4:18 Perth Tips

Brought up a hat-trick of bumper wins last year and then shaped well on hurdles debut at the back end of the year, before winning his novice. Off for 7 months but looks on a reasonable opening mark.

REBELLIOUS GALE has won a hurdle race at 2m 6f. He unseated the rider in a race over 3m at Kilbeggan on his latest outing last month. The course, distance, and going should suit. He seems well treated and could well be able to win this race.

The model I run suggests Dalileo can win this one. This result has been driven by Dalileo having the highest RPR of this smaller 5-horse race. It has the lowest official ranking and subsequently goes out carrying the lowest amount of weight around this 2m 7f longer trip. It is a prior course and distance winner, so knows how to win here, and came first when last out only 10 days ago. Wheeled out quickly again to try and take advantage of the form. Early market pricing suggests this is wide open with all 5 being priced for roughly a 20% chance of winning. The model thinks the value bet is skewed towards Dalileo. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator, driven by the small gap back to second in the race simulation. This translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Takt De Touques has been off the track for 204 days and is ridden by a claimer. With a lack of a recent run, he is reluctantly passed over. The selection is Buy Some Time, who is twice a course and distance winner and takes a drop in class. Last April, he won a 100,000 euros handicap at Punchestown, and that form looks pretty good in this context.

The 7yo has been in good form this year, a win, two very near misses and an unlucky fall at the last, five weeks ago, when holding every chance. The front two were well clear of the rest in that last race and the winner has boosted the form since. A stronger jockey booking for this handicap he’s worth another chance.