Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
Which are the most profitable Premier League Clubs to bet on?
When it comes to football betting of any kind, it is always better to remove your biases beforehand. Because although supporters always believe their team will win each week (or at least they should), this is never the case.
Which means although blind loyalty is a rather commendable trait, it Is also one that can get you in something of a bind and with logic going out of the window, profits in your betting account rarely follow.
Then again, this loyalty also gives us a perfect reason to dive deep into the data once again and this time, we are going to ignore all the form guides, injury news and statistics and see what would happen if you bet on the same team each week.
Not only that, but we are also going to bet on the same 20 teams each week to see which teams would generate overall profit by the end of the Premier League campaign.
P&L based on 1pt level stakes. Full methodology below
2024/25 Full Season Results
| Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest | 38 | 58.77 | 20.77 | 54.66% |
| Fulham | 38 | 43.78 | 5.78 | 15.21% |
| Bournemouth | 38 | 43.09 | 5.09 | 13.39% |
| Everton | 38 | 40.95 | 2.95 | 7.76% |
| Aston Villa | 38 | 40.76 | 2.76 | 7.26% |
| Brighton | 38 | 40.41 | 2.41 | 6.34% |
| West Ham | 38 | 38.8 | 0.8 | 2.11% |
| Newcastle | 38 | 38.74 | 0.74 | 1.95% |
| Brentford | 38 | 38.52 | 0.52 | 1.37% |
| Wolves | 38 | 36.99 | -1.01 | -2.66% |
| Liverpool | 38 | 35.9 | -2.1 | -5.53% |
| Crystal Palace | 38 | 34.76 | -3.24 | -8.53% |
| Chelsea | 38 | 33.37 | -4.63 | -12.18% |
| Man City | 38 | 31.47 | -6.53 | -17.18% |
| Arsenal | 38 | 30 | -8 | -21.05% |
| Ipswich | 38 | 26.8 | -11.2 | -29.47% |
| Tottenham | 38 | 25.75 | -12.25 | -32.24% |
| Man United | 38 | 24.99 | -13.01 | -34.24% |
| Leicester | 38 | 19.1 | -18.9 | -49.74% |
| Southampton | 38 | 6.43 | -31.57 | -83.08% |
The most striking aspect of this table is that neither Liverpool and Arsenal are not vying for supremacy. Although these two sides were the main players in the 2024/25 title race, it would have made little difference when hunting for profits.
The top two teams in last season’s Premier League were not top-of-the-shop regarding profitability throughout the previous campaign. Champions Liverpool found themselves lying 11th; the Gunners had to make do with second on the pitch and 15th in our profit table.
The reason for such minimal returns on the best teams is linked to their pre-match odds and with nothing in the way of true value when backing either of these two sides to win, any failure to do so will erode any previous winnings.
Profit vs Glory: Analyzing Premier League's Earnings Table vs. Standings
If you imagine City are priced at 1/20 (1.05) to win at home, a victory for Pep Guardiola’s men is only going to return 5p off a £1 stake and although 20 wins at these odds would put £1 in the profit column, a home draw would quickly wipe it out.
This means we have to look elsewhere for the true profit stories and this time, it is Nottingham Forest who find themselves as the Premier League profit champions. With £38 being spent across last season, it would mean a return of £58.77 for the West Midlands outfit – a 54.66% ROI.
The reason for such incredible returns is due to such an incredible season at the City Ground. One that saw Forest secure European football (albeit, their placing in the Europa League has caused controversy) and because of so many upset result that overturned the odds, it is Nuno Espirito Santo's men who find themselves top of the pile.
At one stage it looked as if Nottingham Forest were going to be rewarded with a place in the Champions League and were it not for a late slump in form, they could have been mixing it with Europe's elite at the start of the 2025/26 campaign.
However, that should not take the shine of their season a whole and especially when you consider the level of profitability that they generated.
Profit Champions: Nottingham Forest's Impressive Return-on-Investment
Second in the profit table saw Fulham upset the applecart and although Marco Silva's men may have missed out on European qualification, there were plenty of reasons to be cheerful at Craven Cottage.
None more so than their impressive showing against eventual Premier League champions Liverpool. A home win for Fulham was not predicted by the bookmakers and this played a substantial in the eventual profit that was returned by the Cottagers.
Although their season run out of steam towards the end, Fulham would eventually create a profit of £5.78 or 15.21% - a return on your investment that is definitely not to be sniffed at.
A notable mention must go to Bournemouth and although like Fulham their own European bid would falter because of a lack of late season puff, the Cherries' 2024/25 season was far from sour.
Andoni Iraola's men were another team that promised much but sometimes failed to deliver. However, they are capable of pulling off a shock - none more so than the win over Arsenal at the Vitality Stadium and that result helped them earn an eventual profit of £5.09 or 13.39% in terms of ROI.
To round out the top four, Everton found form at the end of the season once they swapped Sean Dyche for the returning David Moyes. A late run of victories would have turned overall loss into profit and come the end of the season, the Toffees would find themselves £2.95 better off and 7.76% up on initial ROI.
THE HORROR STORIES
Nine found profit at the end of the season, the four mentioned above going alongside the quintet of Aston Villa, Brighton, West Ham, Newcastle and Brentford.
While the reason 45% of the league's teams found themselves in profit this season is because the division was far more open than in previous seasons and with the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United misfiring on a regular basis, the opportunity to find profit lied elsewhere.
Relegated Teams Suffering On and Off The Pitch
However, you only need to look at the teams who were relegated to know how tough a season they had both on the field and in terms of profitability. Southampton propping the other 19 teams up in both aspects with the St Mary's outfit finding themselves £31.58 out of pocket. A return of just £6,43 means backing the Blades via this system would have meant an overall -83.08% decrease on ROI.
Then again, things were not all that much better at Leicester either and with the King Power Stadium outfit also going down at the first time of asking, the Foxes genereated a return of £19.10. A loss of £18.90 and a negative ROI of -49.74%
A similar story also created at Portman Road and with Ipswich also suffering the drop, Kieran McKenna's men returned just £26.80. A loss of £11.20 and a negative return of 29.47%
PROFIT VERSUS FINISHES
| Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 15.21% | 2 | 11 | -9 |
| Everton | 7.76% | 4 | 13 | -9 |
| West Ham | 2.11% | 7 | 14 | -7 |
| Nott'm Forest | 54.66% | 1 | 7 | -6 |
| Bournemouth | 13.39% | 3 | 9 | -6 |
| Wolves | -2.66% | 10 | 16 | -6 |
| Ipswich | -29.47% | 16 | 19 | -3 |
| Brighton | 6.34% | 6 | 8 | -2 |
| Aston Villa | 7.26% | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Brentford | 1.37% | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| Crystal Palace | -8.53% | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Tottenham | -32.24% | 17 | 17 | 0 |
| Southampton | -83.08% | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Leicester | -49.74% | 19 | 18 | 1 |
| Newcastle | 1.95% | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Man United | -34.24% | 18 | 15 | 3 |
| Chelsea | -12.18% | 13 | 4 | 9 |
| Liverpool | -5.53% | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| Man City | -17.18% | 14 | 3 | 11 |
| Arsenal | -21.05% | 15 | 2 | 13 |
Another way to measure the performance of the 20 teams is to measure their rank in terms of profit and compare it next to their final position in the 2024/25 Premier League table and it does not make good reading as far as Arsenal are concerned.
The Gunners generated the biggest disparity between their profit rank and their league finish. 13 places was the margin between the two. Second in the Premier League, 15th when it comes to profitability.
While Manchester City had to make do with second regarding the biggest difference between the two metrics. A eleven-place difference sees them ahead of Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United with a positional differnce of ten, nine and three places respectively.
United's dreadful season under both Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim's tenures saw the Red Devils record an overall loss of -34.24% as they only returned £24.99 from the £38 spent.
As for the other big six member, Tottenham had no positional difference but that does not give them reason to be cheerful. 17th in the table, matched by being 17th in the profitability charts. The North London outfit recording a loss of -32.24%
At the other end of the scale, Fulham and Everton find themselves celebrating. Both clubs were nine places better off when comparing profit rank to the league placing. West Ham finishing third in terms of positive outcomes with a seven-place difference between the two metrics.
METHODOLOGY
- £1 stakes
- £1 goes on each team to win their Premier League fixture, of which they are 380 in total
- If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up
- If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded
- With each team playing 38 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.
Data correct as of 17th July 2025
