With 30+ years in racing and betting, Darren helps punters develop their skills. As OLBG’s Tipster boss and expert guide, he turns insight into winning strategy.
Let me start by saying that the aim of this blog is not to reinvent the wheel but merely to put into perspective an often overlooked principle.
The goal of every punter is or should be long-term sustainable profits.
Yes, jackpots are exciting but nonetheless extremely rare and although they regularly make the news, what doesn't is all the money spent on long-winded and unlikely ACCAs.
This is not to say that such ACCAs should be completely disregarded however in my view they should not make up the lion's share of one's betting portfolio. That's a discussion for another day though.
With the above in mind for the purpose of this blog, I shall assume that over a period of time the average punter places numerous bets across numerous markets.
I have spoken to various punters and noted that the majority (i) use one bookmaker and (ii) switched bookmakers over a period of time however very few stated that they use multiple bookmakers simultaneously.
Our betting school article on understanding how bookmakers work will give you plenty of insight.
The Spread
The spread is the difference between the two given odds.
Such spread may be insignificant to the naked eye but a closer look should spark interest.
Let's take the upcoming Premier League matches and assume that a punter is using BetVictor.
I shall limit my analysis to the main bookmakers.
The Analysis
BetVictor is extremely competitive in this space and has the best price for 57% of the outcomes.
Over the 30 possible outcomes, there is a total spread of 1.5% which is inconsequential.
The spread increases to 3.9% on the favorites.
Let's assume a punter stakes 10 units on all favorites across the season and that he achieves a 50% hit rate, hitting the worse two odds, the best two odds, and the mid odds.
BetVictor would yield a small loss of 0.76 units (-0.2%) whilst Best Odds would yield a gain of 5.32 units (+1.4%).
Still, the argument is difficult to defend as the amounts are only significant in real terms at very high stakes and because the above workings assume stable odds and stable hit rates.
What comes next though is truly inspiring.
Let's extend our analysis to the BTTS market.
BetVictor has the best odds on ALL ‘No' outcomes but is NEVER the best price for a ‘Yes' outcome.
The average spread on the ‘Yes' outcome was an impressive 8.6% ranging between 6.9% and 12.5%.
The average odds for BetVictor are 1.83, the average odds for Best Odds are close to evens.
In simple terms, one would break even at 50% hit rate with Best Odds whilst making a loss of 8.4% with BetVictor.
That, my friends, is significant!!!
Conclusions
Considering that such a decision is based on hard facts, that is, available odds,
I seriously suggest looking into extending the number of bookmakers used.
Nowadays deposits and withdrawals are facilitated by payment gateways and wallets such as Paypal and Skrill.
You may find them slightly more burdensome in terms of administration but a simple bookmakers spreadsheet will be enough to keep a tab of your results and available funds.
Good luck and be smart!!!
