Last updated Apr 2, 3:21pm     man o bong on Systems    50 Comments    203546 Views

One of the most frequently asked questions about Horse Racing Betting - "Systems, do they work?"

There are three types of punters regarding systems and during this piece, I will refer to each in passing.

  1. Those that use systems, lose with systems and think they work.
  2. Those that have used systems, didn't win and don't accept that they can work.
  3. Those that have a system, win, don't tell, and are not believed to be credible!

In the most disparaging of fashion, I can testify that those punters that fall into categories 1 & 2 don't know what they are doing, and those in No3 do, but can't prove it.

In this post...

How to Find a System

I can not even begin to estimate the time and effort I have put in over the years in trying to find a "Golden Egg" system to beat the odds in Horse Racing. 

Even as I type this piece, I have a piece of software running in the background on this very laptop, collating thousands of bits (or is it Bytes?), of information from every Nursery run in the month of September for the past 11 years. 

It is assessing every runner, in every race distance. At the same time, it is also looking at every 3yo only handicap at every distance between 5f and 12f, and the same again for every 3yo+ handicap over the same distances. Once complete, and this will take a very powerful computer, something in the region of 8 hours to complete, I will have  a data set of literally millions of cells of information, which I will filter and play around with for many many hours before deciding on what the strategy will be for the coming month.

Building Systems Can be Boring

.....but stick with it, they can pay!

I do this every month, and I do it every year. For what may end up taking me something between 12-24 hours to complete, I may find one or two worthwhile bets to be struck, I may find twenty. It's a lot of work for a little action. That's the biggest problem with systems. THEY ARE BORING!

Because they are boring, many people you ask, "Systems, do they work?", will answer No2. The reason they do not believe they work is that they have looked at a system but don't understand the system. Don't understand probability and don't have the patience to see a system through.

I wonder how many people have started a system, whether it be a simple one such horses considered best drawn over 6f that are also Racing Post predicted favourite, or more complicated in using the second favourite in the Daily Mirror if the main Tipster has gone for it and it has previous course winning form. 

Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is, they all have credence if followed for a certain amount of time. 

I have no idea if either of the aforementioned ideas would work, I haven't checked. (if you want to try them, feel free, just mail me 10% if they turn out to be gooduns!) 

The main reason punter number two exists is because he wants a system that will provide instant results, instant profits and big ones at that! Well, don't we all? But it doesn't work that way. Sure, systems are born from a single idea, but they are very plant-like in that they need time investment (as well as cash), time to nurture, develop and "create" your winning system. They also have a lifespan and die. But more of that later.

How Long Before a Horse racing System Works?

Patience is Key with Systems

Many systems fail because creators do not give them enough time. With patience, they may not be failures at all!

The single most frequent reason for system failure is lack of patience. You've come up with a great idea. 

You've researched it and backtested it against previous results. 

You've come across the perfect system that can't fail to provide big profits, it's proven. 

So you go to work and back the very next qualifier; LOSE! And the next, LOSE! And the next and the next and you get the picture. 

Your average punter does not have the patience to back four losers, hell he may not have the bank after thinking he has stumbled upon the pot at the end of the rainbow, so the system is destined for the trash and the next qualifier isn't bet. You know what happens, BANG! WINNER 10/1! So he bets the next, LOSER! And the system is forgotten. 

The maths ignored. (this example at single point level stakes has provided 6 clear points and over 100% return on investment), but these numbers are lost on our punter. He is out of pocket and scanning the paper for a DEAD CERT favourite to recoup the losses. You know what I'm talking about, and if you have been a punter for any length of time you know how it feels. If you don't, you're in denial!

Your System Will Have Losers

Make sure you aware of the losing run expectation. It will happen, so be prepared

You've checked the system over hundred of previous qualifiers, races and bets and it worked. You've experimented with it in real life for only a handful of bets. Did you even realise that within your backtested results, there are losing runs of four, five even six runners? 

Do you know what the strike rate of your system is, do you know what level of return on investment to expect? Do you know the average price of not only the qualifiers but the ones that actually win? You have to give your system time, and you have to understand its idiosyncrasies. 

Every single little aspect of your system. You also have to know, you're not going to be running around in a Ferrari with a beach-fronted house in the background any time soon off the back of your system, like the guys in the adverts selling them are. They are not really, and you never will be. Sorry.

Systems are a fun and interesting way of betting for number crunching gambling geeks. (like me!). They are boring, almost hobby like. Systems can be winners too. But profits will be slow and steady at best.  That brings me on to number 3 answer.

Found a Winning System? Keep it to Yourself!

The more you share your system, the quicker it will fail!

If you find a system that is a winner, DONT TELL ANYONE. The absolute essence of a system is that it has a strike rate at odds that beat the probability set out and given by the bookmaker. It will be  small edge, but an edge all the same. And here comes your biggest enemy in systematic betting.


That's right. It is the foremost reason why systems are perceived to not work and often don't or eventually fail. 

Your selection process is set out at Point A, and never changes, but markets and odds change to account for such things. 

The easiest way to influence a market is to throw money at it. Throw too much at it, and the odds change, your small edge has now disappeared forever and you won't get it back. 

The more people you share your winning system with, the quicker their money will turn it into a losing system by affecting the odds you can get.

So. If you find a winning system that you want to keep, keep it to yourself. Herein lies the next problem, (if you consider systematic winning selections a problem!). When you tell people you have a winning system, THEY WON'T BELIEVE YOU unless you prove it to them. You prove it and kill your system. You don't prove it and continue winning and they think you're a liar. Hey Ho. 

It is ironic to say you can't win. So don't mention it at all, and you win all around.

The one thing you will have to do though is not only keeping it a secret but make your system your best friend too. 

Know everything about it. Know how it performs at different times of the year, or going conditions, or whether certain trainers are better or worse for your system. Look at your results every day. Be aware of the slightest change. Even without sharing your system, eventually, the odds will change against you. They always do. 

There are computerised algorithms being run continually over results, looking for trends. That 's what your system is. A trend. It may remain undiscovered for a time; a month, a year, three years but eventually things will change, and you will have to know your system well enough and understand the past results deeply enough to be able to accept that change and indeed change with it. 

You can only stay ahead of the game for so long. It will catch up. It always does. You just have to remain aware and one step ahead. Time investment will allow you that privilege

You can speculate yourselves as to whether you think the time I have spent looking for my system has born results or not. I'm not going to say. If I say I have, to retain any credibility I might have I will then have to give you details of a system and potentially kill it. If I say I have not yet found one, you'll laugh and tell me I've wasted my time.

How I Build a Racing System

What I will do, however, is share with you my research for September across the various race types, age groups and distances I am researching. 

I will look for some angles from the past results, that qualify my expectation in sample size, the frequency of runners to ensure they come regularly enough to stave off that boredom and strike rate that is sufficiently high enough to provide a return on investment of at least my minimum expectation with average winners price big enough to complete the prior two tasks. 

I shan't be looking for odds on winners with an 80% strike rate. Whilst still profitable, Kudos is hard to come by when suggesting people back odds on favourites. My favourite systems will have average starting prices of winners at over 7/2, and preferably toward 7/1. The only problem with the latter is that one can expect lengthy losing runs, but one winner in 7 runners is sufficient return. 

At 7/1 average winner starting price, I would expect to have a losing run of anything up to 2o at a time during the course of the system

It takes a very patient punter to sit through 20 consecutive losers and continue to throw money at the system. But it's that punter who then hits the three consecutive 7/1 winners to redress the balance long after the other, less patient one, has dumped it, accepted the loss and moved on to repeat the process on the next system, answering the original question with the number 2 answer!

I will give some pointers on past profitable angles for September betting for you to take away and do with what you want. 

I would suggest playing with it them, perhaps adding them in to coincide with your favourite, newspaper or internet tipster and back only when they correspond, or come up with some other extra variable, just to give it some differentiation. I shan't track them through the month and provide P&L, but I will pick on or two of the basis ones and give an update at the end of the month as to their success or failure whichever may be the case. There comes no guarantees with this information, and I hold no responsibility for what you do with it. 

Past results are just that, they do not predict with accuracy what WILL happen in the future, only what MIGHT! Try the ideas on paper first and only gamble what you can afford to lose.

Where to bet on your Horse Racing System

Once you have your system or are following a system, the next question is which is the best bookmaker to bet on horse racing?

Thankfully OLBG has a really in-depth guide as to the best place to bet on horses.

Getting the best betting odds is key of course, but there are other considerations to be made too.

From the best odds through every other aspect to consider betting with the right bookmaker is the icing on your horse racing system cake.

Where to bet on your system picks?

Getting best odds is key, as are other factors to consider.

Read this guide to the best bookmakers for Horse racing

Leave A Comment

If you are interested in Systematic betting on horseracing and have not tried it previously, or were not sure where to start, have a go. Let me know your thoughts, and without giving the details out, tell me if they work or not. Quite often the most successful systems are the most simple. One or two variables and there are thousands of combinations to be thought up, work best and keep the interest.

If you have any ideas on systems you might like me to check back results for, as long as the variables coincide with what my software is capable of, I will run them back if I think there might be something in them. If someone asks me to check all 2nd favourites in handicaps, I will refuse and confidently tell you that it is a system that doesn't work. But give me a go. You might uncover your very own gem.

  • What are your thoughts on Systematic betting? Not only for Horseracing but for other sports too.
  • Are certain sports better for System betting than others?
  • Are there sports that should be avoided for Systems, and why?
  • Have you ever bought a System? Did it work or did it fail?

Leave me a comment and let me know


Join us in the OLBG Horse Racing Systems Forum

We have an excellent horse racing systems forum where many of our members including MOB are trialling and discussing their systems. Some are consistently profitable. Please take a look, comment on some of the threads and if you wish, add your own system and selections. Join in here.

Comments (50)


 Aug 25th, 2012 at 06:49

Nice work MOB Im hoping to do a similar piece soon


 Aug 29th, 2012 at 22:44

Hi MOB big fan of your blogs.To further this topic may I suggest what you might consider to be the opposite of a system.The anti-system to coin a phrase.Instead of removing subjectivity from a selection process which it seems systems strive to do make your decision totally subjective.The legend that is Peter OSulliven who was known to have won some pretty large sums said as much in his autobiography.I think the reasons why certain punters not you of course! try to develop systems is because they are unable or have lost the ability to trust their own judgement.It is not uncommon for a punter to back a system selection while acually believing that another horse in the same race will win.When that other horse does win he curses himself for not trusting in his own judgement.Ok I know its not easy to win and its easy to be dismissive but all the information out there is available to bookmakers as well as us.We must find our own X-factor.Good luck in your quest MOB you are always a good read.

man o bong

 Aug 30th, 2012 at 23:28

Gazcaddy, I think that trying to improve them comes under the "lack of patience" I referred to. What sort of systems have you used in the past? Would you revisit some old selection criteria now, to see if in their raw form they could work again?

Roger Green

 Aug 30th, 2012 at 23:41

Fantastic stuff MOB... three facors above all others make for profitable betting1 Is the horse straight on the day of the race. I dont mean fit as most not all of them areI mean has it been ok in the last 24 hours. Eaten ok etc 2 Is it worse company than last time and better handicapped unless novice race3 Do connections gamble and if so is their money going downIf all 3 boxes are ticked its the most profitable system I know


 Sep 4th, 2012 at 20:57

started using dataform an i found it difficult to use at first then bought a couple books precision and efficiency of racetrack betting markets and the way of the turtle now all i need to do is get better with excel as youve said the hours need to turn the information into something useful is boring but then isnt that the difference between a mug punter an a professional ? or someone the bookies hate nowhere near being a professional but its a goal of mine lose less win more :O one thing ive learnt is that the bookies goal is to predict where the monies going an balance the books not what the results going to be good read mob keep up the good work

man o bong

 Sep 20th, 2012 at 15:51

Seriously Data? A Virtual System! Your partly right about not being interested in as much as investing in it but my curiosity does wonder how the system came about, and indeed how you get on with it. Please divulge


 Sep 21st, 2012 at 23:19

simply there is no system -in horse racing-horses are animals.they live .they are not machines.IN all the world of handicapping the races we refer to PAST performances but this is missleading since it shows how the horse DID perform not how it will perform.second -remember i m speaking about horse racing-speed all this figures are relative they can never be true others is class how can you measure class?? very difficult and all figures are at the end relative and not measureablethis is why handicappers fail


 Sep 23rd, 2012 at 22:15

impatience with the results of systems short-term is a common trait shared by many of us-me included .I bellieve the answer may be use a portfolio type approach to provide greater flexibility!

man o bong

 Sep 30th, 2012 at 16:24

Bingboy: regarding sample size, i feel it is relevant to prices gained. As a base point i would say, with my systems, generally finding winning sp's averaging around the 5/1 mark, a sample size of 100 bets would be ideal. In fact 100 would be my minimum regardless of price below 5/1. Should the winning sp prices be higher, then i would raise the sample size accordingly to account for the longer losing runs and lower strike rate. eg, 10/1, perhaps 200 bets. I'm glad you have found the article of use thus far, if you have further input i would be interested to hear it, indeed, if anyone else has. We never stop learning in this game. As far as betting bank is concerned, again, relative to the possibility of losing run, it should be sufficient to cover one or to of these, and as far as staking? Well i almost exclusively play single point level stakes


 Sep 30th, 2012 at 15:01

I have 2 very simple selection methods that I have been monitoring since the end of May with price restrictions on each. Both are showing profits at Betfair LSP less 5 commission in excess of 30 1 from over 400 bets the other from over 800 bets. Yet they have suffered longest losing runs of 18 pts and 60 pts respectively so your comments on patience struck a chord with me. I have other variations on this selection process that is also producing profits but from a far smaller number of bets so I was wondering if you had a view on what number of bets would make a satisfactory sample size to begin betting on the selections and how you would set the betting bank. At present I wait until I have 300 qualifiers then base my stakes on double the longest losing run at that point adjusting stakes accordingly if the longets losing run is subsequently exceeded.


 Sep 30th, 2012 at 15:05

Why cant you put the percentage symbol in these comments? My systems I prefer to call them selection methods are both showing profits in excess of 30 per cent. Thats what i was trying to say in the above comment.


 Oct 1st, 2012 at 18:38

I agree that single point level stakes are the most sensible staking plan - its just establishing the size of the bank that concenrs me. My most profitable system only backs selections at Betfair SP of 10.5 and above which does lead to some long losing runs. From 800 or so bets the longest losing run has been 60 points but with a strike rate of around 9 is it reasonable to expect runs much worse than that and if so how much worse?As far as sample sizes go Ive had systems that look good over 100 - 150 bets and then start to go wrong thats why Im more cautious now and wait until I have 300 results before betting with real money.


 Oct 1st, 2012 at 18:39

Strike rate of around 9.


 Oct 1st, 2012 at 18:39

Aargh 9 per cent.


 Oct 4th, 2012 at 23:04

Turfline all the bets are at a Betfair SP of 10.5 and above and despite a 60 point losing run it is presently showing level stakes profit of 380 points from 837 bets. None of the winners have been returned at anything above 28 so its not just down to a few freaky winners at massive prices. The win rate is over 9 per cent. Long losing runs are always going to happen when betting at big prices. All Im trying to establish is whether a run of much more than 60 points can reasonably be expected but I dont expect you to answer that.


 Jul 7th, 2013 at 00:58

Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is they all have credence if followed for a certain amount of timeI think you have summed it up in that one sentence.So many systems do actually have a limited period of success.Dont just look at the system you useie tunnel visionbut look at what is happening around in racesanalyse why the results are not forthcoming and adapt if required.


 Jul 7th, 2013 at 01:09

I will add that M.O.B talks a lot of sense particularly as regards systems.I have been known to seek his adviceand he appears to have a great deal of knowledge and resources to hand with honest opinions.Good informative blogthanks Marc!

man o bong

 Aug 2nd, 2013 at 20:17

Thanks for your feedback Tez, I'm not sure about your stats, they will differ from Flat, AW and National Hunt, but it is a reasonable suggestion so long as the strike rate and the average price of winners are sufficient. that's the beauty of systematic betting. It is always marginal, but half the fun is finding them!

Tipster Tez

 Aug 2nd, 2013 at 18:35

I use a fairly simple system but its one that also uses not only Paper FC but the Bookies Early prices. I figure that if the bookies have got a horse shorter than FC in Racing Post then they also think it has got a good chance of winning. Obviously there will be lots of qualifiers for this and I have narrowed them down to focusing on horses at less than 3/1`in the FC Tissue. There are other factors that rule horses out but like you said its best I keep them to myself.

Tipster Tez

 Aug 2nd, 2013 at 18:38

Another good thing about horse racing systems is that its useful also to concentrate on fields with no more than 12 runners maybe even 10. Not sure exactly what the percentage is but I believe 50 -60 of winners come from the first five in the betting. So with that in mind restricting selections in races of 10 or less should keep you getting half the winners - theoretically!


 Aug 23rd, 2013 at 12:32

Ive tried, many a system, but the problem is patience, and avoiding the first inevitable bad run


 Aug 26th, 2013 at 15:20

Ive been thinking about a system but I like most punters gamble at leisure. For me to consistently use a system it would need to be nearly completely automated or quick and simple. Time is money and to use a system in affordable amounts is generally underwhelming or not worth the investment and risk. Im convinced that systems can be hugely profitable and there are plenty of options or niches the less popular the better in many situations. But many require a lot of analysis have tight margins and always have variability which provides significant risk regardless of the system. The vast majority are like surfing a shark enjoy it while it lasts. There are certainly many low risk systems trading on market movement or disparity but require a decent size wallet patience and effort. Most punters didnt get into gambling to make 1 or 2 for a decent amount of effort those people work at insurance companies. Id like access to more statistics and the ability to check certain trends more deeply than I currently can but I have yet to find a way of accessing the information I would like in a way I am happy to spend interpreting.Personally Id look at lesser known elements of the market and by their nature they are hard to pin down as they are the bits often overlooked by others as well. But if you could see a specific trend with regards to increased development of horses between certain ages or trends of when certain horses/trainers turn losing form into winning I think there could be a bit more to be made from the pre-emptive attack on the market. Many systems and tipsters want trends and a decent amount of form for it to be statistically significant identifying improvement is a harder area to predict. But for that reason potentially more rewarding with significant analysis of the limited data while appreciating a reasonably high amount of volatility and risk comes with the territory.The majority of profitable people in the betting industry make money from being ahead of the market following it is saturated and with small rewards where identified.


 Oct 13th, 2013 at 12:33

Hello everyone.... I run a system based in past results since August with 3€ stake and my results are very satisfatory I think!!... With a 20€ bank I made already 100€ profit ~500.... And the system entered in about 300 races...My question is how can I be sure that my system is EV in a long run?? How many races do I need to feel secure about the system?? It´s a very low sampling yet?Note that like I´m betting in Betfair my bets are both Back and Lay.... The strike rate is about 61...Need some help with this....


 Dec 4th, 2013 at 18:46

Trainers Jockeys have reason but the most important is to see... is the horse competitive? Or not. Watch if the horse is competitive... it is amazing :Can you please tell me guys what you consider a good system? In 100 races what would be reasonable to hit win horses?Or E/W?Luis

man o bong

 Feb 5th, 2014 at 17:02

Hi Matt, welcome to OLBG, The forum is a great place to ask question but refrain from trying to advertise any services as you find an instant ban meted out - In terms of starting a tipping service, I ran one for three years. From my experience, I can tell you that it is not the bed of roses it may look at this stage. it takes an enormous amount of work, hard work, that will take up every single spare moment of your time for very little reward. When i say reward i mean emotionally. Despite having three consecutive years of profit, one singlebad month can decimate a membership list, and regardless of results expect hate mail by the sack load, ridicule from envious people,and even death threats - And this was from giving out profitable information, dont even get started on losing people money. You never know who you are dealing withm, whilst you have to be as open and honest as the day. Why did i give up my service? Because i came to hate the sport i loved with the pressure of having to provide information and knowing that peoples money was riding on my advice. I had members that were backing to such low stakes that they couldn't cover the subscription charge even in winning months, and other members that decidde not backing anything over 10/1 on my advice was a good idea, thuis cutting down their profits and in somemonth producing a loss when the months advice was in fact profitable - Far better to get yourself over to the forum,share you tips for free enjoy the adulation of the community who will praise on a winner and never ridicule on a loser - Goos luck and we hope to see you on the forum


 Apr 5th, 2014 at 00:44

Mob I ve been following your tips for few years now and u gave me few winners and thank you for that. all this systems and ideas dont mean much to me really that everyone s mentioning cos I believe in old school the horseunderstand the capabilitiesprocess the informationanalyze the tips that u can get hold of and hope for the best I the end of the day you must enjoy the racing thats whats all about: thanks again


 Apr 20th, 2014 at 08:07


 Apr 20th, 2014 at 08:36

hit add comment accidentally in aboveAnyway in relation to this this thread I think using systems is a mindset some people have the natural ability of self control and can use systems much more readily than others by saying that it is recognizing that self control is necessary there are people who can place a bet using a system and place another in 3 weeks time or whatever or whenever the next system choice comes along for others making small amounts grinds on patience and I think its this that makes a lot of people give up before they have given any system a fair chance to see if it returns a profit over time which is the objective of the exercise of using systems. a system even if it is not continually giving us profit is a way of money management it can help us regulate our spending / investing / gambling call it what we like. so to that end systems can be very useful helping us keep in control with some form of organization to what can become a very disorganized way to deal with our gambling. much the same way as someone who drinks Drinks are usually bought in measurements such as pints shots half pints etc we know and we relate to how much people drink usually by the measurements for example My granny drank 2 pints and a shot of brandy so the word is regulation and that is what a system brings to gambling it gives us a regulator on how much we spend/gamble and so helps us to manage our gambling money. I think that is the best part of what systems offer as far as getting rich be it quick or slow that is not going to happen anytime soon but of course being human we will keep trying to find that little nugget that no one else has discovered that can pick winners and make us wealthy and no harm in that its a fun pastime providing we are sensible and systems help us stay sensible help us manage our outgoings help us keep track of how we use our stake money. keeps us in the game longer which increases our chance of retrieving previous losses. it all helps never alter your system to get back losses dont chase after them. you will quickly get completely burned every gambling transaction is just that one transaction. if its a loss its over and should not be used as a tool to increase your next investment. stay with your system or your method you will get back losses in small amounts never try to retrieve all your losses with one big bet that would be total self destruction stay calm know your allowance for betting stick loyally with your chosen system. give it a fair chance stay in control just like your system helps you to.. if no returns are forthcoming you may want to acquire a new system thats acceptable. go right ahead above all use your self control and stay calm. its meant to be fun not a punishment.


 May 4th, 2014 at 20:40

Just started with five new systems. Much of the criteria for selecting is static except for the price which fluctuates.This is problematic in that I need to be on if the selection is in the first three in the betting. If it drifts out its not a bet.Frustratingly Ive watched to potential bets win at 14-1 and 25-1 recently.

man o bong

 May 6th, 2014 at 10:43

Price based systems in fluid markets are very difficult to manage - I long ago gave up this way of researching systems


 May 12th, 2014 at 14:46

Yes man o bong you are absolutely right.Cheesed off yet again as a 10-1 shot won on Saturday after drifting to joint-fifth fav.Therefore I was not on.With this mental beating I am taking at the moment have stripped back the criteria for my systems rebuilt them and in the prosess added three more.The only thing that can change now is the going with rregards to it being a bet or not.Tested all systems which actually combine to make one single system for 2011 2012 and 2013 and all years showed profit.Even 2014 is showing profit so I am hopeful.


 Jul 6th, 2014 at 10:26

just an update having started using my portfolio of systems at the beginning of May Im still going and after a good May much better that I ever expected have had a dismal June and a very poor start to July.If I hadnt been keeping records which I can refer back to to keep me disciplined and giving hope to continue I may well have quit by now.You see when Royal Ascot started I had a lot more bets and consiquently a lot more losers.Past records had indicated since 2011 that the longest string of losers was 27 achieved twice since then and a further 18 occasions when the losing runs varied between 26 and 16.Between the 13th and the 20th of June I had run up a sole destroying run of 42 consecutive losers - enough to put 99 of people off.However I have persevered with things.Looking back at the previous years records up to the end of July for each year:2011 profit £1.50 but year finished profit £58.722012 profit £55.40 with year finished profit £177.492013 profit £37.54 with year finished profit £139.512014 profit to date £40 39.Im trying to illustrate here the importance of keeping records of all bets. As well inputting all bets to an excel spreadsheet and working out to a £1 level stake I make notes about win percentage by course win percentage by year longest losing runs profit/loss to this time last year profit/loss on a monthly quarterly half-yearly and full yearly basis.Hope this gives some encouragement to anyone enduring a lengthy losing run.


 Jul 6th, 2014 at 14:24

And just a few lines about staking......Even though I bet using Betfair SP for higher returns all the results and future bets are worked out on my spreadsheet at Industry SP at level stakes but I wondered how I was going to progress - i.e. increase my stakes...... I thus hit on the idea of gradually increasing after a losing day.....Theoretically on paper I started the year with all qualifiers on day one carrying one pound.....remember that I didnt actually start betting until May.....There was only one qualifier and it lost so I upped my stakes for all qualifiers on day two to one pound and 10 pence.....There were three bets with one winner and a small profit of 83 pence.....So day three qualifiers all carried one pound and 10 pence again as I had showed a profit on day two.....The staking rule is hold on a winning day up it by 10 pence on a losing day........thus you would need ten losing days to move from an initial stake of one pound to two pounds.....This was the best way I could think of to come up with a compromise between keeping at level stakes and progressively increasing stakes......When I eventually started betting in May the stake was up to 5 pounds and 10 pence and it currently stands at 8 pounds and 10 pence.......the percentage of increase though is getting lower and lower as the stake gets bigger.......However it is important to point out that this is my personal staking plan and in no way reflects on the system stats that I update as that is using a one pound level stake at all times at Industry SP.

man o bong

 Jul 8th, 2014 at 10:04

I like you approach of minimal stake increase after a losing day - It is certainly not the first approach that comes to mind but of course,when expecting the next winners after losers, it does make some sense - I have always considered the % of bank staking as possibly flawed in making the most of the bank, and whilst it does indeed give some protection for losing runs, they come to an end just as winning ones do - I might take a look over some recent betting activity and see how it would have panned out over my valuebank selections for last seasons football


 Jul 8th, 2014 at 16:22

Please post your findings MOB It will be interesting to find out.....About my gradual increase betting strategy......I run the results upping by 10 pence on a winning day and holding on a losing day as well as the aforementioned that I am doing now just to see which was better before I got cracking.....The results showed very little difference with a slightly better return on increasing after a losing day which is why I adopted this strategy.....The initial 10 percent increase is OK to begin with as stakes are very low but to carry on at that level is counterproductive.......As I write there have been two more losing days thus my stake for tomorrow - the 9th - is set at £8.40 on all qualifiers which on a 10p increase is 1.2 percent......its next to nothing really.......If I am still going when I reach £25 per bet and heres hoping the percentage increase would only be 0.4 percent.


 Sep 30th, 2014 at 09:09

Tidalbay as an ex stable lad I know that fitness of both jockey and racehorse plus conformation,Is an important ingredient to finding. Faactor in progeny breading etc and you could be on a winner.


 Nov 7th, 2014 at 20:14

when looking at systematic betting correct score doubles can return great profit from only five selections cant say to much look at teams like york high percentage 1-1 or luton 1-0 etc choose your five and stick to it week in week out


 Dec 22nd, 2014 at 12:13

Dear MOB- my friend and I read your blog with great interest. after trying various methods and getting nowhere we have implemented a system based on the criteria that you have suggested. We have been rigorously strict in applying the criteria that we decided to implement as you suggest. Remaining focused and not letting ourselves stray from our parameters . Its very early days yet having only run the system over the last 3 days. We place very small e/w singles ruling out any horse that does not meet our criteria no matter how close it may be. Day 1 returned a 300 profit . Day 2 returned a 9 profit and day 3 returned a 34 loss . After 3 days we are showing a running profit of 39 and a strike rate of 47 placed horses and 10 winning horses. As I state its still very early days. We will continue the system for a month and Ill report again . Over the course of the last 3 days we had 30 horses that matched our criteria . Thanks for the guidance and helping us to focus

Jimbo W

 Jan 25th, 2015 at 18:39

What an absolutely marvelous thread. Ive dabbled for a couple of Seasons under NH rules concentrating on horses that have won by a wide margin. This works up to a point but the downside is that too many horses meet the selection criteria. Its a nightmare come Cheltenham as everyone that has anything resembling a four legged animal wants their horses to run. Last year I was having to back half the fields. All profit gained was lost and more over the four days. Of course the bets were theoretical so it didnt really matter. I am convinced there is some worth here but as of yet havent managed a way of limiting selections.


 Mar 14th, 2015 at 18:54

Just been re-reading this thread and thought it might be prudent to report on how 2014 turned out as a whole for the system I was doing.To be honest it was mixed. To explain I kept records of 1 pound levels at SP which finished on £38.03 in profit good but was hoping for better considering the system reached a high of £103.06 back in May.To my staking plan at Betfair prices the system was in profit to the tune of £1281.47 - with the stakes per bet now reaching £16.80.Just to recap that system actually comprised of 10 systems variations on a theme all rolled into one.Like I say results werent bad but not brilliantFor 2015 I decided to start from scratch again starting with £5 levels on all qualifyers but go with a make or break attituded so have added 26 systems along with my original 10 to give me 36 systems to try out this year.So far - not so good showing a loss at level stakes at SP of £31.27.Will report later in the year how its going.....

man o bong

 Mar 24th, 2015 at 19:49

You liability is your stake aoife You cant have a stake of 3pts AND a liability of 6pts - If your total liability is 6pts, that is the maximum you will lose.


 May 31st, 2015 at 11:34


 May 31st, 2015 at 11:34


 Jul 13th, 2015 at 18:58

My problem is I start a system and get frustrated.You need to stick to it impeccably.


 Jul 26th, 2015 at 12:38

ive tried about 8 systems and 1 will hit each day but they hard to hit when a very fast horse suddenly runs crap that day and breaks the slowest record. not been funny but if the horse is fast then its fast. you dont see usian bolt coming last in any race. its anyones race depending on if the horse is pushed....


 Aug 22nd, 2015 at 08:20

I have a golden egg system it is the Temps system. It makes money relentlessly. I tinker with it endlessly but never stop making money. I just like to play with it because the search for the goose that lays the golden egg is fun but what do you do when you find it? I never did it to make money. Just to prove I could and for that sense of superiority I get at the races or on OLBG when all around me are shouting and calling opining and hoping and I know more than anyone there. That is priceless. Its not far off from being the time when it could run itself and do everything automatically. God knows what I would do then. Some of my early success is down to you I had to restart my life after a life changing accident I had lost all confidence was physically and mentally weak you were a big help one of the most informative and helpful posters and bloggers on the site. TodayI dont read any blogs for weeks on end perhaps four or five a year its because I dont want any contamination of ideas. I do what I do and that works for me in the vacuum of not listening to any one elses opinion on horses even though I know that approach would cost many ordinary punters learning and winning. I like the purity of my own ideas and creating something unique. I have learned in the past to take no notice whatsoever to other peoples opinions unless they know something I dont or draw my attention to something I overlooked. that does happen since I am consumed by my system. The hardest thing I found was to like a friend/family but be able to look them in the eye and agree that their no hoper is the right horse. To fake losers on course and never boast of winners. I tell friends how envious I am of their winners and bemoan my luck say I wish I had backed the horse that won...I did back it... but friends dont want to hear that. Good luck with your Golden Egg


 Nov 4th, 2015 at 05:51

Like many people on here, I have tried many systems over the years, all devised by me. I usually get some early success, followed by too many losses to sustain. I have been researching my latest system, and it shows profit every month so far this year, between 25 points and 100 points each month. I put my tips on OLBG last month and made 55 points profit. I bet to a pool of 50 times my stake, and then just bet level stakes for the whole month, never increasing or decreasing. So far so good, but I will update again at the end of this month. Good luck to you all in bashing the boookies


 Aug 16th, 2016 at 21:03

A great piece of writing Mano and highly accurate. I admit to using a system and its still going strong 8 years on. I think the more complex they are the harder it is for the powers that be to back engineer it but complex also is mind numbingly slow to operate and takes many hours to find qualifiers where as simple can be effective but like you have stated will have a very short shelf life. Systems are the way to go their not clouded by opinion or gut feelings and i have found they are less prone to contradiction.


 Sep 14th, 2016 at 09:02

I wish I had a data-system like that. Can you help me get one? Do you think it can be used for tennis betting as well? cheers


 Oct 23rd, 2016 at 19:13

Did any of you good peeps see or remember a system called The Racing Worlds Worst Nightmare? As I recall it launched with an eye-watering price tag of £2000 and I managed to get hold of a copy many years ago not for £2k Ill quickly add. It was the most outrageous system Ive ever seen and Ive seen a lot broke every rule in the book and would have you on blood pressure medicine faster than a bad diet of alcohol and tobacco. I used to use it on Fridays when we were winding down for the weekend £30 bank starting with 20p bets - it really is for fun because the bets would get stupid after a few losses so its not a serious betting strategy. In all the time I messed about with it I always came out with a profit - I used to call it my Friday night takeaway system because it was usually good for paying for .....err well a Friday night takeaway. Happy to stick it on here but please be only!!

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