight into bookmaker expectations for the long-term political landscape.
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When Will UK Hold An Official Referendum On EU Membership?
| When Will UK Hold An Official Referendum On EU Membership? | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| 2027 | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| 2028 | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| 2029 | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 2030 | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2031 | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2032 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2033 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2034 | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| No referendum before 2035 | 1/8 | 88.9% |
The standout price is 1/8 that no referendum takes place before 2035 implying an 88.9% probability.
Early Vote Considered Highly Unlikely
At 100/1, bookmakers are giving just a 1% implied chance that a referendum is held this year.
Even by 2029, the odds sit at 25/1, suggesting that markets see little short-term political appetite for reopening the question.
The probability gradually shortens into the early 2030s, with 2034 priced at 12/1 which is still a relatively remote possibility.
What the expert says...
Why 2035 Is the Key Marker
The heavy 1/8 price on “No referendum before 2035” signals clear bookmaker expectation that any return to the ballot box on EU membership would be a long-term prospect.
Political cycles, generational shifts and economic factors would all likely influence the debate but for now, markets suggest stability rather than reversal.
Markets like this are available across major UK betting sites including Ladbrokes.
For broader novelty and political betting markets, explore the best political betting sites.
