The 'Nothing to play for' theory

We are approaching the ‘business end' of the season. Points are crucial; at least they are to some teams, others don't seem to care so much! Read on…

Nothing To Play For

It's that time of the season in the big European leagues when some teams are destined for mid-table nothingness. Many teams are safe from relegation but also have no chance of a European qualification spot. The same goes for sides in the lower leagues that have little to no prospects of promotion.
These circumstances are regularly discussed in the media and lead many people to believe that fixtures between teams that need the points against teams that have nothing to play for could lead to some, otherwise, unexpected results.
I've decided to investigate whether playing with the pressure off or on means you are more likely to get a result or not. I had no idea what the stats would throw up before looking in to past tables so this should be without any bias and hopes to either prove or disprove the theory.

Premier League 2013-14 Case Study

Looking at the 2013/14 Premier League table I have decided that after 28 games you could begin to tell who was going to finish mid-table, i.e. not get relegated but also not qualify for a European spot, of course that is an assumption and generalisation also made in hindsight. 6 teams have been selected for the study. They were placed from 8th to 13th on the 8th March 2014;

• 8th Newcastle United; 43 points
• 9th Southampton; 42 points
• 10th West Ham; 31 points
• 11th Aston Villa; 31 points
• 12th Stoke City; 31 points
• 13th Hull; 30 points

For West Ham, Hull, Villa and Stoke to be relegated they were going to have to record less than 10 points in their next 10 games and that seemed unlikely. Especially considering in some seasons teams are relegated on 32 points or less and they were all just 1 point off that with 10 games to go. As for Newcastle and Southampton they were 5 and 6 points behind Everton respectively so a European place would have been an uphill task.
The idea is that those sides above will gain less from their remaining fixtures than many teams above and below them as they supposedly have ‘nothing to play for'.
Over the next 10 games Newcastle gained just 6 points to finish 10th on 49 points. Southampton gained 14 points (from games) to finish 8th on 56 points. Stoke gained a whopping 19 points (from 9 games) to finish 9th on 50 points, West Ham gained just 9 points to finish 13th on 40 points and Aston Villa got 7 points to finish 15th on 38 points. Hull gained just 7 points to finish 16th on 37 points. So, overall, 4 of the 6 chosen sides gained less than a point per game. That suggests to me that this theory could have legs.
Over that same 10 game period the rest of the league gained the following points;
Top 7

• Chelsea 66 points to 82 points; 16 points gained (from 9 games)
• Liverpool 59 points to 84 points; 25 points gained
• Arsenal 59 points to 79 points; 20 points gained
• Man City 57 points to 86 points; 29 points gained (from 12 games)
• Tottenham 53 points to 69 points; 16 points gained (from 9 games)
• Man United 48 points to 64 points; 16 points gained
• Everton 48 points to 72 points; 24 points gained (from 11 games)

Bottom 7

• Swansea 29 points to 42 points; 13 points gained
• Norwich 29 points to 33 points; 4 points gained (from 9 games)
• Crystal Palace 27 points to 45 points; 17 points gained
• West Brom 25 points to 36 points; 11 points gained
• Cardiff 25 points to 30 points; 5 points gained (from 9 games)
• Sunderland 24 points to 38 points; 14 points gained (from 12 games
  
• Fulham 21 points to 32 points; 11 points gained (from 9 games)

The 6 mid-table sides that I chose gained a combined 62 points from 58 games; on average that's 1.07 points per game (PPG).
The top 7 sides gained a combined 146 points from 71 games; on average 2.06 PPG. It also comes as no surprise that the Top 7 may have changed order but no other sides managed to break in to that runaway group.
Obviously teams from the top 7 were always likely to gain more points than the mid-table sides as they are technically better and more talented but at the same time that is a big jump up in the PPG comparison.
At the same time teams from the bottom 7 gained a combined 76 points from 69 games. On average that is 1.10 PPG. That is a higher PPG than the 6 mid-table teams achieved and shows that this theory really does exist to some extent.
The most promising thing about this is that the mid-table sides will still be priced in their fixtures according to their position by the bookmakers and that by opposing them punters could make some good money. People could also back the bottom 7 sides to pick up results when they are priced very nicely.

The Current Season

So my hypothesis is that backing the top and bottom 7 sides and opposing mid-table sides in the final 10 games of the season would be a profitable strategy. Let's translate that theory to the current Premier League table.
At the time of writing the Premier League is at the same stage as chosen point in the case study, 28 games played. My 6 mid-table choices are from the exact same places; 8th to 13th;

• 8th Stoke City; 42 points
• 9th Swansea; 40 points
• 10th West Ham; 39 points
• 11th Newcastle; 35 points
• 12th Crystal Palace; 30 points
• 13th West Brom; 30 points

Similar to the 2013/14 season these 6 teams are all 7 or more points off 7th place and also 2 points above 14th position so relegation seems unlikely given that some of them are already safe and others have 10 games to gain around 6 to 10 points which would be very likely to ensure safety.
Last season's Premier League would suggest that the above 6 sides are likely to underachieve somewhat, as a collective. It also suggests that the top 7 will stamp their dominance in the fight for top 4, the title and seeded European places whilst the bottom 7 will overachieve in order to try and escape the trapdoor to the Championship.
Obviously one season and division is not enough to prove this theory, so below I have gone through a few more past seasons of all of the top 4 English divisions, the Serie A, La Liga, the Bundesliga and the French Ligue 1.

Historical Comparisons

For all of these past seasons I have chosen to look at the top 7, mid-table 6 and bottom 7. Of course those sides may move up or down and actually end up in a different ‘section' of the table but in many cases the sides in those sections, the top 7 especially, remain the same over the last 10 games and instead sides just shuffle amongst each other.
Premier League 2012-13

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 2.01
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 0.98
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.04

Swansea (mid-table) managed just 6 points in the selected period from the 4th of March until the end of the season. Just one point more than Reading and QPR (bottom 7) both managed and they finished 19th and 20th. The highest points tally of the mid-table sides was West Ham who managed 13 points, compare that to Arsenal who managed 26 in the Top 7 and Aston Villa who managed 17 in the bottom 6. It seems this season shows once again the ability of mid-table sides to let results slip at the end of the season.
Premier League 2011-12;

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.78
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.23
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.09

There were some highs and lows in the sections over the final 10 games, Everton got 19 points from mid-table to save the blushes of Sunderland and Stoke who got 8 and 9 respectively. As impressive as Everton's late-season points haul was it got no way near Wigan's, the lower side got a whopping 22 points from their last 10 games in their famous great escape under Roberto Martinez. Overall the mid-table sides actually outperformed the bottom 7 over the last 10 games in this season but as a whole they still scored lower than they had throughout the first part of the season; 1.23 compared to their combined PPG of 1.30 for the first 28 games. That suggests to me that opposing them this season would still have been fruitful just not as much as other seasons.
One other noticeable thing is that there is usually a good gap between 7th and 8th with 10 games remaining, in 2011/12 there was 5 points between Liverpool in 7th and Sunderland in 8th. A similar gap was also true in 2012/13, 2013/14 and is true of the current Premier League season where there are 7 points between Southampton (7th) and Stoke (8th). That makes the categorisation of sections of the table really quite easy for this division. In some seasons there is not a great gap between 13th and 14th to quantify the bottom 7 but the stats seem to work, nevertheless.
So we now have 4 years of Premier League football as a sample size. I think that is more than adequate to prove my hypothesis holds true in the Premier League, at least in the modern game anyway. Every season saw mid-table sides register the least points in the last 10 games from March to May. Put simply, if you were to draw a line graph of the mid-table sides' PPG over the course of the season, there would be a big drop off towards the end.

Spanish La Liga

There are 12 games to go in this seasons La Liga but there already seems to be a solid Top 7 teams. The mid-table is however less defined with just 9 points separating 8th from 18th. For that reason it might be worth waiting another 2 game weeks before selecting the mid-table teams to oppose, but first let's see if the same pattern exists in past Spanish seasons as has been present in the Premier League.
La Liga 2013-14;

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.79
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.1
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.2

So last season's La Liga saw a pretty astronomic increase in the bottom 7 sides' PPG; every team except Real Betis, who finished bottom, managed an average of 1 PPG or more. Whereas the mid-table sides as per usual took their eye off the ball and scored a lower PPG of 1.12. Espanyol were the main culprits with just 6 points on the board from their last 10 games.
Based on those statistics I would suggest perhaps opposing Espanyol, Celta Vigo and Vallecano who currently occupy 3 of the mid-table positions and could be in for a weak end to the season. The picture could be a little clearer in the next two weeks once 28 games have been played.

French Ligue 1

We are currently bang-on the 10 games to go mark in Ligue 1 though Monaco and Montpellier have a game in hand over the rest of the division. As usual there is a sizeable gap between 7th and 8th of 4 points so the teams perhaps worth opposing or avoiding in the final 10 games are Lille, Rennes, Bastia, Nantes, Reims and Guingamp.
Ligue 1 2013-14;

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.74
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.05
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.19

A quick look over last season's trends in Ligue 1 shows the hypothesis to be true in France as well. Just 2 sides in mid-table averaged over 1 PPG in the last 10 games of 2013/14 they were Bordeaux and Lorient. Even with their decent effort the section as a whole did pretty poorly. A horrid run of results for Nice almost saw them relegated thanks to a super-human effort from Sochaux. The strugglers somehow put up 18 points from their final 10 games to leave them just 2 points off Nice but it wasn't quite enough.

Italian Serie A

Similar to Spain, Italy still have 12 games to go. At present there is more of a Top 6 than Top 7 and a bottom 5 rather than bottom 7 with the mid-table pretty hard to put boundaries over. That could change in the next 2 gameweeks.
Serie A 2013-14;

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.78
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.53
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 0.96

Looking at last season it seems like the theory does not translate so well to Italian football. This was not helped by Livorno collecting just 1 point and Bologna only 6 points in their final 10 games but perhaps shows the bottom of the Serie A is extremely weak in comparison to the rest of the division that year. One other possible explanation is that the upper-mid table sides are not that far off the lower Top 7 sides in terms of quality and therefore find it relatively easy to make up ground on them and land a European slot. That was made clear by AC Milan and Torino both hauling in over 20 points in their last 10 games in 2013-14 to take their places in 7th and 8th. This is also supported by the stats from the year prior.
Serie A 2012-13;

• Top 7 PPG in last 10 games; 1.89
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.37
• Bottom 7 PPG in last 10 games; 0.81

The sides at the foot of the Serie A can't seem to find that something extra to get results in the last 10 games. Not even in the frantic desperation to stay up. Pescara and Siena in 2012-13 managed just 1 and 6 points respectively in the last period. This seems to be completely different to what the stragglers from other European divisions manage to achieve when they are under the kosh.

Bundesliga

The Bundesliga is just an 18-team division so there are only 34 games each per season which means we are just about to reach the last 10 games of the season despite the long lay-off for the winter break.
Right now there are only 2 well defined sections. The 5 point gap between Augsburg in 6th and Hoffenheim in 7th shows us there's quite a well formed Top 6 and then there's the rest. The whole bottom half of the table doesn't have any real sizeable point gaps and it would probably be unwise to oppose the hugely under-achieving Borussia Dortmund. Let's look at last season to see if the theory stacks up;
Bundesliga 2013-14;

• Top 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.95
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.35
• Bottom 6 PPG in last 10 games; 0.95

Similar to Italy then. As a whole the bottom 6 struggle to up their PPG. Though Freiburg did manage to really up their PPG with 17 points in their last 10 games to lift themselves to safety. Stuttgart managed to put up 12 points too but, like the relegated Italian sides, SC Hamburg, Braunschweig and Nuremberg had an awful end of season which saw them all relegated with a whimper.
Backing the bottom sides and opposing the mid-table teams would not have been a successful strategy over the last 10 games of the season in that year's Bundesliga - unless managing to spot Freiburg and Stuttgart's upturn and Hertha Berlin's dreadful 5 point return from mid-table before all those patterns came to fruition.
However after checking previous seasons, like I did with the Italian league to make sure it wasn't just an anomaly, the results show that the Bundesliga is in fact also capable of producing battlers in the bottom 6. Perhaps the run in of fixtures for the bottom sides in the 2013/14 season was particularly hard and ensured they struggled more than usual.
Either way, only Greuther Furth got left behind in the bottom 6 of the 2012/13 season of the Bundesliga. Mainz and especially Fortuna Dusseldorf from mid-table had dreadful ends to their season; Fortuna's 2 point tally over the last 10 games saw them plummet from 7 points clear of 18th to finish 19th and 4 points off safety.
Bundesliga 2012-13;

• Top 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.92
• Mid-table 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.03
• Bottom 6 PPG in last 10 games; 1.2

Conclusion

Overall bottom 6 sides over-achieve in relation to their points tally with 10 games to go whilst mid-table sides under-achieve. This can be attributed to all manner of reasons but the most likely one does seem to be the ‘nothing to play for' aspect of being in a mid-table position.
After looking at past top-flight English seasons and last season's European tables we can see that the theory pretty much holds up throughout. Anomalies are to be expected as nothing is constant in football.
Evidently picking out those few sides every season that get a lot more results than expected in their final few games would lead to really good profit margins but it seems just backing the bottoms sides as a whole in games against mid-table sides could be a profitable strategy too and involve much less luck.
As a general rule of thumb my findings would suggest the following could be profitable avenues;

1. Back the bottom 6/7 sides of Ligue 1, La Liga and the Premier League in the last 10 games of the season, choosing the games carefully and especially backing these teams when they are playing one of the 6 mid-table sides.
2. Oppose the six teams from mid-table. Though if you have doubts over how a side is really underachieving, say Everton in this season's Premier League then avoiding them could be better than opposing them.
3. Back the Top 6/7 sides in all European divisions when they are playing mid-table teams. You could also back the Top 6/7 sides in Italy and Germany when they are playing teams from the bottom 6/7; there seems to be less risk of an upset occurring in the this period of this season in the Bundesliga and Serie A.
4. One other possible strategy would be to either back the draw or under 2.5 goals in games between mid-table sides. They might not have the drive to score as much as usual and that could bring in to play the 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline more when lacking that urgency.

Testing The Theory

This blog will be updated each week with selections from the Premier League, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and La Liga to try and take advantage of the generous odds when opposing mid-table teams.

Week One

Premier League; Arsenal to beat West Ham 4/9 WON +0.44 Chelsea to beat Southampton 8/13 LOST -1.0 Everton to beat Newcastle 17/20 WON +0.85 and Liverpool to beat Swansea 21/20 WON +1.05.
La Liga; Atletico Madrid to beat Espanyol 6/5 LOST -1.0 Granada to beat Rayo Vallecano 16/5 LOST -1.0 Bundesliga; Augsburg to beat Mainz 1/1 LOST -1.0 Bayern Munich to beat Werder Bremen 1/3 WON +0.33 Moenchengladbach to beat Hannover 3/4 WON +0.75 Ligue 1; Montpellier to beat Reims 9/10 WON +0.9 Week One LSP; +0.27 (Profit is profit!)

Week Two

Premier League; Man City to beat West Brom 1/3 WON +0.33 Aston Villa to beat Swansea 6/4 LOST -1.0 Burnley to beat Southampton 15/2 LOST -1.0 Stoke v Crystal Palace Draw 23/10 LOST -1.0 Arsenal to beat Newcastle 4/6 WON +0.67 Sunderland to beat West Ham 4/1 LOST -1.0 La Liga; Atletico Madrid to beat Getafe 1/3 WON +0.33 Malaga to beat Rayo 39/20 LOST -1.0 Levante to beat Celta Vigo 13/5 LOST -1.0 Deportivo to beat Espanyol 8/5 LOST -1.0 Bundesliga; Hannover to beat Dortmund 9/2 LOST -1.0 Koln v Werder Bremen Draw 12/5 WON +2.4 Stuttgart to beat Eintracht 6/4 WON +1.5 Wolfsburg to beat Mainz 5/4 LOST -1.0 Ligue 1; Bastia v Guingamp Draw 9/4 WON +2.25 Rennes v Nantes Draw 11/5 WON +2.2 St Etienne to beat Lille 1/1 WON +1.0 Monaco to beat Reims 20/21 WON +0.96 Week Two LSP; +2.64 3 of the 4 chosen draws landed, something to look out for and all 4 French tips won.

Week Three

Premier League; Everton v Southampton Draw 23/10 LOST -1.0 Leicester to beat West Ham 5/4 WIN +1.25 Chelsea to beat Stoke 1/3 WIN +0.33 Sunderland to beat Newcastle 13/8 WIN +1.675 La Liga; Sevilla to beat Bilbao 3/4 WIN +0.75 Malaga to beat Sociedad 10/11 LOST -1.0 Barcelona to beat Celta Vigo 4/9 WIN +0.44 Bundesliga; Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund 6/5 WIN +1.2 Freiburg to beat Koln 17/10 WIN +1.7 Werder Bremen v Mainz Draw 13/5 WIN +2.6 Ligue 1; Lyon to beat Guingamp 6/5 WIN +1.2 Lorient to beat Rennes 21/20 LOST -1.0 Montpellier to beat Bastia 9/10 WIN +0.9 Nantes v Caen Draw 23/10 LOST -1.0 Week Three LSP; +8.02 Very successful week of selections; all 3 won in Germany including the draw.

Week Four

Premier League; Swansea v Everton Draw 23/10 WON +2.3 Sunderland to beat Crystal Palace 19/10 LOST -1.0 West Ham v Stoke Draw 12/5 WON +2.4 Liverpool to beat Newcastle 4/9 WON +0.44 La Liga; Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano Draw 29/10 LOST -1.0 Villareal to beat Getafe 6/5 LOST -1.0 Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao Draw 23/10 LOST -1.0 Bundesliga; Moenchengladbach to beat Dortmund 19/10 WON +1.9 Bayer Leverkusen to beat Mainz 6/5 WON +1.2 Ligue 1; St Etienne to beat Nantes 8/11 WON +0.73 Evian TG to beat Lille 12/5 LOST -1.0 Rennes v Guingamp Draw 23/10 LOST -1.0 Week Four LSP; +2.97 Spain letting us down again but overall another successful weekend.

Week Five

Premier League; Leicester City to beat Swansea City 6/5 WON +1.2 Tottenham to beat Newcastle United 11/8 WON +1.37 La Liga; Athletic Bilbao v Getafe Draw 29/10 LOST -1.0 Almeria to beat Rayo Vallecano 18/5 LOST -1.0 Elche to beat Real Sociedad 17/10 WIN +1.7 Bundesliga; Hertha Berlin v Koln Draw 21/10 WON +2.1 Hamburger SV to beat Werder Bremen 14/5 LOST -1.0 Ligue 1; PSG to beat Nice 8/13 WON +0.63 Monaco to beat Rennes 7/10 LOST -1.0 Bordeaux to beat Lille 29/10 LOST -1.0 Caen to beat Montpellier 7/2 LOST -1.0 Week Five LSP; +1.00 A poor Sunday rescued by a big 1-0 win for Elche on Monday night.

Week Six

Premier League; Newcastle v Swansea Draw 23/10 LOSE -1.0 Liverpool to beat West Brom 21/20 LOSE -1.0 Manchester United to beat Everton 6/5 LOSE -1.0 QPR to beat West Ham 7/5 LOSE -1.0 La Liga; Barcelona to beat Espanyol 2/7 WON +0.29 Sevilla to beat Rayo Vallecano 4/9 WON +0.44 Real Madrid to beat Celta Vigo 8/13 WON +0.63 Bundesliga; Hannover 96 to beat Hoffenheim 6/4 LOSE -1.0 Bayer Leverkusen to beat Cologne 4/5 LOSE -1.0 Ligue 1; PSG to beat Lille 2/5 WON +0.4 Rennes v Nice Draw 12/5 LOSE -1.0 Toulouse to beat Nantes 23/20 LOSE -1.0 Monaco to beat Lens 3/4 WON +0.75 Week Six LSP; -5.49 It's all fallen to pieces in one weekend! The theory still stands up as Hull and Levante both had shock away wins but my personal selections weren't up to scratch.

Week Seven

Premier League; Swansea v Stoke Draw 12/5 LOSE -1.0 Burnley to beat West Ham 5/2 LOSE -1.0 Manchester United to beat West Brom 4/11 LOSE -1.0 Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace 4/11 WIN +0.36 La Liga; Atletico Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao 4/9 LOSE -1.0 Deportivo La Coruna to beat Villareal 13/5 LOSE -1.0 Epsanyol v Rayo Vallecano Draw 29/10 WIN +2.9 Almeria to beat Celta Vigo 29/10 LOSE -1.0 Bundesliga; Augsburg to beat Koln 6/5 LOSE -1.0 Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankurt Draw 29/10 LOSE -1.0 Borussia Moenchengladbach to beat Hertha Berlin 17/20 WIN +0.85 Ligue 1; Montpellier v Rennes Draw 12/5 WIN +2.4 Paris St Germain to beat Nantes 2/5 WIN +0.4 Reims to beat Guingamp 3/1 LOSE -1.0 Week Seven LSP; -2.09 Bad Saturday with short price favourites losing to mid-table sides but a good Sunday and winning draws again, food for thought.

Week Eight

Premier League; Aston Villa to beat West Ham 19/20 WIN +0.95 Tottenham to beat Stoke 13/8 LOSE -1.0 Arsenal to beat Swansea 1/3 LOSE -1.0 La Liga; Almeria to beat Malaga 17/10 LOSE -1.0 Sevilla to beat Celta Vigo 13/8 LOSE -1.0 Bundesliga; VfB Stuttgart to beat Mainz 11/10 WIN +1.1 Schalke 04 to beat Koln 17/10 LOSE -1.0 Ligue 1; Bordeaux to beat Nantes 8/13 WIN +0.63 Toulouse to beat Lille 13/8 WIN +1.68 RC Lens to beat Montpellier 7/2 LOSE -1.0 Week Eight LSP; -1.64 and a loss guaranteed with Arsenal too short favourites to overturn that on Monday Night. Harrumph.

Week Nine

Premier League; West Ham United v Everton Draw 5/2 LOSE -1.0 Burnley v Stoke City 23/10 WIN +2.3 La Liga; Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano Draw 3/1 LOSE -1.0 Elche v Athletic Bilbao Draw 5/2 LOSE -1.0 Valencia to beat Celta Vigo 8/13 LOSE -1.0 Villareal v Malaga Draw 14/5 LOSE -1.0 Bundesliga; Mainz v Koln Draw 5/2 LOSE -1.0 Hertha Berlin to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 21/20 LOSE -1.0 Ligue 1; Toulouse to beat Guingamp 19/10 LOSE -1.0 Week Nine LSP; -5.7 Very poor weekend in general that almost wipes out all the profit. Not sure if the first few weeks was luck and the theory is in fact false or if my personal selections haven't been up to scratch.