Creating a Value Betting System for English Football

This article explains how I have used some widely available football ratings to devise a betting system for value betting on English Football

I have long been an advocate of the thinking that there is little value in betting on English football.

This is because there is a wealth of knowledge now at punters disposal, and the relative odds that are now supplied by the compilers and the layers on the betting exchanges do not offer value. 

However, my thought process may have just changed, with my creation of this value betting system. 

What I have done in this exercise is to look at some freely available ratings, compare them, add my own weighting, and come up with a unique betting system.

This then looks for the best odds available that are more generous than the rating odds, these are then highlighted as a mathematical value price.  

I forewarn that I have not backtested this newly created system at all, I don't know if it will prove profitable, 

I want to hit the ground running with fresh data, so as yet, there is no proof that I have found anything of any worth.

Ratings Choice

After reviewing a good number of rating systems, I have been left with two which I consider quite reliable.

• Racing and Football Outlook True Chance Ratings.
• Fink Tank System Ratings from the Times. 

I have used both sets of ratings to come up with what [for the system] should be the price for the 1x2 outcomes, compared that with the best odds for each outcome available through an odds comparison website. 

I then determined the value by using my own calculations from within. 

I am looking for some agreement in the two rating services,  AND a clear point of difference between the perceived probability and the prices available, and then some smoothing of all the numbers to leave a clear value pick 

I shan't go into detail of the mathematics involved other than to explain its complicated!

Collating the ratings and odds

1.  Firstly I take the Fink Tank percentage probability of the outcomes, I convert these percentages into odds.
2. This is done simply by taking a figure of 100 and dividing it by the probability percentage figure. e.g  for HullCity 100/24%= a price  of 4.17 in decimal terms
3. I then take the RFO True Odds section and note the odds from there
4. For the same event, I look at the RFO true odds and note they give odds of 3.7

The best odds available are 4.60 offering value against both the Fink Tank perceived odds of 4.17 and the RFO figure of 3.70. 

At this point in the process, I now have a prediction for every game and a strength rating, I now compare all the odds to the probability ratings.

At this point in the process, I now have a prediction for every game and a strength rating, I now compare all the odds.

Contradictory Ratings

Not all the ratings from Fink Tank and RFO agree. Indeed I would suggest the RFO ratings are a little more conservative than Fink Tank in most cases.

Final Selection Process

Because the contradictory selections happen quite frequently, to find occasions when they do agree to an extent to satisfy the criteria of 0.75 of a point and/or 20% better value on the physical prices.

I have added a new section to take the overall ratings averaged and compared again to the best prices, to select only the games were the two ratings figures are in agreement and still exceed the qualifying criteria.

Ignoring the 0-5 ratings and going back to the price and percentage differences and applying a filter for a price that is at least 0.75 of a point too high and/or 20% too high I have the final selections

We can see from this that the selections for the Premier League for this weekend are as follows [using the occasions when both green and red highlight appear.

• Fulham v Manchester City HOME WIN @ 10.00

Both the Fink Tank and RFO consider the real price of Fulham's chance of winning this weekend at home to Manchester City as being 4.65 and 5.00 respectively, we can get 10.00 (9/1) with BetVictor. 

It is a value price as dictated by the system

• Liverpool v Cardiff AWAY WIN @ 18.00

This is where things can get a bit messy. It is more than probable that Liverpool, on top form with Luis Suarez firing on all cylinders and fresh from a huge thrashing of Spus on their own turf last week will win this game. 

Along with Cardiff in some upstairs turmoil, thoughts of the Welsh side coming away from Anfield with anything but a hiding almost unthinkable but when looking just at the numbers BetVictor offering a huge 18.00 on Cardiffs chances on three points. 

This has to be considered value against the rating predictions.

 Fink Tank say their true price should be 9.26 and RFO go even bigger with more than 14.00 but a price of 17/1 supersedes both and offers value in the eyes of the system

• CHAMPIONSHIP - Derby v Doncaster AWAY WIN @ 9.50

This is the only other game in the weekend's fixtures that gets the full qualifications criteria, with Doncaster perceived as a value bet at 9.50 against predicted true odds of around 7.00.