Six Nations 2024: Italy's Rugby Challenge and the Call for Expansion

The Six Nations – How To Solve A Problem Like Italy

As the 2024 edition of the Six Nations gets underway, the age-old question regarding Italy has once again come to the fore. Admittedly they did push England rather close in the first weekend of fixtures, but the end result was ultimately the same.

A 27-24 loss on home soil should be commended but at the same time for those aiming to fly the flag for Italian rugby and say the competitive gap is finally closing, the counterpoint could just as easily be a misfiring England side in opposition.

Another defeat for the Italians and their annual quest to pass the wooden spoon on to somebody else has begun in earnest and with the team and this piece of cutlery having a rather symbiotic relationship, one wonders if it needs breaking once and for all.

Italy Coach Gonzalo Quesada
By Fanny Schertzer - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=35088095

Especially as the expansion from Five to Six Nations has not necessarily been a successful one, yes you could argue that interest in the tournament has increased but all it has seemingly done is introduce a whipping boy into proceedings.

With Italy joining the fray in 2000, it heralded a new era for international rugby within Europe and for all the excitement that came with a new entrant at the turn of the millennium, that excitement has somewhat dissipated over the years.

The reason for this dissipation is that Italy have a habit of propping up the other five entrants and in the 24 complete editions (2000 to 2023), this is how they have fared each year: 

Of the 120 matches that Italy have contested between 2000 and 2023, they have won just 13 with an additional draw to go alongside it. This means that 106 have ended in defeat, in percentage terms this is as high as 88.3%. 

Just 13 memorable moments for the Italian rugby fanbase to cherish since 2000, seven of those have come at the expense of Scotland. More than the French, Irish and Welsh combined with two, one and three respectively.

While England have the honour of never being beaten by the Italians at the Six Nations and this is displayed in the annual results table below: 

Nearly nine in ten matches see Italy on the wrong side of the scoreline and if you averaged all their points for and against, the scoreline would be a 14-34 loss. Little for them to write home about and even more so when we look at where they have finished each year: 

18 of their 24 completed Six Nations pursuits have finished with Italy finishing last – three quarters of all previous attempts. The high watermark of success being in both 2007 and 2013 where the Italians managed to upset the ranks and finished fourth in each year.

The only other years where they have avoided last place was when they finished fifth on four separate occasions. 2003, 2004, 2012 and 2015 being the years where an element of further respectability was added to the board.

75% of all Six Nations attempts have seen Italy with the wooden spoon in their hands by the end of it. Is that a figure that is far too high and ultimately how do you fix a problem like this going forward? More importantly can you fix a problem such as this? 

Ultimately it all depends on your definition of the problem, in terms of broadcasting there is no problem regarding Italy’s continual participation and this is reflected in the 2023 viewing figures below: 

In this sample of 2023 matches, you can see that the games of both BBC1 and ITV1 have seen no less than 2.91m viewers per game, with England’s matches against Ireland and Scotland doing the heavy lifting at just over 4.5m in each.

Even when looking at the 2023 clash between England and Italy, the viewing figures only dropped down to just over 3.5m, highlighting that from a broadcasting sense rugby fans are not turning away in their droves.

Not only that but the package of rights that were sold to these two broadcasters for the 2022 to 2025 rights cycle is worth £100m a year and with the two main British channels prepared to stump up this money to avoid it going behind a paywall, they must believe they are getting value for money.

They may be getting value you for money but are the BBC and ITV getting enough and with the next rights cycle soon to be up for grabs, there is always the fear that the likes of Amazon, Sky or TNT will look to get in on the action.

Which means one of two things, it either drives the price up in a bidding war and the current status quo have to pay more for what they already have or it goes on to another platform and interest in the competition begins to wane because of the paywall it is now behind.

If the broadcasters believe they are happy with the product that they are paying for and the money that they are paying to get their hands, they themselves are not going to be clamouring for Italy to be sent packing out of the competition but is that view shared by those who watch the game?

With the Six Nations being the format that it is, somebody always has to finish last. Unfortunately for Italy, it happens to be them on 75% of the previous tournaments and with the strength of the other five competitors, that figure is unlikely to be seriously eroded over the next decade or so.

But what will the Six Nations look like in the next decade, is it a competition that is hamstrung by its name? On the one hand it is, on the other hand it is not. First we will look at how it is hamstrung and that is the fact that ultimately the Six Nations must have six entrants.

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Therefore, any expansion plan would need a change name and a change of brand. Would a Seven Nations be too big? That depends on who that seventh nation would be and with South African club teams already playing in the United Rugby Championship, the Springboks could be a perfect addition.

Admittedly South Africa is a long way away from Europe but perhaps more importantly it is in the same time zone and from a broadcasting point of view, this would only enhance proceedings without having awkwardly scheduled Seven Nations matches.

With the experience of South Africa versus European clubs already established, the integration would be rather seamless, the only real problem is whether the competition size would then become too bloated within an already packed rugby calendar.

The current beauty of the Six Nations is that there are no teams kicking their heels within the five game weekend. With an additional seventh nation, it then becomes six game weekends and one team being inactive each time around.

Of course, there could be another way around this and if you are going to seven nations, you may as well go to Eight and with Georgia more than holding their own in the Rugby World Cup not to mention winning the second tier European Championship, they have their own strong case to enter.

If it were to be eight nations involved, the format of the competition would arguably have to change from the existing round robin that is in place. For an eight-team tournament to work, two pools of four would need to be in place before an additional set of ranking matches.

For example, the top two in each pool would move on to the semi-finals, finals and 3rd/4th playoff, the bottom two would move on to a playoff format to eventually decide who finishes in the remaining five places (following the same format at the championship route).

Could the 6 nations be extended to further teams? Even outside of Europe?

This would mean the same number of competitive matches for each nation that currently exist in the Six Nations but matches would arguably have a bit more needle in them, especially when there would be an outright winner at the end of each year.

Because one of the slight criticisms regarding the current round robin format is that although a league setup rewards consistency over the five weeks of fixtures, it also can boil down to an exercise in who can beat Italy by the highest score.

Admittedly, this has been lessened by the awarding of additional bonus points but if say France, England and Ireland win the same number of Six Nations matches in a year and there is a three-way tussle at the top, a heavy victory over Italy may be the deciding factor in who wins outright.

Therefore, with a pool stage and finals setup, the race for points would come to an end and a genuine victor could be crowned each year. A format that provides even more value for broadcasters, but it does come at a slight cost.

With a pool format in place, not every team would play everyone as they do now. For example, the annual Calcutta Cup clash between England and Scotland may not go ahead due to the two nations being placed in opposite pools.

One that the purists would not take to kindly to but maybe it is the purists that are holding progress back. With no format change since 2000, there is a sense that the Six Nations needs to evolve to stay front and centre in a crowded sporting landscape.

The addition of South Africa and Georgia to make it the Eight Nations would not only aid the evolution but also give Italy a chance at being competitive as wins could be picked up against the former Soviet republic.

A few wins there and momentum starts to build, then Italy may be able to mix up with their traditional counterparts on a far more regular basis. If that is the case, the quality of this newly enlarged tournament only increases further.

Better quality = more eyes on the product

More eyes on the product = higher broadcasting fees

Therefore, the question regarding Italy in the Six Nations is answered by not getting rid of them but by adding two more nations to the party each year.

Sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy_national_rugby_union_team

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1441433/tv-viewers-six-nations-uk/

https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/six-nations-rugby-event-analysis/