Adding Extra Value to 1X2 Bets: Part 3 - Goal Quantities

Updated: 4300 Other

The over/under 2.5 market has exploded over recent years, withmany punters trying to take advantage of generally quite commonknowledge regarding the goalscoring nature of certain teams.Unfortunately the bookies have also sensed this opportunity, withthe majority of 'obvious' overs and unders

Adding Extra Value to 1X2 Bets: Part 3 - Goal Quantities
Darren Brett Tipster Competition Manager

Horse Racing, greyhounds and snooker specialist with thirty years experience of writing about sport across multiple platforms. A QPR and Snooker fan

The over/under 2.5 markets has exploded over recent years,

Many punters are now trying to take advantage of generally quite common knowledge regarding the goalscoring nature of certain teams.

The Types of Bet now available on the goals market means every bettor is spoilt for choice. 

Unfortunately, the bookies have also sensed this opportunity, with the majority of 'obvious' overs and unders only available at very low prices. 

goal

Knowing that the majority will bet on the obvious outcome, they are able to keep reducing the odds to such a low level which makes it difficult to make a profit.

You will see from the monthly comments table of 'Football Goals over/under' that the profit margins across a month are usually quite low.

It is also rare to find the same tipster topping the table twice in the same year.

Therefore I am proposing a different way of looking at the goals markets, namely going one step further and betting using the over 3.5 or under 1.5 goal markets.

Or why not be even braver and actually predict the exact number of goals.

If you missed my previous articles on finding extra value, you can find them here: Part 1 / Part 2 

For further reading on bet types please visit the betting school. 


Exact Goal Quantities - Be More Specific!

One can find some really fantastic prices when choosing the exact numbers of goals in a game, 

Even just choosing '2 or 3 goals, and so covering the 2 most likely quantities for the majority of teams will usually give odds around even money or even better. 

For specific numbers the odds are usually 3 or better, and sometimes much larger. 

Here are the best odds for exact goals in the 2020 Champions League Semi-Final between Leipzig and PSG 

Exact Number Of Goals Best Betting Odds
1 7.0
2 4.33
3 4.0
4 5.0
5 7.5
6 13
7 17
8 34


You'd be surprised by how many teams have a heavy bias for an exact number of goals in their games, and if we can find games featuring two sides with the same modal goal number we can find ourselves with a very secure bet with fantastic odds, 

Especially when that modal number is one of the rarer goal tallies such as 1 or 4 and above. 

There are plenty of examples of teams who have a large percentage of their games containing certain goals, and it is unsurprisingly that the source of teams with lower modal goal values is generally Portugal and France. 

There are sure to be plenty of options in the lower leagues of England and in other countries in Europe and around the World. 

This information can be used however you wish, but it is worth noting that although, for example.

goal

The counter-argument to this point is that you are more likely to get better odds for larger ‘exact goal number' predictions in these traditionally low-scoring leagues.

Another point worth making when talking about these kinds of bets is that patience is a must, as we are talking about quite long odds bets here, with reasonably low hit rates.

If you are going to bet on a game involving xxx team having exactly 6 goals, and then give up when the first game has perhaps 4 goals, then you may as well not bother in the first place. 

Under 1.5 and Over 3.5 - Nearly the Same Security with Multiple Times the Value

While we may find some games which scream over or under 2.5 goals, these are often also acknowledged by the bookmaker, with tiny odds given which make many (though not all) of these bets unworthy of the risk. 

Why not, then, ditch the tradition of using 2.5 as our benchmark in these games, and take an often much more appealing price for not a lot more risk?

This is where I propose the use of the under 1.5 and over 3.5 markets for increased profitability.

Here you can again see the Champions League Semi-Final 2020

RB Leipzig v PSG Under 1.5 Goals Over 3.5 Goals
Best Odds 5.5 Betfair 2.45 Betfair


Some teams, for example, may show very few games having exactly 2 or 3 goals, meaning the extra value added by using these longer odds markets is just that, extra value.

 I've probably exhausted the use of Liverpool as my primary example of a team where extra value can be gained by looked at some more unusual markets, but here is another such example that cannot be ignored. 

Over 2.5 is one of the most common bets taken on games, but in 2020 Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester City games averaged 3.11, 3.24, and 3.61 respectively. 

Those 3 teams + West Ham United averaged over 33% of games having 3.5 goals + in 2020. 

107 games out of 380 had over 4 goals in the 2019/20 season. 

goal

All this information can be easily attained using a website that has become my favourite when looking for unusual markets, and in general at goal markets, which is soccerstats.com. 

A simple click on the required league and then on ‘Goals' take us to a brilliant table showing us the percentages each teams goals.

With the use of this easily decipherable information, one can find excellent longer odds selections in particular when using the goal markets. 

A simple example of this, and a useful one when explaining how it can be useful to use Under 1.5 goals when looking at potential low-scoring games.

As an example, Sheffield United had 34% of games under 1.5 goals. 

If Sheffield United are taking in another low scoring team we should expect a fair price from the bookies to be around 2.4, however, it can be possible to get odds of over 3.0 with many bookmakers.

Using these methods it can be possible to find odds with excellent value in comparison to when using the simple over/under 2.5 goals market, and without losing much of the security that one feels one has found when coming across candidates for these bets.

Of course many and most teams have a large number of goals involving exactly 2 or 3 goals, meaning that the over/under 2.5 market is much more suitable. 

All I ask from you is to have a quick check before placing any of these bets to see if there could be more value attained from choosing a slightly different market. It won't take long, and it could earn you lots more profit. 

Thanks for your reading, and I hope something can be gained from the information and ideas I have provided.

If you are interested in reading part 1 of my series, which has a look at how to find much better value odds by using HT/FT markets to full effect rather than the simple 1X2 market, you can click here

If you missed part 2, where I have a look at how to find value bets based around goal timings, you can find it here.
 

You can follow me on Twitter @DanBradleyTips

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