Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
So you are at your computer ready for days betting or trading or maybe both. You will be looking for value betting opportunities to make your day profitable.
As you take your seat you will have a clear expectation of how your betting day is going to pan out from a financial point of view.
There will be plenty of factors that have led you to this expectation and messages going through your brain will be competing with each other. Your current personal circumstances and your overall well being will also play a part, as will past betting performance.
As an example when you place full cover bets such as Yankees or Heinz's you calculate the payout, we all do, you have visions of winning a life-changing amount, your bet may do well and you may find some winners but others lose so you end up disappointed. You bet £20 your return is £55 but it could have been £20000 had they all won. You were motivated by the result that could have been so you think to yourself I won't bother with the full cover bets again " I never win"
The next day you are again at your computer, on a quiet betting day you have one fancy for a short-priced horse at 7/4, other people are talking about it, you have looked at the form all seems in place for a good run, you bet £20. The horse duly scoots up by 10 lengths and your judgment is correct and a warm glow comes over you as you realize your brilliant tipping analysis was proved correct. You are a tipster to follow.
As you have all probably realised the financial return for both the above scenarios is exactly the same. But one outcome we regard as a failure and a waste of time and the other is pointing us towards nirvana and an easier life.
Backing 1 winner at 12/1 and 10 losers return a bigger cash amount than backing two winners at 4/5 yet our brains tell us that the two 4/5 winners are better.
When you take your driving test for the 1st time you hope to pass and others hope you pass but if you don't you, your friends, your family are not hugely surprised because they know a lot of people do not pass first time and they are consoling and understanding towards you. However move that on to when you take the test for the third time and all the talk ahead of the test is about when you pass, what car you will buy, where will you go when you have the freedom to drive. The expectation is that you will pass.
So in betting terms how should we approach the day and how should we react at the end of the day? My take on it would be that you should hope to do well having studied fully, and if you make a profit however small you should regard that as a roaring success and walk away happy.
You have whole bookmakers trading floors lined up against you with resources and staff numbers you can only dream of. If you can make a daily profit with those odds stacked against you then you are making a success from your betting.