Euro 2020 Expected Goals (xG) Statistics - Groups A-F

Expected Goals Euro 2020 Guide

We took a look at the Euro 2020 Championship to see if we could find any early betting value based on xG statistics during the qualification stages. 

xG is a measure of chances created and chances allowed in individual games.

It ranks the quality of chances therefore a shot inside the 6-yard box has a higher xG figure than a 35-yard speculative attempt.

If you see a chance with a 0.30 rating that means the player would have been expected to score 30% of the time.

A rating of 0.50 means the chance would be expected to be scored 50% of the time.

All these chances are then accumulated to give an end-of-match xG figure. 

You often see the xG figures posted and or quoted on MOTD, Sky Sports, BT to show how a game panned out in relation to the actual result.

You can see that based on the quality of chances the team with the best xG does not always win the game.

Spain and the Czech Republic created better chances to win the game but did not, however, the number and quality of chances created can alert you to how they might perform in future games. 

Bookmakers

Now the bookmakers have these xG figures as well and take them into account when pricing up individual matches.

As a strategy, we need to check where they have been too generous with their odds.

xG is only a guide and will not account for a team with lots of injuries, or a team that has replaced their manager, or been thrashed in the latest friendlies, or have rested key players.

There are a myriad of circumstances where previous xG figures will point you in the wrong direction, extra form study is always needed. 

However, Xg can be a good starting point or as a double check on other football statistics.