I mostly bet on football and horse racing and tend to make 'mug bets' pay. I'm quite a selective punter and will only bet on certain types of match/race and I shy away from shorter price favourites.
Home and away form is one of the biggest considerations when betting on football, Stoke are often a great bet at home but a dreadful bet away, backed up by their 21 home points this season and their 9 away points. I like stats when there are strong reasons for those stats, Stoke’s pitch is a very narrow giving them an advantage from set pieces (from which they are well drilled) and there is also the famous 12th man for Stoke, their home crowd.
The same goes for players too but I don’t think people put enough consideration into this when betting on goalscorers. Certain players are more likely to score their goals either home or away and although that can often be determined by how good their team is at home or away, it can also be determined by the type of player involved with many top strikers struggling for goals away from home even when their team does well away from home.
In the 10/11 Premiership season Dimitar Berbatov scored 16 goals at home from 12 starts and 2 sub appearances, Wayne Rooney scored just 4 from 12 starts and 3 sub appearances. On the road in the same season Berbatov scored just 4 goals from 12 starts and 6 sub appearances whilst Wayne Rooney scored 7 in just 13 starts.
In that season backing Berbatov to score at home and Rooney to score away would have been a great strategy, however if you’d backed Rooney at home and Berbatov away it wouldn’t. Clearly showing how much consideration needs to go into goalscorer bets depending on teams being home or away.
In Fernando Torres’ first season at Liverpool he scored a remarkable 24 league goals. How many of those came at away grounds? Half? A quarter? Actually he only managed 3 away goals that season, meaning 87.5% of his goal haul came at Anfield. He may be a shadow of his former self but his goalscoring ability away from home hasn’t got any worse, he’s scored 3 away goals in the league this season for Chelsea!
|Adam Le Fondre||3 (8)||8||Luis Suarez||12||8||Michu||12||8||Olivier Giroud||6 (6)||8||Robin Van Persie||10 (2)||8||Demba Ba||10||7||Theo Walcott||8 (3)||7||Carlos Tevez||9 (3)||6|
|Robin Van Persie||10 (2)||10||Luis Suarez||12||9||Gareth Bale||11||8||Juan Mata||9 (1)||7||Steven Fletcher||11||7||Demba Ba||9 (1)||6||Edin Dzeko||4 (7)||6||Jermain Defoe||11 (1)||6||Rickie Lambert||9 (3)||6||Santi Corzola||12||6|