Football Spread Betting | Premier League Spreads

Updated: 748 Other

Spread Betting on football is growing as more statistical information becomes available. This allows us to make better betting decisions. We looked at the Premier League Spreads at the midpoint of the season.

Football Spread Betting | Premier League Spreads
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

EPL Spread Betting

We took a look at the Sporting Index Premier League Point Spread Market at the halfway stage of the season. 

  • Teams have played between 16 and 18 games. 
  • This Sporting Index Outright market predicts how many points each EPL team will win come the end of the season. 
  • If you think their points total will be HIGHER you BUY. 
  • If you think their points total will be LOWER you SELL.
  • All EPL teams are quoted.

EPL Spread Betting Points Table

  • Here are the current spread betting prices.
  • These can/will change after each match. 
  • A good run of form with easier games on the horizon will increase the spread.
  • A bad run of form with games against the top six on the horizon will decrease the spread. 
  • So from the table below do you think they will get more or less than those points totals?
Team  Current Points Total/ Games Played Sell Buy Current Points Total/Games Played Sell  Buy Final Points Total
Manchester City 32/16 82 83.5 50/22 86.5 87.5 86
Liverpool 33/17 76.5 78 40/23 71.5 72.5 69
Manchester United 36/17 73.5 75 45/23 71.5 72.5 74
Tottenham 30/17 65.5 67 36/22 61 62 62
Chelsea 26/17 65 66.5 39/22 67 68 67
Leicester 32/17 62.5 64 43/23 66 67 66
Everton 32/17 60 61.5 37/21 59.5 60.5 59
Aston Villa 26/15 56.5 58 35/21 58.5 59.5 55
Southampton 29/17 56 57.5 29/22 48.5 49.5 43
Arsenal 23/17 56 57.5 31/23 55 56 61
West Ham 26/17 53 54.5 39/23 59.5 60.5 65
Leeds 23/17 49.5 51 32/22 51.5 52.5 59
Wolverhampton Wanderers 22/18 49 50.5 27/23 45.5 46.5 45
Crystal Palace 22/17 42 43.5 29/23 43 44 44
Burnley 16/15 38 39.5 23/22 38.5 39.5 39
Brighton 14/18 37 38.5 25/23 43.5 44.5 41
Newcastle 19/17 36 37.5 25/23 37.5 38.5 45
Fulham 12/16 33.5 35 15/22 30 31 28
West Bromwich Albion 8/17 26 27.5 12/23 23 24 26
Sheffield United 5/18 22.5 24 12/23 25 26 23


11/03/2021 - Liverpool Slump

Liverpool after some terrible results are only predicted to get around 63 points and finish around 8th place.

End Of Season Update:

The 4 teams who outperformed both their 16/17 game and 22/23 game points totals are in bold in the final column. 

Arsenal, Leeds, Newcastle, West Ham gave those who backed them between 5 and 8 points profit from their 16/17 and 22/23 game totals. 

Star Buy: Leeds and Newcastle

Fulham, Liverpool, and Southampton ended up with the biggest deficits from the first part of the season, had you sold those teams you would have made money. 

Southampton had a buy price of 57.5 after 16 games, after 22 games it had decreased to 49.5, in the end, they only won 43 points. 

Star Sell: Southampton


Update: The first three columns were written after 16/17 games, we then updated after 22/23 games in the last 4 columns.

You can see which teams have improved their points position over the course of the season

The Plus and Minus column shows which teams now have a higher and lower predicted points total than they did after 16/17 games. 

The teams in bold with a plus figure have a higher predicted points total, you would have been better off had you bought those teams.

The teams in normal text with minus figures have lower predicted points and you would have been better selling those teams. 

For example, if you had bought Brighton at 38.5 after 18 games then you would be in a position to take your profits after 23 games as Brighton could now be sold at 43.5. 

However, had you bought Liverpool at 78.0 after 17 games hoping they would still win the EPL and go on a winning run then you would be sitting on a loss, as their sell price is now 71.5. 

You would have been better off selling Liverpool at 76.5 as their points prediction has reduced. 

These long-term markets can be lucrative if you think a team is going to do better/worse than the spread. 

Any comments please post below. 


OLBG Member Prediction

OLBG member Davidg3907 as many of you know is a statistics guru. 

He diarises the Betfair EPL Relegation market on the forum.  

He backs and lays teams each week always looking to create winning positions in the outright relegation market. 

Part of this backing and laying includes a prediction for every game of an EPL season. 

At the commencement of the season, 3 pts are available for each of the 380 matches, that is a total of 1140 points.

However, this reduces by one for every draw, as only 1 point is awarded to each side. 

EPL Champions 2020/21

The figures say Manchester City will win the EPL this season.

So far there have been 41 draws from the 169 games played, this would mean 92.2 if the average continues over the season. 

The Sporting Index mid-points total is 1047, suggesting 93 draws.

My predictions expect this to be fractionally on the low side, the tissues suggest 97 draws. 

Although now anticipating that Manchester City will win the title, many of the top teams do not appear to be firing on all cylinders currently, the race may be tighter than books currently indicate. 

This may mean City falling short of the target, but it is unlikely to be by much, so the danger is them beating the target by too great a margin and a bailout being required. 

Lower down the table, there may be value in teams that may do better in the second half of the season and therefore beat their total.

Such teams include Wolves, Newcastle, and Sheffield United.

His take (as of the end of December 2020) on the total points each team will achieve is posted below, although he would be constantly reviewing these predictions as results come in. 

Team  Points Total
Manchester City
77.95
Liverpool 75.22
Man Utd 74.01
Tottenham 65.62
Chelsea 64.24
Leicester  61.87
Everton 59.13
Arsenal 57.40
Aston Villa 56.54
Southampton 54.92
West Ham 52.56
Wolves 50.90
Leeds 48.49
Crystal Palace 42.07
Burnley 39.07
Newcastle 38.55
Brighton 38.10
Fulham 34.61
West Bromwich Albion 27.23
Sheffield United 24.59


Buying And Selling Spread Markets

You should buy or sell the spread to an amount you are comfortable, with and always consider the worst-case scenario.

You buy or sell per point.

So a buy of £1 per point on Manchester City at 83.5 will win you if they get 90 points £1 x 6.5 (the difference between 83.5 points and 90 points) =£6.50

However, if they only got 80 points you would lose 3.5 points x £1 (the difference between 83.5 points and 80 points) = -£3.50. 

If you sold Manchester City at 82 and they got 90 points you would lose 8 points x £1 (the difference between 82 points and 90 points) = -£8

However, if they only got 80 points you would win 2 points x £1 (the difference between 82 points and 80 points) = £2

Betting

Opening and Closing Positions

When you have bought or sold you have the option to close your position at any time.

Let us say Manchester City suffer a string of injuries and have no strikers to call upon

Having bought them you may feel that it is time to close the bet especially as their next games are say Liverpool and Manchester United.

OR

Manchester United have just signed  Messi and Mbappe and are looking stronger than at the midpoint of the season, should you top up your Manchester United bet at the new price?

The spreads are constantly changing as results come in, you need to always monitor where your bet is.  

Spread Betting Outright Markets

These long term outright markets are available on a variety of leagues and will be on offer for every World Cup and European Football Championship. 

Most sports that the Spread betting firms quote have these long term outright markets.

You can and compare these Spread Betting Firms using our Best Spread Betting Companies Article.

In Golf, you can Spread Bet on the Majors.

In the NFL you can spread bet on the Super Bowl and Playoffs. 

In Snooker you can Spread Bet on the World Championships/Masters

In Rugby, you can Spread Bet on the Six Nations/Gallagher Premiership Points Totals.

Spread Betting Risk and Reward

With Spread betting the more right you are the more you can win, the more wrong you are the more you can lose.

If you know a particular sport and think that the outright spread is generous from a buying or selling point of view then this can be a way of profiting.

You can profit to a larger amount than you would with traditional betting.

Of course with the upside being generous than the downside is riskier, and you can quickly be in a losing position.

You always need to monitor at what stage your bet is situated. 

Please ensure you understand the risks with sports spread betting as it involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. 

If you wish to Buy or Sell Totals at Euro 2020 please visit the Euro 2020 Spread Betting Blog.

If you are new to spread betting please check out the comprehensive betting school guide


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