Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
Which are the most profitable EFL Championship to bet on?
Although backing your team every week is rather commendable, that fandom can come at a price. A price that is not found within ticket and travel costs but also the outlay of betting stakes across the season.
Even though fans believe their team will win always come out on top, even the very best have a habit of throwing away points from time to time and this can mean, it is the betting sites that win instead.
2024/25 EFL Championship Season: Testing the Blind Faith System ⚽️💰
While backing your team each week is also fertile ground for some deep analysis. Analysis that comes courtesy of the 2024/25 EFL Championship season. With us taking a retrospective look at the results, we are also going to see if blind faith is a system that can lead to end-of-season profitability.
£1 goes on each team to win their Championship fixture, of which they are 552 in total.
| Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 46 | 58.18 | 12.18 | 26.48% |
| Sheffield United | 46 | 57.52 | 11.52 | 25.04% |
| Blackburn | 46 | 54.61 | 8.61 | 18.72% |
| Millwall | 46 | 49.86 | 3.86 | 8.39% |
| Portsmouth | 46 | 47.68 | 1.68 | 3.65% |
| Plymouth | 46 | 46.28 | 0.28 | 0.61% |
| Sunderland | 46 | 45.95 | -0.05 | -0.11% |
| Swansea | 46 | 45.18 | -0.82 | -1.78% |
| Watford | 46 | 44.43 | -1.57 | -3.41% |
| Coventry | 46 | 44.24 | -1.76 | -3.83% |
| Leeds | 46 | 42.84 | -3.16 | -6.87% |
| Oxford | 46 | 42.68 | -3.32 | -7.22% |
| QPR | 46 | 42.18 | -3.82 | -8.30% |
| Sheffield Weds | 46 | 39.61 | -6.39 | -13.89% |
| Bristol City | 46 | 39.05 | -6.95 | -15.11% |
| Derby | 46 | 38.15 | -7.85 | -17.07% |
| Hull | 46 | 37.27 | -8.73 | -18.98% |
| Middlesbrough | 46 | 33.84 | -12.16 | -26.43% |
| Stoke | 46 | 31.8 | -14.2 | -30.87% |
| Norwich | 46 | 31.51 | -14.49 | -31.50% |
| West Brom | 46 | 31.39 | -14.61 | -31.76% |
| Luton | 46 | 31.03 | -14.97 | -32.54% |
| Preston | 46 | 29.85 | -16.15 | -35.11% |
| Cardiff | 46 | 24.82 | -21.18 | -46.04% |
They say the Championship can be something of a money pit. With club chairman prepared to spend countless millions in a bid to get the promised land of the Premier League, money itself becomes less of an issue.
If you can earn promotion at the end of the season, that expenditure is worth every penny and there will be further riches that follow. However, only three clubs can climb the ladder each year and for those who fail to do so, that same expenditure can prove rather costly.
However, Burnley's gamble more than paid off and not only did tjhey earn promotion to the promised land but they were also the most profitable club of the 24 on the list.
Last Season’s Burnley Backing: Calculating Profit and ROI 💷⚽️
If you were to stake £46 across the course of last season, backing Burnley throughout would have returned £58.18 in total. Not only is that £12.18 in profit but a 26.48% return on your investment.
The Lancashire outfit also bucking the logic that comes with a mid-table team or surprise act being top when it comes to profitability - the reasoning is because of plenty of shock results by a lesser outfit in the division.
However, manager Scott Parker did things differently and the way they generated their profit was not only winning the majority of their league games but also winning when it really mattered. Those games were the odds were nip and tuck landed in their further.
Burnley top of the shop when it comes to overall profitability, what about the two other teams that would earn promotion to the Premier League?
League champions Leeds found themselves as the 11th most profitable club in the division. A spend of £46 would not result in any end of season profit as only £42.84 was returned by the Elland Road outfit, meaning a loss of £3.16 over the 46-game stretch
As for fellow promoted outfit Sunderland, they almost had another reason to celebrate as not only did they gain promotion via the playoffs but they almost turned a profit in the regular season.
The Black Cats seemingly had luck on their side at Wembley and they almost had the same luck when it came to profitabilty.
Regis Le Bris' men collected £45.95 worth of winnings after an outlay of £46 - just 5p short of being break even.
Then again, we cannot overlook the team who missed out on promotion on not one but two occasions and not only did Sheffield United miss out automatically but they also missed out at Wembley.
The team that was led by Chris Wilder faced double agony to the point where being the second most profitable team in the division does little to soften the blow.
However, if you did back the Blades in each of their 46 league games, £46 would have been turned into £57.52 - a ROI of 25.04%.
Last Season's EFL Championship Strategy: Profits and Surprises 🏆💷
Of the 24 teams that contested last season’s EFL Championship, six would have generated a profit using our methodology - meaning that 18 teams would have also put you in the red over the course of 46 matches.
Plymouth squeezed into the profitable section with a return of £46.28 over the course of the season - profit of just 28p for the team that is now preparing for life in League One.
While special mention should also go to Blackburn. The Ewood Park outfit started the season well but soon lost pace with those who would eventually be celebrating but Valerien Ismael's men do also have something to celebrate.
Celebrations that come in the form of £8.61 profit to return an overall total of £54.61 at the end of the season.
The kind of return that shows with any team being capable of beating any other, the ability to generate end-of-season profits is perhaps more manageable than in the Premier League or La Liga, where the odds offer far less in the way of pre-match value.
AT THE BOTTOM
If you are a Cardiff fan you may want to look away now. Not only did the South Wales outfit succumb to relegation at the end of the season but they also managed to generate a negative return of investment of 46.04%.
Known as one of the Championship's mainstays over the past decade or so, the Bluebirds had a season to forget and so would anyone who backed them in each of their 46 competitive skirmishes. An outlay of £46 would only return £24.82 at the end of the campaign - a loss of £21.18.
Cardiff's Woeful Run: Relegation and Negative Returns ⚽️💔
They would also be joined by Luton when it came to the combination of relegation and a lack of profitability. The Hatters have now suffered two relegations in two seasons. Across the 2024/25 Championship campaign they only returned £31.03 and this loss of £14.97 equates to a -32.54% ROI.
Two relegated sides in the bottom three of overall loss and it is Preston who find themselves sandwiched between the pair.
The Deepdale outfit only just avoided relegation to League One themselves after finishing 20th in the final Championship table.
Due to their poor run of results in the New Year, the £46 spent on their activities would only return £29.85. A loss of £16.15 over the season and a negative ROI of 35.11%
TIME TO COMPARE
| Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 0.61% | 6 | 23 | -17 |
| Portsmouth | 3.65% | 5 | 16 | -11 |
| Watford | -3.41% | 9 | 14 | -5 |
| Oxford | -7.22% | 12 | 17 | -5 |
| Blackburn | 18.72% | 3 | 7 | -4 |
| Millwall | 8.39% | 4 | 8 | -4 |
| Hull | -18.98% | 17 | 21 | -4 |
| Swansea | -1.78% | 8 | 11 | -3 |
| Derby | -17.07% | 16 | 19 | -3 |
| QPR | -8.30% | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Burnley | 26.48% | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Sheffield United | 25.04% | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Luton | -32.54% | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| Cardiff | -46.04% | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Stoke | -30.87% | 19 | 18 | 1 |
| Sheffield Weds | -13.89% | 14 | 12 | 2 |
| Sunderland | -0.11% | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Preston | -35.11% | 23 | 20 | 3 |
| Coventry | -3.83% | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Norwich | -31.50% | 20 | 13 | 7 |
| Middlesbrough | -26.43% | 18 | 10 | 8 |
| Bristol City | -15.11% | 15 | 6 | 9 |
| Leeds | -6.87% | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| West Brom | -31.76% | 21 | 9 | 12 |
Another way to measure the performance of the 24 teams is to measure their rank in terms of profit and compare it next to their final position in the 2023/24 Championship table and it does not make for good reading for Leeds.
Top of the table in real life but 11th when it comes to overall profitability. The Elland Road outfit had a ranking difference of 10 places when comparing the latter to the former but it is the ranking in the league which is far more important than any betting system.
While the biggest disparity between the two metrics can be found at The Hawthorns as West Brom have a disparity of 12 positions.
The West Midlands team finished ninth in the table and when compared to being the fourth-least profitable team in the division, you can see the largest disparity in the Championship.
West Brom and Leeds at the foot of this particualr table, Bristol City also getting caught out when it comes to comparitives.
The Ashton Gate outfit finished in the playoff paying positions after registering sixth in the final table, when compared to sitting 15th in the profit table, this meant they were nine places worse off.
One less than Middlesbrough who themselves missed out on the playoffs and as a consequence, would go on to sack Michael Carrick as manager.
The Riverside Stadium outfit only finished 10th in the Championship table, their profitability ranking of 18th does not shine them in a good light either.
West Brom finishing wide of the mark ⚽💰
At the other end of the table, Plymouth did manage to find one positive from the negative that comes with relegation.
The Home Park outfit may have finished second bottom in the final Championship order but they did manage to be the sixth most profitable club (while also turning a profit) a difference of 17 places between the two metrics.
At the same time, Portsmouth must also get an honourable mention for their efforts across the campaign.
The Fratton Park outfit had a comfortable season while avoiding the stress of a relegation battle and they did so by finishing 16th in the table.
To go alongside that, they also recorded a 3.65% profit across the season. Not only making them the fifth most profitable club in the division but also a positive difference of 11 places between the two metrics.
Methodology
Staking for returns, profit and loss were set thus:
£1 stakes
£1 goes on each team to win their Championship fixture, of which they are 552 in total.
If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up.
If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded.
With each team playing 46 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.
Editorial Information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
