ADDICTED TO CONSUMPTION.

ADDICTED TO CONSUMPTION.

With the Christmas period now drawing to a close, the sales are now in full swing with people knocking each other over to get their hands on a massively reduced kettle. I was fortunate enough to be reading an article this week all about the sales and what surprised me the most were the amount of items on the top sellers list that people would simply already own. The only reason people were out in force to buy this stuff is that they had been told they needed it, similar to an otherwise rational person that simply cannot resist buying a new cell phone every 6 months, the device invented as a mobile telephone is now at a stage where telephone calls themselves are irrelevant.

In looking at the deals it is hard to rationalise human behaviour , unless you are familiar with the behaviour of bookmakers and the carrots they dangle at “shop punters”, in which case we can make the case that the layers cottoned on to the power of suggestion years ago……….

WAS SARAH CONNOR CRAZY?

Sarah Connor was of course the heroine of the Terminator films, who was completely terrified of the “machines” taking over the world, she was passed off by everybody including her own family as a nut job, but it appears she may have been right with the world domination theory she was maybe off when it came to the make and model.

I am of course on about fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs), but this story starts a long time before these things dominated betting shops, FOBTs may well be the latest, but for years bookies have been down the road of suggestion towards compulsion.

It may seem almost incredible to younger readers that for years in Britain if you were backing off course, even money was actually odds on as you had to pay tax with every bet, it may also seem even more fanciful to not be allowed to place a single on a football match but it is only maybe 20 years ago that this was the situation, it was a rule of thumb that off course the majority of bets available were mug bets.

Betting tax effectively made many off course punters bet in multiples as simply the logistics of trying to bet and make a profit on singles was absolutely mind boggling (it is largely still the case!), bearing in mind that if you are making a profit of 10% you are considered to be doing well in professional circles and that betting tax was 9% you would effectively need to be making 20% to come out with a 10% ROI.

IF YOU SUGGEST SOMETHING, INTRODUCE COUNTDOWNS AND DO IT QUICKLY AND REGULARILY, STACKING THESES SUGGESTIONS ON TOP OF ONE ANOTHER IN A QUEUE, YOU GIVE PEOPLE LESS TIME TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION AND INDUCE A STATE OF PANIC.

 The easiest example of stacking that comes to mind is buying a SUBWAY sandwich, when the shop is quiet the fella behind the counter clips along making the sandwich is a nice orderly fashion, as more people come into the shop he has an ever increasing list of “in play” tasks and decisions to make and a sense of panic tends to engulf the shop as he runs between the oven, the meats, the salads and the sauces.

ALREADY THINKING OF THE NEXT BET

 The bookmaking industry in shop has this down to a fine art, events are popping off at such a pace punters don't know whether they are coming or going. The 49s draw is overlapping the early morning harness racing from Peru, with Argentinian greyhounds racing just as Romford are loading ,this is doubled up on screen with South African flat racing and the ever increasing “machine tournaments”. Twenty second lulls in the action are filled the glorious virtual greyhounds, horses, and virtual motocross (??????!!!!!!!!). It makes me dizzy just writing about it.

This is one of the easiest ways to induce irrational punting, events are stacked and the race to race punters enter into a state of hysteria, picking up and dropping slips and pens while running back and forth from screen to screen, sometimes you can end up in the bizarre situation of a punter watching two different events and a numbers draw and all before ten o clock!!!

NECTAR or ODDS ON??

Is there anything more annoying than walking into a fuel station in the morning and facing the Spanish inquisition as you try to pay for fuel?

Do you have a Nectar card?

Would you like a Nectar card?

Can we interest you in our card?

Can we interest you in our special offer today? This is invariably a 5 bars of chocolate for the price of four, fizzy drinks etc. although last week I was actually offered a TORCH, in fairness I would have taken it , but I now have 34 bounty's in the glove box from last week's visit and am struggling for space !!

This phenomenon has also sprang into action since the introduction of FOBTs, it is seemingly impossible now to walk in and strike a bet without being hassled to enter some inane contest on Rainbow Riches or some other naff sounding nonsense. Shop staff are under increasing pressure to push these things as they are responsible for keeping at least 50% of shops open.

PREMIER LEAGUE? YOU'RE HAVING A LAUGH !

 The shops also give you the inside track on the day's events, provided by a panel of experts these range from Chris Kamara to the likes of Robbie Savage. It never ceases to amaze how far we are behind the Americans in terms of what is deemed an “expert” in the sports arena, why on earth would playing a sport qualify one to advise on punting at it , it is a bit like asking a McDonalds employee to advise you on obtaining Michelin star for your restaurant.

TIMEFORM TURNS.

I have always trusted the opinions and ratings of Timeform , however they were always a patronising bunch, I have lost count of the number of times Jim McGrath has waxed on about a 4/7 shot on the morning line saying “it's a nice sort and it should go well”, 4/7 tells us it's a nice sort and should go well !! their rating never actually apportioned any real importance to value (in spite of what they may claim). They have now sold out to the enemy and while their bold claims about 75% of their horses finishing in the first two, may be impressive they are also irrelevant, as they are more over bet now than they have ever been, the years old (and free) FINEFORM ratings can get a similar strike rate and lose money, the percentage of horses finishing in position is largely irrelevant without knowing the SP of the horses in question.

GOING SHOPPING? HAVE YOUR LIST WRITTEN BEFOREHAND.