Formula 1 Betting
I was recently asked on Twitter what logic I put into my F1 selections, I certainly couldn't answer in the 100 odd characters that you get on Twitter.
Therefore I thought I would put together a little overview of what I think about when looking at an F1 Race.
After reading my F1 thoughts please check out the betting school article - Motor Racing Betting Advice.
There are two bits of form I think are critical and they are Track Form which I think is massively important.
Different drivers suit different tracks and style, we can see current drivers almost specialize at certain tracks.
The second type of form is Seasonal Form.
Track and Seasonal Form
Has the driver performed well at the track in previous races? Is the driver and team in good form?
The driver can just as quickly get stuck in a rut as well as get on a run
We currently see drivers starting good runs.
However, one win and that could all change so always check how they have done in recent races
This is something I don't spend masses of time on but I do take it into consideration.
I would always look to those with the best top speeds when there are lots of long high-speed straights such as Spa and Monza,
I also consider at the same time what issues a more technical track will have.
I tend to look at the sectors in FP1 and FP2 and identify those cars quickest in those sectors because there are not enough straights to lose much time but plenty of technical corners to make up time.
Tyres & Track Temperatures
Different cars prefer different compounds.
Its quite simple to look at races where a particular compound has been used, and which cars have won, and then if it matches those put forward get it in your mind,
But I ask you to show some caution, track temperature can quickly affect the performance of the tyre.
In past seasons Mercedes seemed to be able to cope with a variety of temperatures whereas Ferrari seems to have smaller operating windows.
Always always always look at the weather before you bet.
Has the driver already driven well in today's conditions?
The rain is a great leveller.
With a wet track, the cars with the best top speed are hindered because they seldom get to that speed.
Also, you have to look at those who have won wet races earlier in the season. It tends to suggest they understand their car better.
You will also see a couple of other things, teams, and drivers that make fewer mistakes.
These cars are designed to go fast and go fast in the dry. The way it has been described is when you walk across a frozen puddle or lake.
The other thing you will need to be cautious of is incorrect pit calls.
We see the team on the pit walls having to make split-second decisions.
When to change tyre compound is key.
One lap too late they are either gliding around the track with no grip having not come in for wets, or they come in too early and shred their intermediates and have to pit again in 5-6 laps.
Team Line ups
Something that only occurred to me recently but I just wanted to get you thinking about those driving for their futures,
We see one of two things they are either blindingly brilliant or trying to hard and make mistakes.
Its a bit like football, when a player's contract is expiring and they are playing for their new contact.
Lastly for me its poxy grid penalties.
I hate them, we are seeing instances where teams are getting 105 place grid penalties?
These penalties are a fact of life and can turn a value bet into a no-hoper.
Really? what is the point?
But it is something you need to be aware of, they can occur between qualifying and the race, and what seemed like a decent bet suddenly looks like a stinker.
Furthermore, if they cannot actually go back to the allotted number of places, they will get time penalties which further puts them back.
Many different types of ways that the teams tend to work, some for example, tend to build up to qualifying and get race pace sorted first
So there is sometimes value in backing a team on a track with high speed and good engines early before their pace becomes apparent.
Most other teams look at raw pace first then race pace adaption.
I tend to wait until the end of FP2 (at a minimum) and FP3 if there has been changeable weather.
Many teams won't do much if the current practice conditions don't match what is expected in the race so we often see a jumbled field in this sort of situation.
I hope the above is useful to you, and welcome any feedback or questions that you have.
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