The Value of Historical Results

Historical Results In Different Sports Have A Different Value.

In tennis or snooker for example, where there is just one player against another then yes history is very important (but even then there are other factors to consider).

But in team sports, there are so many changeable factors that I believe it’s a big mistake focusing too much attention on historical results. 

Assessing the current form is way more important, please read how to assess football form which gives lots of pointers. 

If we are talking about a big rivalry, like Manchester City Vs Manchester United where history is a big factor, especially for the fans, then yes historical results are quite important.

For example, a winless run might indicate that the winless team will be doing everything they can to win.

When we study a game for our betting, historical results are just information which in my opinion should not be given too much value.

Cristiano Ronaldo Is In The Team Today!

I read and hear about historical results all the time and every time I am wondering why should I care? Why does it matter if Asteras Tripolis have never beaten Tottenham Hotspur away from home? 

OK, I understand there is some value purely on the informative aspect of the fact but from a punter’s perspective, why should I care? 

Let us say hypothetically Asteras Tripolis in today's match will have Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in their starting XI while Tottenham Hotspurs are in the bottom of the table and have Joe Clueless for goalkeeper (Joe who?... Exactly!)

If I want to place a bet on Asteras to win today why would I care if Asteras has never beaten Tottenham home or away?

It is an extreme example but one which I think perfectly illustrates the point I am trying to make. 

Same thing can be said if we have to examine for example Liverpool Vs Chelsea. 

Why it has to matter if Chelsea beat Liverpool 1-4 away from home in 1907? (OK another extreme), as a punter why does it matter if Liverpool hasn't won against Chelsea in their last 5 meetings?

If you tell me that Liverpool and Chelsea have exactly the same personnel that they have had in those 5 meetings, then yes it is an extremely important fact, but that is never the case, players come and go all the time, managers the same. 

Surely we have to be looking on the current situation and not what happened 3 years ago. 

The most likely reasons why Liverpool have not won in their last 5 meetings, and have lost the last 3, is probably because Chelsea were the better team, with better players, or had a better game on the day. The only time I would be considering a stat like that is because of prestige reasons.

 A team like Liverpool cant take that fact lightly, they will want to get a win over a rival like Chelsea sooner rather than later, but from a betting perspective, the value of that stat is minimal.

The 3 Years Study?

You could be studying who was playing in those past games and what formations the teams had, and how their form was going into those games and if the team or manager was under pressure and so on and so on. 

All the factors you should be spending time and effort analysing for today's game do exactly the same for the games that took place in those 3 previous years. 

It would take you about 3 days to study today's game that way. Good luck!

Spending time and effort studying last year's games between the teams are far more important, simply because the teams normally will have the same manager and the majority of the players still in the team.

Does It Matter To A Punter?

If for example we come across a stat that says Team A has never won in a certain country. I believe that this information should be evaluated according to todays conditions and factors. It should not be taken at face value and say that Team A 's chances are slim because they have never won in that Country. 

It doesn't matter to me if they have never won before if they have an excellent chance to win today.

The fact of the matter is that if Team A does manage to win that game for the first time in that country the next day's newspapers and today's media will be full of it simply because they have to report the news. 

They will be talking about that historical event but not many punters will. 

What does matter to a punter is that they have won the bet?

 In this case, if it doesn't matter after the game why it should matter before?

Single Player Sports

In tennis or snooker, for example, head to head results are important, but even then, we shouldn't be looking too far back, simply because players develop and change. 

Some become better and others worsen, for example, we are studying a tennis match, we notice the two players have played 30 times against each other and there has always been the same player winning. 

The odds for the upcoming match between them will probably be something around 1/100 or 1.01 to the favourite.

But let us say they haven't played each other for over 4 years! Now that winning player is 35 years old and dropping in the rankings, while the other player is now 27 and climbing up the ranks the value of the information that one player has never defeated the other drops dramatically.

I don't think a match-up today would be valued around the 1/100 or 1.01 mark. 

Another factor we should be assessing instead of taking the stats at face value could there be possible physiological complex a player might have against another or the mental strength of each player.

So What Is Their Value?

Historical results have a different value in any given event. 

You need to evaluate the value of historical results.

The value is what is important to a punter and not just the stats. 

Just accepting those stats and putting them in your mind without assessing their value could have a negative effect on your judgment.