Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
Home Team Favourites
I have set out the English Football data in three tables.
In the first two, the data records how they fare at home in comparison to away, split by division.
The third table shows what percentage of matches have a home favourite winning, drawing, or losing, again split by divison.
Football Favourites
The favourites win less than 50% of all English football matches.
In addition, each table has an overall figure.
All tables cover the 7 seasons from 2013/14 to 2019/20 inclusive.
They only show percentages and do not relate to betting odds.
This means that an away team when the home team is favourite could be value at odds of 9/1 OR a home team could be value when the away team is favourite at odds of 6/1.
Close Calls?
Teams in the lower divisions are better matched than they are in the EPL.
The notable trends show that a much greater percentage of favourites win (both home and away) in the EPL.
This is perhaps not surprising in as much as there are a few teams in the EPL that continue to record high win figures due to their undoubted superiority.
The other divisions present a more level standard in general.
If confirmation was required, the profit shown by backing all odds-on HOME favourites in the EPL will supply just that.
There is little difference between the percentage of Home and Away favourites winning in the EPL.
Avoiding The Draw?
There are fewer drawn games in the EPL than any other English League.
As the odds-on Away favourites lose money, at some point I shall need to check on the viability of backing those at odds-against.
The frequency of home favourites in the EPL has dropped from 70% to 68% but I do not have such data in the other divisions.
The last two seasons, dominated primarily by Liverpool and Manchester City, have produced the most away favourites in the thirteen years of my records.
Taking on favourites whether home or away is slightly more advisable than it is in the EPL.
The third table displays results split by the six possible outcomes.
There are fewer draws in the EPL than the other divisions.
While 17% of all EPL matches see the underdog win, this figure is only about 13% in the other divisions.
When The Home Team Is The Favourite
| RESULT | EPL | CHAMPIONSHIP | LEAGUE 1 | LEAGUE 2 | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOME WIN | 55.73% | 48.40% | 48.55% | 46.59% | 49.74% |
| DRAW | 24.21% | 28.11% | 27.01% | 26.95% | 26.65% |
| AWAY WIN | 19.88% | 23.49% | 23.49% | 26.46% | 23.62% |
When The Away Team Is The Favourite
| RESULT | EPL | CHAMPIONSHIP | LEAGUE 1 | LEAGUE 2 | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY WIN | 53.59% | 45.11% | 44.29% | 43.36% | 46.80% |
| DRAW | 21.44% | 27.07% | 25.57% | 27.89% | 25.35% |
| HOME WIN | 24.97% | 27.83% | 30.14% | 28.75% | 27.85% |
Results Of The Match
| RESULT | EPL | CHAMPIONSHIP | LEAGUE 1 | LEAGUE 2 | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Favourite Win | 37.93% | 35.21% | 34.23% | 33.50% | 35.22 |
| Home Favourite Draw | 16.62% | 20.45% | 19.04% | 19.38% | 18.87% |
| Home Favourites Lose | 13.53% | 17.09% | 17.24% | 19.03% | 16.72% |
| Away Favourites Win | 17.11% | 13.06% | 13.06% | 12.18% | 13.66% |
| Away Favourites Draw | 6.84% | 7.38% | 7.54% | 7.84% | 7.40% |
| Away Favourites Lose | 7.97% | 7.58% | 8.89% | 8.08% | 8.13% |
You should line up the 4 leagues betting odds on a spreadsheet and using the spreadsheet and your football knowledge see where there may be some value based on the historic percentages above.
I have added below the most popular football betting odds below, and the percentage they refer to.
Betting Odds And Percentages
| Betting Odds Decimal | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|
| 1.25 | 80% |
| 1.33 | 75.19% |
| 1.4 | 71.43% |
| 1.5 | 66.67% |
| 1.6 | 62.59% |
| 1.8 | 55.56% |
| 2.0 | 50% |
| 2.10 | 47.62 |
| 2.50 | 40.00% |
| 2.75 | 36.36 |
| 3.00 | 33.33% |
| 3.25 | 30.77 |
| 3.50 | 28.57 |
| 3.75 | 26.67% |
| 4.00 | 25% |
| 4.33 | 23.09% |
| 4.5 | 22.22% |
| 4.75 | 21.05% |
| 5.0 | 20% |
| 5.25 | 19.05% |
| 5.5 | 18.18% |
| 5.75 | 17.39% |
| 6.0 | 16.67% |
You can check the betting odds of English Football matches by using the OLBG.com Tipping Pages.
Here is an example of a Championship match in 2020 from the OLBG.com Tipping Competition
The odds quoted are BEST ODDS.
The away team when favourite in the Championship as Norwich are has a current winning percentage of 45.11%
The draw when there is an away favourite in the championship has a current winning percentage of 27.07%
The home win when there is an away favourite has a current winning percentage of 27.83%.
| Team | Odds | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke | 3.2 | 31.25% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 30.30% |
| Norwich | 2.4 | 41.67% |
If you have any questions on the percentages and how you can take advantage please post below.
The author of the blog Davidg3907 who is a sports statistics expert will be happy to reply.
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