Horse Racing, greyhounds and snooker specialist with thirty years experience of writing about sport across multiple platforms. A QPR and Snooker fan
The over/under 2.5 goals markets has exploded over recent years.
Image: shutterstock
Many punters are now trying to take advantage of generally quite common knowledge regarding the goalscoring nature of certain teams.
The types of football bet now available on the goals market means every bettor is spoilt for choice.
Types of Football Bet
Unfortunately, all the best betting sites have also sensed this opportunity, with the majority of 'obvious' overs and unders only available at very low prices.
Knowing that the majority will bet on the obvious outcome they are able to keep reducing the odds to such a low level which makes it difficult to make a profit.
You will see from the OLBG monthly tipping comments table of 'Football Goals that the profit margins across a month are usually quite low.
It is also rare to find the same football tipster topping the table twice in the same year.
Therefore I am proposing a different way of looking at the goals markets, namely going one step further and betting using the over 3.5 or under 1.5 goal markets.
Or why not be even braver and actually predict the exact number of goals.
Danilo Borges/Portal da Copa copa2014.gov.br Licença Creative Commons Atribuição 3.0, CC BY 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
Exact Goal Quantities - Be More Specific!
One can find some really fantastic prices when choosing the exact numbers of goals in a game.
Even just choosing '2 or 3 goals, and so covering the 2 most likely quantities for the majority of teams will usually give odds around even money or even better.
For specific numbers the odds are usually 3 or better, and sometimes much larger.
Here are the best odds for exact goals in a 2024 EPL match between Liverpool and Chelsea.
| Exact Number Of Goals | Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| 1 | 8.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 |
| 3 | 4.33 |
| 4 | 4.6 |
| 5 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 |
| 7 or more | 11 |
You'd be surprised by how many teams have a heavy bias for an exact number of goals in their games, and if we can find games featuring two sides with the same modal goal number, we can find ourselves with a very secure bet with fantastic odds,
This is especially true when that modal number is one of the rarer goal tallies, such as 1 or 4 and above.
There are plenty of examples of teams whose large percentage of games contain certain goals, and it is unsurprisingly that the source of teams with lower model goal values can be found in the Portugal Primera League and France Ligue 1.
There are sure to be plenty of options in the lower leagues of England and other countries around the World, most notably in South America. 
The counter-argument to this point is that you are more likely to get better odds for larger 'exact goal number' predictions in these traditionally low-scoring leagues.
Another point worth discussing these kinds of bets is that patience is a must, as we are talking about long-odds bets with reasonably low hit rates, it is all about the value you are getting when selecting longer odds.
If you are going to bet on a game involving xxx team having precisely six goals and then give up when the first game has perhaps four goals, then you may as well not bother in the first place.
Master the Art of Value Betting and Maximize Your Winnings
Under 1.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals
While we may find some games which scream over or under 2.5 goals, these are often also understood by the bookmaker who only offer tiny odds.
Why not, then, ditch the tradition of using 2.5 as our benchmark in these games, and take an often much more appealing price for not a lot more risk.
This is where I propose the use of the under 1.5 and over 3.5 markets for increased profitability.
Below you can see the most common EPL results from the 2023/24 season
| EPL | Games | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 - 1 | 38 | 10% |
| 2 - 1 | 31 | 8% |
| 2 - 2 | 27 | 7% |
| 3 - 1 | 26 | 7% |
| 1 - 2 | 24 | 6% |
| 2 - 0 | 24 | 6% |
| 1 - 0 | 22 | 6% |
| 0 - 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 0 - 2 | 19 | 5% |
| 3 - 0 | 18 | 5% |
| 1 - 3 | 17 | 4% |
| 3 - 2 | 13 | 3% |
| 0 - 0 | 11 | 3% |
| 2 - 3 | 10 | 3% |
| 4 - 1 | 9 | 2% |
| 5 - 0 | 8 | 2% |
| 1 - 4 | 7 | 2% |
| 0 - 3 | 7 | 2% |
| 4 - 2 | 6 | 2% |
Some teams, for example, may show very few games having exactly 2 or 3 goals, meaning the extra value added by using these longer odds markets is just that, extra value.
I've probably exhausted the use of Liverpool as my primary example of a team where extra value can be gained by looked at some more unusual markets, but here is another such example that cannot be ignored.
Here you can see the Liverpool v Chelsea goals market from 2024.
| Liverpool v Chelsea | Under 1.5 Goals | Over 3.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Best Odds | 7.0 Betfair | 2.1 Betfair |
Over 2.5 is one of the most common bets taken on games, but in one season Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester City games averaged 3.11, 3.24, and 3.61 respectively.
Those 3 teams + West Ham United averaged over 33% of games having 3.5 goals.
In the 2023/24 EPL season over 44% of games had over 3.5 goals, with the average goals per match 3.28
All this information can be easily attained using a website that has become my favourite when looking for unusual markets, and in general at goal markets, which is soccerstats.com.
Also take a look at the range of football articles on OLBG, a couple of which i have highlighted below.
Ultimate Guide on How to Use Football Form
With the use of this easily decipherable information, one can find excellent longer odds selections in particular when using the goal markets.
As an example, Sheffield United when relegated had 34% of games under 1.5 goals.
If Sheffield United are taking in another low scoring team we should expect a fair price from the bookies to be around 2.4, however, it can be possible to get odds of over 3.0 with many bookmakers.
Both Teams To Score Advice
Using these methods it can be possible to find odds with excellent value in comparison to when using the simple over/under 2.5 goals market, and without losing much of the security that one feels one has found when coming across candidates for these bets.
Of course many and most teams have a large number of games involving exactly 2 or 3 goals, meaning that the over/under 2.5 market is much more suitable.
All I ask from you is to have a quick check before placing any of these bets to see if there could be more value attained from choosing a slightly different market.
It won't take long, and it could earn you lots more profit.
