4:05 Southwell Tips

Immediate Effect won with his ears pricked over CD last time. He surely had some more left in the locker, and that'll come in handy today. GL.

Hot Cash is a 3-year-old trained by Jack Channon and remains a colt. He is 2/6 wins and has placed in one run on the AW. He looks progressive, winning last time out, posting a career-high RPR of 92 under today's jockey, Callum Rodriguez. The return to the AW could suit, being out of a dam that ran just twice on AW and finished 2-3, posting a RPR of 109. Jack Channon does well with runners residing in the top three in the betting, landing some 100 winners, and he has a 35.2% win strike rate YTD. Hot Cash can defy his 5lb hike before going on to contend in better races in the near future.

This horse has arguably the best course form of any in the race, and Harry Davies rides this course better than most too, with an incredible 5 wins and 6 places from his last 16 rides here in the last year. The 2nd on debut over C&D was when chasing home a very good horse, and after that, he won here well with the well-beaten 4th and 5th both proving since that they are 80-82 type horses. So, DB mark of 85 here certainly looks a winnable mark to me now that he's returning to this C&D after disappointing on turf last time out.

Has run well @ class 4 level Turf/Aw and looks up to this class 3 based on those efforts. Is a C/D winner, good jockey back up who is a dual winner on selection and very shrewd trainer who is in teriffic form last 14 days @ 33 percent with a Lsp of 26.75, is 19 percent with a Lsp of 15.86 on his 3yo's here last 5 seasons, making current 8.50 very good Ew value in the race.

Trainer Harry Charlton is having a good season so far. Tremolo, who won at Chelmsford last time out, can add to Charlton's season tally.

STATEIRA looks worth an each way interest for 4 places at her current odds of 9/1. She is 1 from 1 at the track, having won comfortably by 2 lengths over 7f here on debut under today’s jockey Nicola Currie. She’s only run four times in total, with AW form figures of 134. That third-place effort back in April now reads really well??'she finished 3.25 lengths behind Kon Tiki and 2 lengths behind Life Is Beautiful, horses now rated 100 and 98 respectively. STATEIRA, by contrast, gets to run off a mark of 79 today. For a much more detailed write-up please see my X feed.

Only win came on debut but has finished 2nd on a couple of occasions, including over this course and distance. That form gives an each-way chance.

Olly Sangster trains Loch Leven. This is a place just up the road from where I live and I am able to walk around, actually in Kiross, and the Woollen Mill is on the edge of the loch. As a matter of fact, Lucinda Russell trains just over the back of the loch. Loch Leven has substance to be of significant interest with Billy Loughnane in the saddle, who could be having his mount in a prominent position as last seen when Richard Kingscote was in the plate. This was the filly's first run of the season and could be backing up this place position with a winning run, keeping on at the finish.

Nahash is another that has been running well on the AW but not so good on turf. He gets back on the AW today, where I would expect to see improvement over the April run here when third off a 76. Adam gets back on top, who was in charge for those three good AW runs, including a maiden C5 win. EW 4P

Won his debut in September last year before being sent over to run in a hot race at Longchamp. Finished last year with a 6th of 12 on 7th November, beaten 6 1/2L over 1m 5yds carrying 9st 11lb. Was off then until 11th May when 5th of 6 over 1m 2f 42yds, but his race read says, “missed break, raced keenly, headed 1f out, faded.” Will strip fitter for that today and interestingly dropped to 1m 13yds and a change in jockey with Hollie Doyle taking over. Rating drops three points, so looks nicely weighted with 8st 10lb.

Lack of pace in here drew me towards a front runner in the shape of Lovely Spirit, who goes up in trip for this seasonal debut. With plenty of stamina on her dam's side, there should be genuine hope she can stay this far, and she gets a bottom weight of 8st 7lbs to assist in that regard. She hasn’t yet gone off bigger than 7/2 in 6 starts in lower grades, so whilst she could be genuinely outclassed, she does have one piece of form when beating a now 88-rated horse in receipt of 3lbs to suggest she could be well treated off a mark of 74. It will be some ask to be ready for this fairly competitive event, but on balance, you’re compensated by her price.