2:33 Perth Tips

The model I run suggests Conquer The Breeze can win this one. This result has been driven by Conquer The Breeze having a comparably high RPR to the other runners in the field but an official ranking which leaves him looking very well treated off this mark. The official ranking being lowest subsequently means stepping out carrying the lowest weight over this 2m trip on good ground. The jockey on board also claims a further 3 lbs, taking the total weight differential to the top weight and current favourite to be over 2 stone (!). This is significant and should be telling by the end. The model has issued a 'very low' stake indicator which translates to a 0.5pt bet on a scale of 0-4.

Having switched to a new stable, Salamanca Bay was running a huge race and was leading by three lengths going into the final fence. Unfortunately, he made an error and fell. He is up two pounds from that race and today he drops down to a class four race. Providing he puts in a clear round of jumping, taking Salamanca Bay to make amends and win.

A previous C/D winner over the hurdles, and if it can recapture that form over fences, then it has an each-way shout this afternoon. The trainer has her horses going well at the moment.

Fostered Phil is in excellent form with back-to-back wins and appears well-treated again in this lineup. His stamina and jumping have looked sharper in recent starts, and he should remain competitive if setting the pace early. Recommended bet: Fostered Phil to win

Can be hit and miss. I tipped him to win here 10 days ago, and he ran a poor race. He retains ability and can bounce back from that run based on his past.

Two runs this year for the 8-year-old, after 17 months off the track, and his fitness should be better now. No match for the winner but only 2 lengths behind the runner-up five weeks ago. It was a strongly run affair, and he probably didn’t help his chances by matching strides with the runaway front runner. On a handy mark now going off his old form.

Sword Of Fate is a 12-year-old veteran by Beneficial, trained by L Kerr with Peter Wadge in the saddle, carrying a win rate of 13% and a place rate of 35% from 85 starts. He has a solid course record with four wins at Perth, including over course and distance, and he has also won in this class and on similar going. That said, he was well held last time at Cartmel and has not been firing yet this season. He tends to race prominently and is now 2lb below his last winning mark. If he does bounce back today, he is with a chance here.