Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
F1 Betting Markets
With the leading drivers having incredible cars at their disposal and looking solid as a rock, finding any value selections in F1 is mainly left to the chance of having some of the smaller teams make it to the one remaining spot at the podium or hope that one of the complete outsiders somehow manages to make the podium. I realized that if we can get creative enough by researching alternative bets, we can at least try to make some cash.
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The Dual Forecast Market
I rarely looked at this market before this season.
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In a more balanced Formula 1 year, it is never that useful because you have to select not one but two "winners" (top 2), which makes it a bit more complicated. Even the best drivers could have an off day, no matter how good or talented their cars are.
For many years, the market was narrowed down to finding a suitable partner for the favourite who placed in the top two in 14 out of 19 races, making it easier to navigate.
However, this season, for us to find any value there, we must rely on what was a black hole before, namely, one of the favourites not making it.
If we are to assume that over the course of 19 races, the two dominant cars will eventually have slip-ups, the more—the better; we are getting a window of opportunity for finding a suitable partner for either the 1st or 2nd favourite and securing odds in the region of 25/1 at the very least on that dual forecast market.
Of course, for this to work, we must carefully consider each track's specifics.
We must also do our homework on the chances of the other teams to challenge and apply that to the individual races, as some cars are normally better suited for one track than another.
Lastly, we must monitor every driver's ability outside the favourites on specific tracks by carefully analyzing their previous performances, no matter what team they were on.
The Dual Forecast Plan
Just to put the previous information into numbers, I will take all the upcoming Grand Prix, where any dual forecast outside of Fav/2nd Fav is worth taking, not to say that all are worth taking together, and profit is guaranteed provided one of those favourites does not finish or end up outside the top 2.
If we take the third, fourth, and fifth favourites and combine any of them with any of the two favourites, we offer ten times more value than simply relying on the Favorite/Second Favorite.
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The idea behind this is that bookies will be dead certain the favs will dominate the season from start to finish, but even in his most dominant moments from the last few years, there have been plenty of slip-ups.
Placing 10 pounds on the dual forecast for these six pairs, we still have the potential to double the investment. At the very least, provided both favourites do not make it.
The only challenge remains to figure out the best possible moment (race) for the best possible combination (if we are not to risk too many pairs).
Here is an example from a few years back involving favourite Hamilton and second favourite Rosberg.
10 Pounds on Hamilton/Vettel @ 13.00 = 130 Pounds
10 Pounds on Rosberg/Vettel @ 23.00 = 230 Pounds
10 Pounds on Hamilton/Raikkonen @ 29.00 = 290 Pounds
10 Pounds on Hamilton/Massa @ 29.00 = 290 Pounds
10 Pounds on Rosberg/Massa @ 67.00 = 670 Pounds
10 Pounds on Rosberg/Raikkonen @ 67.00 = 670 Pounds
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Total stake: 60 Pounds
Minimal profit (on condition): 60 Pounds
Planning and Value
To limit the potential for blindly throwing money in the garbage to find some value, we must ensure this is implemented at the right moment or the moment when either Fav or 2nd Fav is most likely to have a bad day.
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Of course, there is potential that both will have a bad day at the same time, but let's not get that deep.
The bookies think the favs are classes above everyone else in terms of car capabilities, and that is just way too unlikely.
One of the conditions is to find the most demanding tracks.
And then look closely at previous records.
Our research could start by identifying the track and then determining which of the two favourites is more likely to encounter problems.
This observation immediately catches a person's attention and allows him to consider actually laying the bigger favourite on a track that is not one of his favourites.
- Finding the track
- Singling out the more likely favourite to struggle
- Singling out the most likely outsider to deliver
- Getting the decent dual forecast odds
If we are to expect that bookies will stick to their guns (why wouldn't they) and offer something in the region of 13.00 for any dual outside the favourites.
We could then either put all our eggs in one basket by relying on the research and logic to deliver on occasion, just do the spread I looked at earlier or maybe cut it in half with the favourite we consider more likely to be in the top two.
In both cases, the value is there, and while the risk, of course, is not that small, it is much more worth taking than going for the short-priced favourites week after week, staking big and getting burnt big when one of them fails to finish or make the podium.
Conclusion
If you have in-depth knowledge of Formula 1 but need help using it wisely from a betting perspective, then the Dual Forecast, away from the favourites, may offer some real value.
After all, thanks to OLBG, and their 000's of top tipsters I have grown ever more analytical and excited by the quest for finding better value than backing the short-price favourites.
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When the mind starts ticking, we can all devise a motorsport strategy like this.
