Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
Which are the most profitable Premier League Clubs to bet on?
When it comes to football betting of any kind, it is always better to remove your biases beforehand. Because although supporters always believe their team will win each week (or at least they should), this is never the case.
Which means although blind loyalty is a rather commendable trait, it Is also one that can get you in something of a bind and with logic going out of the window, profits in your betting account rarely follow.
Then again, this loyalty also gives us a perfect reason to dive deep into the data once again and this time, we are going to ignore all the form guides, injury news and statistics and see what would happen if you bet on the same team each week.
Not only that, but we are also going to bet on the same 20 teams each week to see which teams would generate overall profit by the end of the Premier League campaign.
P&L based on 1pt level stakes. Full methodology below
2023/24 Full Season Results
| Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 38 | 51.62 | 13.62 | 35.84% |
| Wolves | 38 | 46.37 | 8.37 | 22.03% |
| West Ham | 38 | 43.03 | 5.03 | 13.24% |
| Crystal Palace | 38 | 41.87 | 3.87 | 10.18% |
| Arsenal | 38 | 40.94 | 2.94 | 7.74% |
| Everton | 38 | 37.86 | -0.14 | -0.37% |
| Fulham | 38 | 37.53 | -0.47 | -1.24% |
| Newcastle | 38 | 36.99 | -1.01 | -2.66% |
| Man United | 38 | 36.84 | -1.16 | -3.05% |
| Man City | 38 | 36.08 | -1.92 | -5.05% |
| Tottenham | 38 | 35.69 | -2.31 | -6.08% |
| Bournemouth | 38 | 35 | -3 | -7.89% |
| Liverpool | 38 | 34.95 | -3.05 | -8.03% |
| Chelsea | 38 | 32.95 | -5.05 | -13.29% |
| Nott'm Forest | 38 | 32.63 | -5.37 | -14.13% |
| Luton | 38 | 25.9 | -12.1 | -31.84% |
| Brentford | 38 | 25.61 | -12.39 | -32.61% |
| Brighton | 38 | 24.35 | -13.65 | -35.92% |
| Burnley | 38 | 15.38 | -22.62 | -59.53% |
| Sheffield United | 38 | 12.75 | -25.25 | -66.45% |
The most striking aspect of this table is that Manchester City and Arsenal are not vying for supremacy. Although these two sides both won 28 league outings respectively, it would have made little difference when hunting for profits.
The top two teams in last season’s Premier League were not top-of-the-shop regarding profitability throughout the previous campaign. Champions City found themselves lying 10th; the Gunners had to make do with second on the pitch and fifth in our profit table.
The reason for such minimal returns on the best teams is linked to their pre-match odds and with nothing in the way of true value when backing either of these two sides to win, any failure to do so will erode any previous winnings.
Profit vs Glory: Analyzing Premier League's Earnings Table vs. Standings
If you imagine City are priced at 1/20 (1.05) to win at home, a victory for Pep Guardiola’s men is only going to return 5p off a £1 stake and although 20 wins at these odds would put £1 in the profit column, a home draw would quickly wipe it out.
This means we have to look elsewhere for the true profit stories and this time, it is Aston Villa who find themselves as the Premier League profit champions. With £38 being spent across last season, it would mean a return of £51.62 for the West Midlands outfit – a 35.84% ROI.
Aston Villa were arguably the perfect balance between being largely dominant in the top tier and just offering enough in the way of value every week. Value that comes with Unai Emery's men finishing fourth last season and in fairness to even the most ardent Villa fans or the most generous bookmakers, that is not something that would have been predicted at the start of the campaign.
Of course, we should not overlook the fact that the Villa Park outfit ended the campaign with 20 wins to their name, and this was enough to earn Champions League football for 2024/25 but also £13.62 profit in this system.
Profit Champions: Aston Villa's Impressive Return-on-Investment
Second in the profit table saw another West Midlands upset the applecart and although Gary O'Neil may not have been the most inspiring appointment by the Molineux outfit, he would go on to make the team self-sufficient with the bookmakers.
Although their season run out of steam towards the end, Wolves did manage to pull off a string of impressive performances, and in doing so, they would eventually create a profit of £8.37 or 22.03% - more than a quarter return on your investment is definitely not to be sniffed at.
A notable mention must go to West Ham and although they would eventually say goodbye to manager David Moyes, the East London outfit would become the third most profitable team using our system.
David Moyes' men were another team that promised much but sometimes failed to deliver. However, they are capable of pulling off a shock - none more so than the win over Arsenal during the festive period and that result helped them earn an eventual profit of £5.03 or 13.24% in terms of ROI.
To round out the top four, Crystal Palace found form at the end of the season once they swapped Roy Hodgson for Oliver Glasner. A late run of victories would have turned overall loss into profit and come the end of the season, the Eagles would find themselves £3.87 better off and 10.18% up on initial ROI.
THE HORROR STORIES
Only five teams found profit at the end of the season, the four mentioned above and Mikel Arteta's Arsenal who returned a total of £40.94 to generate a surplus of £2.94 (7.74%)
While the reason so few teams found themselves in profit this season is because the division was far more open than in previous seasons and with the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United misfiring on a large scale, they were suffering a dent in their expected profits.
Add this to midtable teams who will largely win and lose in near equal measures (perhaps more of the latter) and this means the chance to generate profit is quickly wiped out.
Relegated Teams Suffering On and Off The Pitch
However, you only need to look at the teams who were relegated to know how tough a season they had both on the field and in terms of profitability. Sheffield United propping the other 19 teams up in both aspects with the Bramall Lane outfit finding themselves £25.25 out of pocket. A return of just £12,75 means backing the Blades via this system would have meant an overall -66.45% decrease on ROI.
Then again, things were not all that much better at Burnley either and with the Turf Moor outfit also going down at the first time of asking, the Clarets genereated a return of £15.38. A loss of £22.62 and a negative ROI of -59.53%
A similar story also crated at Kenilworth Road and with Luton also suffering the drop, Rob Edwards' men returned just £25.90. A loss of £12.10 and a negative return of £31.84%
PROFIT VERSUS FINISHES
| Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -8.03% | 13 | 3 | 10 |
| Man City | -5.05% | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| Chelsea | -13.29% | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| Brighton | -35.92% | 18 | 11 | 7 |
| Tottenham | -6.08% | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| Arsenal | 7.74% | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Newcastle | -2.66% | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Man United | -3.05% | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Brentford | -32.61% | 17 | 16 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | -7.89% | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Burnley | -59.53% | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| Sheffield United | -66.45% | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Nott'm Forest | -14.13% | 15 | 17 | -2 |
| Luton | -31.84% | 16 | 18 | -2 |
| Aston Villa | 35.84% | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| West Ham | 13.24% | 3 | 9 | -6 |
| Crystal Palace | 10.18% | 4 | 10 | -6 |
| Fulham | -1.24% | 7 | 13 | -6 |
| Everton | -0.37% | 6 | 15 | -9 |
| Wolves | 22.03% | 2 | 14 | -12 |
Another way to measure the performance of the 20 teams is to measure their rank in terms of profit and compare it next to their final position in the 2023/24 Premier League table and it does not make good reading as far as Liverpool are concerned.
The Merseyside men generated the biggest disparity between their profit rank and their league finish. 10 places was the margin between the two. Third in the Premier League, 13th when it comes to profitability.
While Manchester City had to make do with second regarding the biggest difference between the two metrics. A nine-place difference sees them ahead of Chelsea, Brighton and Tottenham with a positional differnce of eight, seven and six places respectively.
As for the other big six members, Arsenal had to make do with a positional difference of three places worse, by comparison Manchester United were just one - the same value as rivals Newcastle.
At the other end of the scale, Wolves and Everton find themselves celebrating. Wolves were 14 places better off when comparing profit to league ranking, the Toffees nine. However, with them both finishing in the lower reaches mid-table at the end of the season, it is fair to say this accolade does not mean all that much.
METHODOLOGY
- £1 stakes
- £1 goes on each team to win their Premier League fixture, of which they are 380 in total
- If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up
- If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded
- With each team playing 38 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.
Data correct as of 1st July
