I break betting odds news as it happens, so you’re never left behind when the market moves or a top offer lands.
- Bookmakers offer 1/8 that no new UK referendum on EU membership happens before 2035.
- Earliest possible date according to odds is 2034 (12/1), with all other years priced longer.
- Ladbrokes are one of the top UK betting sites for political betting markets.
When Will The UK Hold Another EU Referendum? Bookies Say Not Any Time Soon
It’s been nearly a decade since the seismic 2016 Brexit vote that saw the United Kingdom decide to leave the European Union and now political betting sites are pricing up the odds on when a second EU referendum could be held.
While speculation about “Brejoin” has occasionally flared up in political and media circles, bookmakers are firmly backing a long wait.
According to Ladbrokes, it’s 1/8 that no official UK referendum on EU membership takes place before 2035, implying a massive 88.9% chance that the UK won’t revisit its EU status for at least another ten years.
The latest betting market gives a year-by-year look at when it could happen, with later rather than sooner the only realistic option according to the odds.
When Will the UK Hold an Official EU Referendum?
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100/1 | 1.0% |
| 2026 | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| 2027 | 50/1 | 2.0% |
| 2028 | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| 2029 | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| 2030 | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2031 | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2032 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2033 | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| 2034 | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| No referendum before 2035 | 1/8 | 88.9% |
A Brexit Sequel? Not Likely Before 2035
Despite growing conversations from fringe political groups and online campaigns calling for a second referendum, there is no current indication from the UK government or major opposition parties that a future EU membership vote is on the cards.
The odds reflect that political reality with Ladbrokes pricing every year up to 2034 as highly unlikely, and 2025 at a distant 100/1.
“No referendum before 2035” market is now seen as the safe bet, highlighting a clear consensus among bookmakers that the UK’s relationship with the EU won’t be re-examined by public vote any time soon.
Top 10 Political Betting Websites in the UK
Expert Insight
What the expert says...
Jake Ashton - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Where to Bet on Political Markets
Political punters looking to place a bet on a possible EU referendum or any wider election-related markets can do so via the best political betting sites.
Ladbrokes are currently leading the way with this EU referendum market and a solid welcome offer for new players.
18+. New UK & ROI customers only . Certain deposit methods & bet types excl . Min first £10 win or E/W bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 & get 4 x £10 free bets . Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&C apply.
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