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Do you know that there are systems and software out there that could have predicted that 4/7 winner ?

This is the kind of information that is surely worth a big subscription every month.

I mean nearly a half-point profit on a horse that nobody else could find. 

Our service meant you were on early, you hoovered up all the 4/7 you could, thanks to our man on the gallops.

Apologies for my facetious tone, it's just that I have been trawling the net looking at a few sites, watching demos of computer form books and football software. 

This blog is actually about a strange tendency that they all seem to have when demonstrating the capabilities of the various databases they have (even the good ones).

WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO GIVE YOU A GRAND?

I am sure your answer to this question is YES,

I know if you were to ask me the same question you will get a yes. 

In the spirit of the database boys, would you first open up a document to get this answer? 

Would you cross-reference a huge database of information over and over to answer this query?

You know your answer, you are fairly confident in your answer, more importantly, I know your answer and nobody will be surprised by your answer and therein lye's my point.

LET ME SHOW YOU HOW GOOD I AM.

I stumbled upon a popular football formbase , now first let me say that I don't subscribe to it and can neither recommend nor dissuade you to do so, it looks like an interesting piece of kit, I am simply making a point about a video tutorial I sought out.

The tutorial starts off well enough with a thorough going-over of all the applications and various cross-examinations available,

At this point, an example is given which shows just how good the software is, after doing all of the various checks and data mining.

The practitioner tells us that MANCHESTER CITY at home to WIGAN (demo is a few years old!) is a good solid bet for a home, proceeding to tell us that this is a demonstration of what can be achieved by this service.

So let us say that we are particularly dense and need a database to tell us that the most probable result is indeed a home win,

It would be a ludicrous judgement that nobody else also thought this (the software we really want is the one that threw up Wigan to beat City in the cup final!!),

The only difference being is that we have PAID a subscription to find out something that is not news.

The crazy thing about the demonstration was the fact that as I previously mentioned, the software looks fairly good and looks like having a range that could provide an edge, the demonstration fails to demonstrate this edge at all. 

IM FANTASTIC.

Pace handicapping has revolutionised the way we now examine horse races, with everybody seemingly banging on about where the pace is in a race.

A large part of this and indeed speed handicapping is down to an influx of American handicappers releasing books.

These books were subsequently read by English handicappers and the cap then being doffed in English books boosting the sales and therefore the influence of American methods.

The latest string in the bow to punters that is available at a reasonable price is sectional times 

This can be purchased and added to a variety of the computer form books, for the record I think sectional times are a brilliant tool and while I may in the past been underwhelmed by Timeform, when it comes to things like this they are peerless, both in quality and the thorough nature of what they produce.

Imagine then my surprise on inspecting an article from that very company's website, giving the lowdown on sectionals, which impressed me greatly until I came to the example of sectionals, here I was expecting some coups, some real contenders flying under the radar. I got GOLDEN HORN !

While it is true, the maiden run did show up a very positive finishing pull, supplementation for the Derby harpooned that and the horse is quality but anybody can tell us that, surely sectionals are a tool to peel the onion, selections like GOLDEN HORN can be arrived at by reading the racing section in the Sun.

This struck me as a very odd way to maximise on sectionals and while granted they weren't trying to SELL me directly, you would imagine that every article like that is a marketing tool of sorts.

STRIKE THIRTY-THREE, YOUR OUT.

The answer as to why two services that appear to be of a high standard have made such fundamentally flawed marketing pitches is relatively easy to understand, given the nature of man.

We have a need to succeed, when we pay for something, we don't like hearing the words MAY, we want results GODDAMIT !!

We are in an age where money = success = intelligence, but this sum is radically wrong 

Few would argue that Joey Essex is intelligent, fewer would argue he is poor, but he is seen in isolation as being disproportionately wealthy.

In reality, a lot of wealthy people have created the impression of collective intelligence.

Traders for example blinded by their delusion and ignorance see their wealth as a reward for being intelligent; 

You've got to be intelligent to be rich right? 

The average trader is no better than a dummy and you could get as impressive a return by flipping a coin to decide what to invest in.

In 2008 after they proved their collective unintelligence by bankrupting the western world, they were once again rewarded financially while people were jumping up and down calling them criminals.

In truth some should have gone to prison, the worrying thing about the financial crisis isn't that they were criminals, they were not smart enough to be criminals, they were simply morons.

Joey Essex doesn't seem quite so disproportionately wealthy when you look at things this way.

Read this statement-

FAVOURITES WIN ROUGHLY 33% OF RACES RUN.

Now read this one-

FAVOURITES FAIL TO WIN ROUGHLY 7 OUT OF EVERY 10 RACES RUN.

The same information written two different ways, but clearly from a marketing point of view you can see why the 33% strike rate gets thrown around like the prison bitch.

I know that sectional times are a tool and a powerful one at that, but they go into the hat under ST, alongside BF C D 11 F UR and all the other tools, 

The real puzzle lies in how much relevance you apply to each of those little numbers and letters on a race card, to beat that puzzle you also need to know how much relevance everybody else attaches to them as well.

So let me ask you,

Would you like a Grand?

Are Manchester City any good at home?

Is Golden Horn a horse that runs quickly?

Thought so, aren't we clever!