Sports Betting - Find the Value and the Winners will Look After Themselves

Updated: 9249 Other

Forget about looking for winners - Just look for value. Here Igive my perception of the much discussed, maligned and over-usedword in betting - VALUE!Forget about winners?Yes, stop looking for them. I don't mean go looking for the losers,although it

Sports Betting - Find the Value and the Winners will Look After Themselves
Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief

Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player

Forget about looking for winners

1. Just look for value. 

Here I give my perception of the much-discussed, maligned, and over-used word in betting - Value!

You can also read the betting school article which is dedicated to making profits with value betting.

2. Forget about winners?

Yes, stop looking for them. 

I don't mean go looking for the losers, although it amounts to the same thing. 

What we need when betting is value.

3. No Value Unless it Wins?

Wrong! 

Many people say there is no value in a price unless it wins. 

This is the most disastrous statement in sports betting; whether that be on football, horse racing, hockey, darts, or anything else you care to bet on.

There is an old saying; "look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves", this can be aligned to the title statement in this blog. 

Paper Testing

Why not paper test backing 2 selections in each race - one the horse you think will win and one that offers the best value.

Use Value Like a Bookie Does

By acting and making your selections in the same manner as the bookmakers do, you can find and exploit an edge in your betting. 

stats

The bookmakers will offer less than evens for a 50% chance bet. You'll get 10/11, (1.90), this provides them with a 10% buffer - their "edge"

As a punter, we need to do the very same. 

Find an event where the outcome of your selection has [in your opinion] a 50% chance and find a price of 11/10 (2.10). You now have the edge!

Of course, this is all subject of your own perception or reading of an event and the accuracy (which can only be gauged retrospectively) of your odds making.

Keep records of what odds you think your selection should be and the [higher] odds you have managed to obtain. 

Quickly you will have your own database which will indicate where you are more adept at finding your edge


Value in Sports Betting is a Mathematical Minefield

But it can be beaten.

value

It is a mathematical mine-field and you have to have the inclination to play with numbers, serious sports bettors will. 

They thrive upon the challenge of seeking out and exploiting the "edge". 

It is fair to say it may not have the excitement of a "gamble" but in the long term, the disappointment of seeing your betting bank decrease will not be as apparent.

Finally, If you agree with the bookie's odds - Do not bet, they have already factored in their edge so you will be swimming against the tide. 

The particular event may be a winner but it will still be bad value.

Find that 5%, 10% even 20% edge, and in the long term, your betting will be far more profitable. 

It is a strategy for the patient and measured punter and for those that truly strives to "Beat the Bookie"!

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