£700 for a television ?

 The Philosopher and Mathematician Russell could have been talking about lots of areas, especially when we read social media. 

Betting Absurdity

I sat at the bar next to Andy one of my oldest friends, I had played a blinder I thought sitting with my slip that had 14/1 scribbled on it.  

The slip was now trading at 7/1 according to the female and Big Mac, although with no access to a computer I had to let him run.

Something dawned on me that day that has stayed with me ever since, I mean I had often read racing books written by the pros on the importance of being different and going against the crowd, yet on this day it seemed just the importance of common sense.

I was looking at the betting market and undertaking form study in a completely different way to everybody around me, but only because everybody around me seemed for these few hours to have lost their minds completely.

Gold Cup Day 2006

It was Gold Cup Day 2006 and the betting public was red hot for an Irish raider, but not the unknown type that we often get chinned with, it was the talented Beef Or Salmon trading at 4/1, the horse was favourite at Cheltenham for the Gold Cup.

I sat in amazement as the comments flew at me.

This had to be “his year”, 

The reason he had not won a Gold Cup was simply that he had been around at the wrong time, the “Best Mate” era. 

I turned to my mate Andy and re-assured him not to worry, we were on War of Attrition at a tidy price (easy to say now!!), but Andy was worried because he had ignored me and gone with Beef Or Salmon.

The thing with Beef is that he ticked an awful lot of boxes.

He was a top-class chaser, top-class 3 miler and when he sang he shattered the windows,

This was a horse who a few years earlier had made Best Mate look like a claimer in the Lexus. 

However, I know it has been laboured but I'm about to get to the point.

Beef Or Salmon hated Cheltenham, despised the place, he had never looked like a top-class chaser or a top class 3 miler at Prestbury Park, and when he sang here the windows didn't even notice him.

There are many ways to break down a horse race hundreds of stats and hundreds of angles can be examined, just look at the how to find winners article at the OLBG betting school. 

There are however two very powerful tools that can be used, one is the eyes and the other is the mind.

In examining the horses form only briefly it was obvious that at no point should he have been a 4/1 favourite and yet he was, on his form.

At Cheltenham, it would have been hard to justify backing him at 20/1.

Every week this happens at racecourses and in betting shops around Britain, horses that are unsuited dramatically by conditions are backed off the boards to do something that they don't do very often, which is win. 

Example

I mean let's look at it logically, if I came up to you and said” I have a television for sale it is brilliant, however it is region locked, only suitable for a European power supply and it used to have a fantastic picture but now it is starting to show its age.

It is worth £100 but I will let you have it for £500” 

You probably wouldn't take me up on the offer and you would be right as I have told you that it is overpriced.

I then reveal that I already have an offer on the table of £600 so now it's going to cost you £700. 

Our TV is now going to cost you 7 times what it is worth and is clearly not suited to your home,

This is usually the point the punter steps in to buy the TV, he does this simply because a load of other punters have got the deal at £500 and £600 , if he is not careful he may miss the £700 and end up paying £1000 ,

It is like a fire sale for the insane, the shrewd punter brought the TV 4 hours ago for £70.

Due Diligence

 Examine everything you are told, if Alan Potts is telling you it may be worth knowing if Jim the painter is telling you and unless it is about a gloss finish, it is probably best ignored.

 Only sit in the traffic if nobody else is doing so, only take the slip road if nobody else is doing so, take the most logical route, people sit in the same jams every day. There is always a choice you simply have to think.

 People will tell you to wait for the right bet but remember you have to be turning your money over, turnover is key to making money.

 Not turning your money over? Expand your pool, if you are studying 20 games a week and finding 1 bet, there is a good chance if you study 100 games you may find 5.

The most overlooked aspect of serious betting is turnover if you are only wagering 20 times a year you increase the need to be right dramatically.

 If it won't make money at level stakes, it won't make money, staking plans are not a way of turning you into a winning punter.

They can maximise winnings and minimise losses but to profit at this game you have to bet when the price is right, win often enough to make the previous statement relevant, and be damn good to do so.

Don't like losing? You are in trouble; value betting involves losing individual bets on a scale that would previously have been unacceptable. 

A mug needs to be right often as his ego is invested in his selection as much as his wallet is.

Value Is Subjective 

People often cite the toss of the coin or the dice example as a way of assessing value, while it is a basic concept that is correct, it is not strictly accurate when trying to assess sports bet.

So we assume that you are offered 6/5 on the flip of a coin that is of course value, however, you need to be sure that 6/5 is going to be available often enough for the odds to work in your favour, the guy needs to be rolling that dice more than once!

Ace Rothstein: In the casino, the cardinal rule is to keep them playing and keep them coming back. The longer they play, the more they lose, in the end, we get it all.

Ace was a fictional character from the 1995 movie CASINO; he was however based on arguably the greatest sports handicapper the world has ever seen, FRANK “LEFTY” ROSENTHAL who, such was his prowess when he bet, changed odds lines across the USA (MOB controlled books outside of Las Vegas).

If you examine the above text it explains my point probably better than I can when Ace talks about the cardinal rule he is talking about the casino having the edge,

The edge is small to encourage punters to play, you turn your money over frequently in a casino and that edge becomes more and more profitable (for the operator) the longer you play.

Hence the casino has that 6/5 on the coin toss available for themselves 24/7, the drinks, the food, the comps are all to make you more comfortable so that you play, as Ace pointed out “it's all been arranged just for us to take your money” 

Unless of course, you are counting cards, in which case you are simply barred.

Conclusion

Well, that's the debut blog out of the way! 

I'm going to try and keep them interesting and will try and look at different values and theories,

I do think a hell of a lot and it will be nice to get some of it on paper. 

I would like to thank OLBG for the opportunity to do this.

Finally I am not a Portsmouth supporter or a Portsmouth hater, the POMPEYBUSTER name goes back to the need for a screen name on Xbox live years ago when trying to set up. 

Hastily I lumped my dog and my father's dog into one BUSTER and POMPEY.